short downside puts winning right now.
EXAS April options mis-priced
- Thread starter vanv0029
- Start date
EXAS:
I sold 1 (one) April $7 put for $45.
I'll take 100 shares at $7. If there's a problem they can probably fix it... and if they can't somebody else (e.g. BMS) can buy them and maybe THEY can fix it. Either way it will be a long time before the whole story is told.
BTW: Implied Volatility really is that high.
You bought the shares outright???
WOW... that's against my religion. I sold an Oct $10 put for $270.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013...News&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43
so my April $7 put will produce a 7 - .45 = 6.55 acquisition price
while my Oct $10 put will produce a 10 - 2.70 = 7.3 acquisition price.
Currently I am showing a premarket price of 6.68 . I got my 'cover' notice from Optionsxpress.
If we open at 6.68 my net loss will be $49. This is why I don't plunge into this kind of situation.
I think this is a good result, but the people who DO plunge are mostly a bunch of amateurs who are now in a panic.
I may just take the 200 shares and wait.
I sold 1 (one) April $7 put for $45.
I'll take 100 shares at $7. If there's a problem they can probably fix it... and if they can't somebody else (e.g. BMS) can buy them and maybe THEY can fix it. Either way it will be a long time before the whole story is told.
BTW: Implied Volatility really is that high.
You bought the shares outright???
WOW... that's against my religion. I sold an Oct $10 put for $270.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013...News&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43
so my April $7 put will produce a 7 - .45 = 6.55 acquisition price
while my Oct $10 put will produce a 10 - 2.70 = 7.3 acquisition price.
Currently I am showing a premarket price of 6.68 . I got my 'cover' notice from Optionsxpress.
If we open at 6.68 my net loss will be $49. This is why I don't plunge into this kind of situation.
I think this is a good result, but the people who DO plunge are mostly a bunch of amateurs who are now in a panic.
I may just take the 200 shares and wait.
I thought at the time that in the midst of all the euphoria, you were taking a pragmatic view in terms of risk management.
The reaction of the market to the data release proves your caution was justified.
Thanks. But a loss is a loss.
Interesting market reaction to EXAS study. Market reaction is negative
on interpretation not data. Namely, only 42% versus 57% result, as
found by previous study, detetection of pre-cancer polyps up to 1 cm. 2cm
targeted 67% sensitivity (ability to find) was reached.
EXAS President was just on CNBC so I think pre-market fall will be partially
reversed so EXAS might be good for traders. I think he is right that the
test will be approved by the FDA and used because there is nob alternative
even close.
Multi-strike short naked puts (some as naked puts some as covered calls) works.
I now hope EXAS stock will close tomorrow at 8.99 so I get maximum numbers
of shares. My overall share cost will be around 7.50. Pin to 9.00 means I
get the shares with some profit and least use of IB margin for a large position.
I think market reaction is irrational but as a purely fundamental value trader
there are many irrationally priced stocks that are using up my margin.
Interesting for philosophers of science is that I think some of EXAS President's
analsysis is wrong because there are methodological problems with the Von Mises
sampling definition of probability everybody assumes. It is not true that
two 90% tests produce higher than 90% chance of cancer detection. It is
true that tests every few years is positive because polyps grow.
on interpretation not data. Namely, only 42% versus 57% result, as
found by previous study, detetection of pre-cancer polyps up to 1 cm. 2cm
targeted 67% sensitivity (ability to find) was reached.
EXAS President was just on CNBC so I think pre-market fall will be partially
reversed so EXAS might be good for traders. I think he is right that the
test will be approved by the FDA and used because there is nob alternative
even close.
Multi-strike short naked puts (some as naked puts some as covered calls) works.
I now hope EXAS stock will close tomorrow at 8.99 so I get maximum numbers
of shares. My overall share cost will be around 7.50. Pin to 9.00 means I
get the shares with some profit and least use of IB margin for a large position.
I think market reaction is irrational but as a purely fundamental value trader
there are many irrationally priced stocks that are using up my margin.
Interesting for philosophers of science is that I think some of EXAS President's
analsysis is wrong because there are methodological problems with the Von Mises
sampling definition of probability everybody assumes. It is not true that
two 90% tests produce higher than 90% chance of cancer detection. It is
true that tests every few years is positive because polyps grow.
Quote from jimmyjazz:
Beats me. I sold 10 Apr $6 puts for 40 cents a month ago and bought 'em back on Monday for 25 cents. Booked a smooth $123.44 after commissions and fees.
Drinks are on me, boys.
I could use a whiskey today.