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EXAS April options mis-priced
- Thread starter vanv0029
- Start date
Implied vol (red line in chart link below) has really taken off on EXAS:
http://www.optionistics.com/quotes/stock-prices/EXAS
http://www.optionistics.com/quotes/stock-prices/EXAS
Quote from smile:
Implied vol (red line in chart link below) has really taken off on EXAS:
http://www.optionistics.com/quotes/stock-prices/EXAS
It has, but it was entirely predictable. The vol must rise over time if the premium is essentially UNCH. Vols always rise over time into these binary-outcome FDA/trial results.
Quote from smile:
Implied vol (red line in chart link below) has really taken off on EXAS:
http://www.optionistics.com/quotes/stock-prices/EXAS
i put on two may 8/10 ratio backspreads... cost me 2 bills.. figuring thats probably the most i can lose.. it could sit at ten.. but highly unlikely .. who knows .. worth a shot..
+ BOT 2 EXAS MAY 17 '13 + (2) 10 - (1) 8 Call Call Vertical Spread 1.000 USD SMART 13:27:43 OptTrader 4.62 null
From what I've been reading, upside fv's are closer to 14. It seems like the long is crowded. I like the may 11 or 12 buywrite personally.
Quote from cdcaveman:
i put on two may 8/10 ratio backspreads... cost me 2 bills.. figuring thats probably the most i can lose.. it could sit at ten.. but highly unlikely .. who knows .. worth a shot..
+ BOT 2 EXAS MAY 17 '13 + (2) 10 - (1) 8 Call Call Vertical Spread 1.000 USD SMART 13:27:43 OptTrader 4.62 null
Risk is the strike-diff + debit (terminal).
Quote from newwurldmn:
From what I've been reading, upside fv's are closer to 14. It seems like the long is crowded. I like the may 11 or 12 buywrite personally.
I may CC or straddle it off if there is any vola left after the news or it becomes a "long-term investment" i.e. I am underwater.
Quote from vanv0029:
The current test is just a larger version of a previous test
that had very good results but if there is a few percent lower value anywhere. Very possible just from mechanics of a new test, stock may not rise much.
The alternative which seems to work better for some types of cancer (not
Colon cancer) is blood DNA tests which could replace the EXAS test.
Wrong on BOTH counts.
Quote from atticus:
Yeah, I realize this is a multi-faceted methlyation (et al) test. I am a bit concerned on the 57% figure on PC growths under 3CM. The convenience of the stool test beats out blood.
This is nothing to be concerned about for two reasons:
1.) The FDA is not requiring any threshold to be achieved for pre-cancer sensitivity.
2.) The 57% sensitivity for pre-cancers is right around what the sensitivity is for the pap smear. But because of the "programmability" of women going for annual pap-smear tests, the 57% sensitivity rises exponentially and cervical cancer winds up being the only cancer to be eradicated thus far.
The same will be true for Cologuard and pre-cancers.