Exact Science

[PTVtrader]

Quote from jack hershey:



when you review the calls I mentioned.

I remember very clearly how impressive it was that you were able to call sub ftt's as well as FTT's.

I'm sure your snippets are helpful to others.

I have other questions, but they are very blunt and to the point. Its your call as to how much you want to divulge.

What is very pragmatic about trading...

As I progress, I am continually amazed at just HOW complete your system is.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from piezoe:

Dear Jack. At one point I thought you just made up crap to post, but more and more i'm thinking you found your stuff written in an ancient Egyptian hieroglyphic dialect on gold tablets buried in your back yard. Tell, me. Am I on the right track here, and if so did you do the translation by yourself, or did you have help from say an angel that visited you?

Sooner or later you will find that papryus was used during that period by most.

It like saying the sermon on the mount was made up when actually it was written down 400 year before and stored in jugs by a hebrew bunch of monks (the Essenes).

Logic theory and pardigm theory are very very old and well precede markets.

What if you figure out I am using binary vectors?

What if you figure out I followed the rigor required by Keynes in paradigm theory?

What if you find out there are only 10 cases to begin to consider in binary vector finite math?

Check through the last five or six illustrations I posted. They start in 1790.

I still trade the same way I began 53 years ago. there was no PC then. No printers.

As soon as the SEC got some computing power, they were all on my ass for insider trading. They were fucking up and had to get some lessons on how markets work.

They were as stupid and humorless as your comment.

What can a fifth grader figure out about how the market operates that is so beyond you and the SEC?

Go get in a sand box and make lines in the sand and see how the stick does what it does.

This is a precision science.

You may want to reason through just what isn't cooking when you read something you can't understand.

Being a smart asshole year after year is unbecoming and you own it.

You think when you don't understand something, what you are reading is a lot of crap made up by someone else.

Do you think you could make two lines side by side and figure out with certainty just what is going on and just what isn't going on? You can't. I can.

I do not need any golden Egyptian tablets to translate or have translated for me.

You ought to read the laborious accomplishments of neuroscientists who figured out how to do workarounds of brain damaged people to bring them to full performance.

Their work was increduluous right up until it became a reproducable reality.

I don't care who walks all over me with their mistaken oreintations. You get the consequence of your bullshit on ET, not me.

The fact that you can't understand what I write is simply your fucked up mind serving your needs in a fucked up manner.

All trading systems that are capable of taking the market's offer on any fractal in any market, begin with the ten cases. Logic theory and paradigm theory prevail in finite math. One fucking sentence and you can't "get it". You fucked up your mind; that is very uncomplicated and almost irreversable.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from PTVtrader:

I remember very clearly how impressive it was that you were able to call sub ftt's as well as FTT's.


I have other questions, but they are very blunt and to the point. Its your call as to how much you want to divulge.


As I progress, I am continually amazed at just HOW complete your system is.

I don't care how blunt or terse it gets.

My goal was to help others.

The way I looked at it was to go to where they were and to jointly move forward to higher ground.

I was fortunate because my regular work at one time was to fix busted logic in big machines that were on the cutting edge of the computer industry.

I couldn't handle the inventor's orientation easily; they were intense and felt they were correct. Through that experience I learned to go to where they were and bring them to a good operational place. I learned to take very vulgar input and character assination.

But elegance and the hierarchy of logic does have its place, occasionally.

So go for it.

I don't mind the exposure of going down any road that comes along.

 

[PTVtrader]

Quote from jack hershey:

I don't care how blunt or terse it gets.

My goal was to help others.

The way I looked at it was to go to where they were and to jointly move forward to higher ground.

I was fortunate because my regular work at one time was to fix busted logic in big machines that were on the cutting edge of the computer industry.

I couldn't handle the inventor's orientation easily; they were intense and felt they were correct. Through that experience I learned to go to where they were and bring them to a good operational place. I learned to take very vulgar input and character assination.

But elegance and the hierarchy of logic does have its place, occasionally.

So go for it.

I don't mind the exposure of going down any road that comes along.

Quote from jack hershey:




So there is a need to add to the quiver, a tool set that reveals more timing precision. It is actually better because of the overlap.

The new home run potential well over laps the old home run potential ending.

This is the statement that optimizes the PF of the trading strategy.

Somewhere in the no man's zone there is a TIME that optimizes making money once there is a determination (use a tool or two) that there is an overlap.

Once you know the only conditions for home runs, then you know how to tool up for the coincidence of one failing in potential and another beginning to punch the ball out of the park.

Go for it.

Would you mind expanding on this(with charts)?

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from PTVtrader:

Would you mind expanding on this(with charts)?

Not at all. Coincidentally, I put in a flash drive that has a lot of illustrations.

As a quicky, you can go grab "putting the pieces to gether" as well.

To trade well on an ultra expert level is is not in the vein of surfer bullshitting with rcg on "reading" a chart.

We will be talking thoroughly about crossover trading PVT and stepping up from 5 to 7 trades a day on SCT to 40 trades aday to knock down 3 to 6 times the ATR.

One preface is in order since we are 296 days away from the new regs on who IS exempt.

Gensler is headed for creating a real fuck up. we as guys who will be taking the market's offer all over the world are going to see some terrific fireworks as a consequence of some major mistakes that will throw the markets out of balance.

Chatham moderates comments from boeing, Disney, IBM and a small 10B mississippi bank.

IBM siad simply that Gensler's direction would require IBM to margin more that their anual acquisition budget. Boeing said we are fucked in at least 60 c0ountires where we hedge currencies over design and build times of new planes. disney was very funny about it. Stopping global entertainment is a funny concept. The mississippi bank was going to play around as usual with the crackers who will pay the bills.

So its funny as hell, Wall street fucks up royally and large corporations have to put up margin......LOL....

our job is to handle the trading window of opportunity with finesse and precision. Nothing will change except the chunks will be bigger and faster and more often.

A lot of bigger outfits will make the high beta list and we will have jolts like in the news whereby three swings will be followed by an asyptotic regression back to the prejolt RTM line.

Remember the short guy saying "the plane".... the plane"....

Seeing the plane before it comes into view is our job and we divide that into five parts: end of continue, beginning of change, optimum change, end of change and beginning of continue.

We also need to deal with taking those 10% moves to include more than 10% and we need to get sharp with the exponent since it CAN go to over 100 in a year in the future being built for us presently..

What has to be delt with to go from 3x to 6x in the daily ATR take in SCT? Precision primarily and be at holds of two to 3 bars only. MAK did the two tables for those considerations.

All my charts in "putting the pieces together" have to be converted to ET compatible and ET does not use modern Excel sheets nor contemporary text documents. It may be a bit sluggish.

Anyway the setting is 296 days to go and all hell breaks loose because all corporations are really going to be screwed for at least 60 plus days after 15JUL11. We are blessed and will really rip.

All regulators will be overpowered globally.

NB: nine tenths of swap products are unregulated; in 296 days all swaps become regulated and only some entities will be exempt from regulation.....lol.... Dodd Frank is a major major fuck up. And Gensler is operating from a statute orientation; the hell with economics. Blowinski is really fucked too.

 

[mcdull]

Quote from jack hershey:

This exclusion has a basis.

Market rules of operation depend upon the characterisitcs of the market.

First of all "rules of operation" means HOW and WHY the market operates. Once this set of logic is in place the potential trader has the opportunity to go further in the development of his system for the extraction of the market's offer.

The HOW and WHY of a market allows the potential trader to get to "knowing that he knows". If a person knows that he knews all of the time, then he trades just like a person drives a car to get from A to B.

RTH for an instrument can be used to determine all of the above.

the other hours in between are very different for that instrument. as a matter of fact, if will not be possible for you to determine that the instrument has the same character during this time that it does during RTH.

Cetainly, if you can characterize an instrument by looking at 24/7 and get no character change, then go down that route.

By only using RTH and degapping between RTH's a person comes up with an instrument character that lends itself to a complete modelling and development where there are no flaws nor any noise nor any anomalies. What is gained in this orientation is great great advantage for taking the market's offer on any fractal in any market as long as there is liquidity.

Off hours is where liquidity is most likely sacrificed and therefore the model is also sacrificed.

By looking at various trading strategies, it can be seen that the degapping is a strategic advantage.

This is an "exact science" thread and both items I spoke of (degapping and eliminating non RTH data) are pertinent to the development of trading systems.

It is turning out that most people do not work in terms of systems. What seems to replace the systemic orientation is either greed or fear based systems.

One of the neat aspects of doing system modelling and development is that both greed and fear aspects are definite measures of design and development failure and misorientation.

Most people are not automated to any extent. For those wo are using automated degapping, you usualy get to see clearly the platform shortcomings with respect to automated degapping. This is just a consequence of the ignorance of programming and/ or the commercial management of the platform.

Dear Jack,

I am very interested in the reason why you are eliminating non-RTH and degapping. I also have a question on degapping.

Let's say:
1. the instrument traded is an index futures and the previous day carry-over channel (the fractal used by Spydertrader) is a down channel.
2. The sequence of events for reversal is not complete in the previous day.
3. The next day is having a market gap, both up or down.
The question: Is there any difference between the market gap up and market gap down? Just degap in both cases?

Thanks.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from mcdull:

Dear Jack,

I am very interested in the reason why you are eliminating non-RTH and degapping. I also have a question on degapping.

Let's say:
1. the instrument traded is an index futures and the previous day carry-over channel (the fractal used by Spydertrader) is a down channel.
2. The sequence of events for reversal is not complete in the previous day.
3. The next day is having a market gap, both up or down.
The question: Is there any difference between the market gap up and market gap down? Just degap in both cases?

Thanks.

Gap direction doesn't matter. It is a NIKE situation: Just Do It.

 

[jack hershey]

In the Cash Cow, there were several aspects of how to use a system to process raw data and add degrees of freedom. This introduced, among other places, the principle of steering and focusing using sets of degrees of freedom.

Lets look at PVT to see how the parallel consideration of two sets of things works.

I will post tables of both the universe and the batting order. the Universe is a filter that makes the elements "all look alike". This is Keynes parametric requirement of things being "in kind"

So we are comapring differnt things (stocks) but they are "in kind" in their character.

I redid the camtasia transcript of 22JUN by inserting the Sunday 08OCT hot list (Batting order). the insertion also is all in bold typeface for emphasis.

so this was a 30 minute first take that was then taken down to a 7 1/2 minute version where we steered and focussed on 14 stocks that were in the limelight.

I trade at max volume of 100,000 shares so I have to deal in partial fills. This set of charts was only taking 100,000 dollars to a million dollars. so havijng to do partial fills was not on the table. when it is the partial fills exits are interlaced with the partial fills entries.

Here we are operating to do crossovers to only hold so that 100 turns a year can be done.

The 10% target is being exceeded in all trades and double 10% is common here.

We are zooming in on five stages in an order of events. When I look at a person's trading I look at either of two things:

1. whether the person is finding a need, or

2. whether a person is oreinted to closure.

The easy way to increase the exponent is to use 1.

The easy way to make potential money is 2.

Say you read "putting the pieces together" 10 times. Make sure you split the reads into these two groups.

Lets say a trader is only marginal and only making 10% a week in stocks or under 10 points a day in the ES. He should focus on 1. that is, he should focus on entries only.

Entries and exits are the same thing but no one knows that, it seems.

Lets say RN learned to trade beyond beginner. What would the tippinmg point be for him. It would be to discover how entry is an identity with an exit. That way he would have less lagging trades and more timely trades.

If you look at the batting order, all the owned stocks have done really well already. If a person just looked for new entries, he would do exits to "have the cash" to gert into the new opportunity.

In stepping up trading in ES to make money, at some poiint a person "gets off" EOB trading. trades do not happen at EOB.

here is a pic of a Universe after close on friday. Can you tell from the list what four stocks are owned?

 

[outsource]

FTEK;CMED;GMXR;DXPE

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from outsource:

FTEK;CMED;GMXR;DXPE

It happened that

FTEK, CMED, EZPW and TIE were owned.

At any time the capital is spread equally across streams.

Attached is a flow sheet of PVT trading.

"Putting the Pieces Together shows the four streams in use and item one of each stream was the owned.

So people start PVT any time they wish and they do a weekly set of tasks and a daily trading of the batting order.

See page 17 for the batting order determined from the "list".

In this case about 10 people shared making the list and it was called the Universe.