Exact Science

[jack hershey]

Since all of this is written up, I will make references and I will focus ojn attaining advanced expert skills and knowledge.

People look for stocks systematically.

An email is sent to those available to do the IAS.

A completed IAS is sent to the Universe keepers and the column are filled in.

This include the schedule column.

the universe is sorted by the schedule column when batting orders are completed.

Today, this group doe not formalize the batting order, they just trade the Universe selections.

Here is a storey of one of the members. It illustrates going from the first batting order he used to beginning to trade the ES.

Week 1 of 1010 was the time when four streams were loaded into a 27K account.

In a quarter 62 trades were done. one wash and one loss. The money velocity averaged 150,000 dollars annualized.

In April the money velocity advanced to 250,000 annualized.

In September a commodities account was opened.

The group recieved from me my ES stuff daily during most of that time. An average of 10 to 12 pages were involved.

In the "Putting the Pieces Together" the four streams bergan with 100,000 dollars divided equally.

During 1010 this group did many things and they continue. Major foci are global natural tradegies and retruning veteran support.(3 locations presently with traing of staff included). Bolivia is a current focus to deal with child burn victims. Corporate building is also ongoing.

Typical IAS's and DAS's and Universe Excel layouts have been posted.

31 illustrations in "Putting the Pieces Together" take you through, in 5, 7 1/2, and 15 minute intervals of one day 09OCT. The illutrations are narrated.

Let us focus on expert capital extraction where the money velocity is over 100 turns a years and the profit per turn is 10 to 30 percent.

 

[mgookin]

There's no such thing as "exact science".

Anyone who has been around academics for a couple decades or longer knows this very well. What we think we know is just that; what we THINK we know. Things are disproven all the time.

The periodic table of elements.
Electric current
Physics
Time

The only thing constant is change.

 

[jack hershey]

An expert stock trader sets up a quality Universe by doing monitoring and analysis of trends in stocks.

The couimpound interest formula is his guide for selecting the Universe.

He wants a high exponent. a high profit per cycle and he reapplies profits to increase the applicatioin of capital.

Trending cycles are not up down events; they are segmented into parts where the combination of V and P form a pattern.

Using an Excel spreadsheet to schedule the trades is a consequence of examining daily or 30 minute P, V charts.

From this the columns of the Excel Universe may be completed. By filling in the 65 day average, for example, the DU, FRV and Peaking values automatically appear.

The long portion of the pattern is measured and punched in. The space between the 0 to 7 times of cycles is also listed. The combination of these two frequencies or dwells let a person scdeule.

The Universe is reviewed periodically and sub sets are formed as well. One sub set is recently owned stocks and anpothr is for stocks that have "fallen off the list".

In the past I mentioned a few of the "repeat" type schedulings of stocks that are cycling several times a year. A stock that repeats 4 times for 3 day holds, consumes 12 days. this stock did an average of 30% per turn in three days. This compounds at 289% a year. This is a good use of 12 days.

To do PVT it is a good idea to share the work.

the trading is an individual enterprise unless you set up a common meeting place and use it as a team. In Tucson, the trading day begins ahead of the employment business hours. And the trading day is over by lunch time.

Here we use a screen on a wall that is large and can be connected to several computers. Observations of the group are easy.

Some groups are remote. And gotomeeting and skype are popular.

To be expert you need to have quality information and you have to be very skilled at trend monitoring and analysis.

Don't sink your ship by insisting on an up/down mentality. switch immediately to a right/left mentality.

Keep folders on each stock and the associated IAS's and the DAS's you use during holds.

The trade a stock you use a daily, 30 min, and a 5 min chart. Set everything up as panes that can be summened when desired.

Move the paned to a close proximity when you are moving capital from one to another.

Keep an owned list similar to the illustration posted and keep a Universe list as well. Most platform lists can be sorted by columns. The unusual volume sort works quite well.

To make high money velocity, tyhe idea is to take the highest money velocity portiion of a trend only. The slower parts before and after this "beefy" period are skipped.

a crossover trade is what is done between two stocks.

You use rule 2. to get cash and you use rule 1. To enter the BEST opportunity.

you use rule 2. to leave early and you use rule 1 to enter late.

the period between a late entry and an early exit is where the most money is made.

The increased money is made by trading and compounding more cycles in a year.

Do some exercises in compounding to prove this to yourself.

Timing is how marginal analysis in capital appreciation is done. you will discover the fourth degree polynomial aspect of this curve. Plot net profit vs duration.

So lets run everyday pairs of charts where an exit of one and an entry of another is on the table. support these selections by the relative opportunities shown on the real time monitoring Universe and the real time owned list.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from mgookin:

There's no such thing as "exact science".

Anyone who has been around academics for a couple decades or longer knows this very well. What we think we know is just that; what we THINK we know. Things are disproven all the time.

The periodic table of elements.
Electric current
Physics
Time

The only thing constant is change.

Take a look at a market.

For simplicity, look at the ES.

The market is a simple system. It has participants.

RTH's define time in a finite manner.

There are records. These are available.

Some are standing records others are past events records.

It is very precise and observable.

You may be letting something intrude that doesn't permit you to deal with this system.

 

[Trader666]

Jack pretends, therefore it is

Quote from jack hershey:

Quote from achilles28:

Trading is NOT an exact science.

People choose whether trading is an exact science.

 

[Mav88]

This is funny. Why would someone devote time to arguing that trading is an exact science?

If you know it really is, then go learn it and then proceed to make your billions- it would be the holy grail. Spending one second of time arguing about it here would be foolish.

Jack you say you want help people, ok then use your market science to extract cash and use it to fund a hospital. If you do that I'll buy the first copy of your scientific text. Otherwise you sir are full of shoit.

 

[outsource]

Since i`m a 'Trade One Stock and One Stock Only' trader i don`t have and don`t do any lists or schedules. I do pair trading ETF and my list is the same day after day.
here is my schedule:

 

[outsource]

Quote from jack hershey:

An expert stock trader sets up a quality Universe by doing monitoring and analysis of trends in stocks.

Trending cycles are not up down events; they are segmented into parts where the combination of V and P form a pattern.

Don't sink your ship by insisting on an up/down mentality. switch immediately to a right/left mentality.

The trade a stock you use a daily, 30 min, and a 5 min chart. Set everything up as panes that can be summened when desired.

The unusual volume sort works quite well.

Do some exercises in compounding to prove this to yourself.

I found myself doing better within Confocal Lemniscate Universe;
I found myself running my vessel better by 'chunking' (as you said )in up/up and left/right mentality using multiple 'day frame';
I found that my Universe had ALWAYS had 'unusual' volume;
I found that fixed ratio in some way could be the best compounding technik.

 

[PTVtrader]

Quote from PTVtrader:

I have other questions,its your call as to how much you want to divulge.

Quote from jack hershey
I have a cycle tool too; it says a number all the time; one of 8 numbers. For this I know where I am, what is next and how fast things are changing. (actually I have three sets of these and only one (the equities one) has been posted so far.)

Don't get shy on me now.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from PTVtrader:

Don't get shy on me now.

There aren't any pairs of charts posted to do crossover trading with.

No one is that interested to do any posting.

Also I wanted to do some comments on how BF defined the trading enviroment and what the solution is that BF offers to those who have room for improvement in their approaches.

For PVT, crossover trading is how to maintain the pfofit performance and also add cycles per year. 100 plus cycles @ 10% is a good way to manage the streams of a portfolio. My limit is 100,000 shares per stream. Surpluses go to SSR which is unlimited capitalwise. The highest money velocity is in SCT but that is capital limited to five times market capacity in about 80 markets.