Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

USD/CHF and EUR/CHF can be count as a Cycle Wave DOWN,
with Primary Waves 1], 2], 3], 4] and 5] components.
USD/CHF Wave 5] may be a wave 5 failure.

 

[mu200411]

After EUR/USD rebounded to 1.18710 as Wave III3]3)4,
Wave III3]3)5 went DOWN as expected to 1.15702 near 1.152 target.
EUR/USD can go DOWN to 1.130 with or without a rebound to 1.187 first.

EUR/USD 1.130 taken out so swiftly!
This may be the end of Wave 3)3 or Wave 3)5.
Next may be a rebound of Wave 3)4 to Wave 3)3.4,
or Wave 4) to Wave 3)4

 

[mu200411]

There was Crude Oil's wave v DOWN as expected,
which fell pass $45.9 to new measured moves at $44.20, then rebounded to wave iv.
If this is Wave 3)5.4, Wave 3)5.5 may fall from near $49.65 to $28.30.
If this is Wave 4) Wave 5) may fall from near $59 to Fri 1/23/09 low at $32.70.
If this is Wave 4] there may be a 3-year sideway market again.
Note: The 6-year old beautiful Head and Shoulders pattern.

Crude Oil stays above long term support.
If this is Wave 3)5.4 the target may be $60.
If this is Wave V]IV)C4] the target may be $77.

 

[mu200411]

EUR/USD 1.130 taken out so swiftly!
This may be the end of Wave 3)3 or Wave 3)5.
Next may be a rebound of Wave 3)4 to Wave 3)3.4,
or Wave 4) to Wave 3)4

EUR/USD rebounded from 1.109 to 1.153 may be Wave III3]3)4 or Wave III3]4).
Wave III3]3)5 may go DOWN to 1.097 after a rebound to 1.124.
Wave III3]5) can go DOWN to 1.020.

 

[mu200411]

$USD (92.53) reached 2005 High at 92.63 .
There is still another wave UP to go may be to 92.9 or 94.

The wave passed the 94 target to end at 95.48 .
The set back to 93.25 is small, may be count as Wave 5)4.
Wave 3]5)5 can go UP to 99 or 102.
$USD is currently under the influence of 14-year "W" pattern.
"W" pattern target may be 108 and 113.
Note: 95.48 is near 50% Fibonacci Retracement.
: 102 is near 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement.

 

[mu200411]

Gold Wave IVc]5)3.4 rose UP to $1,282.40 invading Wave IVc]5)3.1 at $1,277.40.
If "Wave IVc]5)3.5 to $1,080 targets" didn't materialize,
we may have to change our count.

Gold rose to $1307.80 then fell.
This may be Wave IVc]5)3.4 or complex corrective wave IVc]4).
Wave IVc]5)3.5 can go DOWN to $1080.
Wave IVc]5) can go DOWN to $960.

 

[mu200411]

Silver fell as 5-wave to $15.56, may be Wave :1,
then rebounded as 3-wave to $16.48, may be Wave :2,
then fell to lower low at $15.51, may be Wave :3,
of which target may be $14.75.
Wave :5 target may be $13.9.
If there are extensions Wave IVc]5)5.5:5 target may be $12.9 or $11.25.

Silver Wave IVc]5)5.4 rebounded as high as $18.5 but was still below Wave IVc]5)5.1 then fell again.
Wave IVc]5)5.5 target may be $13.7 or $12.1 .

 

[mu200411]

AUD/USD 0.80660 target passed (low = 0.80352) .
Next may be a rebound to 0.860.

AUD/USD didn't rebounded as expected.
Wave IIc]5)3.5 extended to as low as 0.762 which is at a measured move.
Wave IIc]5)3.5 might have ended.
Wave IIc]5)4 could go UP to .83 or .86 .

 

[mu200411]

UTIL Triple Zigzag V]IV)B might have ended at 657.17 so a 13.6% fall to 567.55.
The rise from 2009 to 2014 can be counted as 5 waves though wave 3 is somewhat atypical.
Correct of this 5 waves may end near wave 4 at 467.93 or a 27.27% correction.
Supports are at 555.71 and 524.82.

 

[mu200411]

TRAN Wave 5) or Wave 5)1 might have ended at 261.8% Fibonacci advancement or a large measured move.
Wait to see the development of the "Big M" pattern.
An alternative count is the green count with TRAN a bit longer than measured move.
Another alternative count is the pink count with TRAN a bit shorter than measured move.