eurusd / 6E new Bull market ???

what a ratty week
i can get impatient with corrections, while they can be great trading opportunities
because they'll conform with a wave count, fibos and secs, there's times like last
week when the smart move would have been a buy on the 50/61.8 line and gone
on holiday rather than trying to daytrade the movement

the in-theory significant fundamental this week is Friday's NFP number, and how
correct or not the consensus estimates are compared to the NFP data - revisions ?
generally trading falls to the release often going sideways for 24 hrs or days even
until the interest rate or NFP etc is released

given this seasonally weak summer time period traders etc may have since last
Tue/Wed decided the NFP will be weak anyway so 'why wait ? buy'
T/W were significant because the formation during that period may have been an
AB reversal formation, slightly bullish as they've all been since the 1.18+ low
~ how much fundamental analysis does one allow into ones ta ? ~
~ how much fundamental analysis does one need in ones ta ? ~
so is the Aug 6-24 waves an ABC ? or ? A, now doing B to peak on Friday, and a
C to subsequently bottom at the coincidental 61.8/76.4 fibos levels at about 1.2430
the ABC idea could mean W 4 completed T/W and we're on W 5 to break the 1.33
or, that Monday will close up, completing the abc - B of the Down wave correction at
around 1.2840, possibly 1.2870 , 1.290 , + ?? then beginning the C Down - the NFP
having no relevance, or possibly stronger than expected adding to the ownside

looking at the $ chart it appears more clearly, simply, that the current Retracement
rally has done A and is doing c of B before continuing to rally into 84+

so, Monday evening Tuesday session will be the time to watch based on the idea
that's where the eurusd price will top, and begin a 400+ pip decline —
but first a reversal formation ? lasting till Friday ???

chart: 4H
 

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doing a bit of analysis of 'time to trade' and thought the attached chart may be of
interest to some - 60min of the 6E/eurusd beginning Aug 2

the blue vertical line is 6am PST, tho i'd actually be prepared at 5am - in front of the
monitor, abluted, read the news, reviewed the charts etc, since most US reports
come out at 5:30am
the pale grey vertical line is the end of the rth, 2pm PST and the orange vertical line
is 10pm sleeptime

it's about seeing which if any trading time period offers a larger potential profit period
than another. as you can see the highest volume is always during the US session
currently i trade afternoon/night so a switch to early, early, EARLY morning's going
to be a killer . . . average daily range of the euro during June ~ 146 pips
 

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can't say that i've much idea what's going on with the euro

if the price were to decline from here, it would be a strange to me ABC correction
based on the 4H chart, i'd have expected the decline to have begun last Thursday

i wonder if Aug 24-31 formation was an AB suggesting a bottom/trend change and
that what's going on now may be the B of an AB ? that will top around 1.33 ? before
the end of September ? perhaps a decline till Thur ? mirror the Aug 13-18 formation -
drop to the 1.275 area ? then continue the rally
 
the price is finally evolving into something recognisable enough to me to predict 3
trades - 2 buys 1 sell

on the basis the price is forming an AB base
buy 1 comes in around the 50/61.8 fibos area, previous Aug 24 LL of 1.25871
this buy would go to the 1.290 area and be c of an abc correction, B of an ABC from
the 1.33 H and decline to a new low
buy 2 would be the same excepting the price would rally past 1.29 , maybe reaching
1.33 or beyond, possible becoming an AB prior to the trend reversing, and still being
B of an ABC

the buys time is difficult to determine; it could be Mon - Tue session, Wed/Thur or
not until Mon next week; it's already spent nearly 3 trading weeks going thru the
formation to date, it could bottom then go thru an ab before taking off; also it's not
possible to know whether the b leg of the ab would be horizontal - similar price to
1.2587 or higher or lower than the 1.2587

the sell is for some a continuation of a sell that may have been entered last Monday
the price levels to watch will initially be the same 1.2587 area to see if the price
bottoms, or drops through to a new low
the possibilities of what the down wave could be are C of an ABC prior to a rally, the
B leg of an AB from the June 1.18 low meaning a low down to or nearer 1.18

the possibility for the buys is that the price drops to 1.25 or 1.24 area - bounces
along the way - 1.2665 , 1.2635 areas - since 1.24 is the coincidental 61.8/76.4
fibos, but next week - 21/22 maybe 24, unless there's a fast drop, then possibly
a rally for a c between the low and 1.29, or higher, a longer rallying thru October

the immediate key level is around the 1.2587 area
could the price run up to 1.280+ before it drops ?

chart: Daily
 

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last week's post was crap
the end of the AB and i had missed it . . . . . couldn't see the forest for the trees
it actually ended on Thur Sep 9 around 7pm pst
end of the B leg higher than the start of the A - bullish


the price topped at the 76.4 of the Aug 6-24 HH-LL fibo although even on the 1min
no bar closed on or above that level, a minor suggestion the price will go higher
since prices sometimes dick around closing below/above fibo levels before breaking
them and closing higher/lower; the D closed on the 61.8 of that fibo

2 time targets are Thur 23 , and longer Fri Oct 1 - based in part on the Weekly, and
a note that the Sep NFP won't be released until Oct 8 - likely to be positive
along with the Oct 1 tt various lines coincide to suggest a 1.3350 area price target
i have no wave count on this current wave, presuming the formation will complete
the B of an AB and for the price to then decline

but is it possible the high of this move will only be 1.3250 ? also a coincidence of
lines and levels, particularly the longer term 50% level fibo the price closed on on
Aug 3/10 and 85.4 of the current fibo
the W chart closes of Aug 15-Sep 5 IF the formation is an AB has a lower B leg
suggesting a weaker rally, ie this B leg won't carry as high as the Aug 1 A leg
beginning of 1.3333 , an earlier rather than later top ?

chart: Daily
 

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the $ never made it to 84, it formed a H&S and dropped to its current 79.59
when it closed at 80.49 on Aug 6 is was on the 50% of the weekly Nov09-Jun10
LC fibo, ran back up to the 38.2 and now this decline thru the 61.8
so the question is if it will continue to drop to say the 76.4 around 78.40 , or rally
back into the low 80s, which is the similar reverse question for the euro

once again the euro closed just below the 50% of the Nov09-June10 decline fibo as
well as additional fibos that are slightly higher
the two major scenarios I see are this leg being B of an AB reversal or it's B of an
ABC, both of which in short order means a drop anywhere down to 1.26 completing
what would be W4 with a fifth wave to come, or the AB, major Down
the second scenario is the rally continuing to the 1.39 area, 61.8 level + other fibos
and the projection fibos that come in at 1.3950 . this would occur after a possible
Monday only correction c of an abc down to 1.3350/30 ? which may begin soonest
after the Sunday opening ? - gap up ? and with either scenario downside first

time wise there's the case for either the 1.39 as early as the end of this week or for
the '1.26' the week of Oct 8 - I favor the 1.39 scenario

chart: Daily
 

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not much to say, still going up even tho there may be some correction this week I
don't think the top is in
main thing this week is BoE and ECB on Thursday - non event and NFP Friday -
NFP: Prior: -54,000 Consensus: 0 Consensus Range: -75,000 to 25,000 that's a
tight range with a flat Consensus, maybe we'll see some fireworks/depth charges
 
the NFP turned out to be a bit of a non event, and Thursday saw the price top-out ?
quite conveniently at the confluence of projected target lines
while the euro hit its projected target I remain ambivalent whether it will climb higher
or reverse; possible it will form a reversal formation - Tue/Wed then drop to about
the 1.36 area ? 1.35 ?? into the MidTerm elections - Nov 2 , $ rallies to 79.40ish ?


when I look at the Swiss Franc chart it looks like it's formed a reversal formation
and about to begin a drop from its record 104+ high back down to the 60s
the dollar formation tho isn't yet anywhere near as pronounced as the usdchf; while
the $ bounced off the 61.8 level in August, it only paused at the 76.4 before coming
within spitting distance of the 85.4 on Thursday, and closing low on Friday. so this
leaves me thinking it may go lower, perhaps 76.50 ? before making a retracement
rally, meaning the euro will rally until the dollar turns
but what reason does the dollar have to rally ?

I've wondered for some time if the $ April 08-current is a W 1-2 formation, currently
doing C , significantly meaning the euro is also completing the C of a somewhat
weak W 2 - low B leg
I don't expect this idea to be resolved before next year, although while the $ A leg
has 5 distinct waves, this current leg - the above aside could continue down in a
3 wave move to around 74
an alternative is the formation is an AB/inverted H&S suggesting a longer period to
base nearer the 70 level with a probable 5 waves
while I don't see the euro climbing to the 1.51 area again unless the $ goes to 70
I do see a move to the 1.44/5 area which again are major fibo levels
 
last week's action was either B of an ABC - doing C , or B of an AB/H&S reversal
formation, an aggressive one at that
I'll hold with the idea of a reversal; on the 60 and 4H the price has obviously fallen
out of the channels based on the Sep 9 low, topped with the longer 4H channel from
Aug 24 low, likewise topped on the Thursday D HC channel from the June 7 low

the previous week's HCs hit the confluence of the several fibos on my charts in the
1.39-1.3950 area, and last the run-up was into a void, excepting the HC on a major
fibo projection based on the June-August wave

so let's go with the idea a W 3 has ended and there's going to be a correction
my current correction fibo is drawn from LL Sep 10 - HH Oct 15 and Friday's low hit
and stopped at the 14.6 level and other fibos/sec lines
the correction fibo levels are at 1.38, 1.3580, 1.34 and it's these last two levels -
38.2 and 50.0 that bracket the major retracement fibos - 1.345 -1.355 area, which
is a fair drop if the price goes all the way down, with the time target of the week of
Nov 2 mid term results

week's targets: 1.38 area ? by Tuesday ? then back up to 1.395 area ? by Friday ?
$ to 77.80 ? or, 78.40 ?


chart: Daily
 

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