eurusd / 6E new Bull market ???

W

Wallace

attached is a labeled Weekly chart that illustrates what I think's gone on

look at all the major turns and you'll see that there's been a Reversal formation of
various time lengths, I'm expecting a similar one currently, lasting perhaps till the
end of the second week of August before the rally gets under way for real
however, reversal formations do not always form

the qualifier I'll add to 'Bull market' is anything from a fibo reversal correction of
the drop from the 1.51 to a rally back up to that level, perhaps even 1.60 , but not
necessarily a new high greater than 1.60

the US$ is a Short

Sun/Mon will see the week begin with probable lite volume and range due to the
US holiday - happy 4th of July - some downside first before rallying ?
the white Retracement fibo levels appear to be working so the A price targets are
the 50 and 61.8 levels - around 1.2775 and 1.30 - note where the Speed Fan line
intersects the 61.8 level
 

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Another of the few times I'm stuck deciding what's going to happen next with the price

I've a time target of Wed Jul 14 , NY morning which 'may' be a trend change point -
or not
but I can't decide from the current pattern formation what's now going on, nor how
influential is the ECB bank stress test ? will the price run Up or Down to the Fri July 23
release, or will the release be a non event ?

if the price drops to the 1.2150 area it could be part of a large AB reversal formation
that might base at the 1.19 area again, or, only go to the 1.23 area and the formation
form what might be a correction completion of a W 0-1 abc 2

so I guess from all that, my bias is to the downside, but could we get a run up to the
1.28 ? 1.29 ? area till Wednesday ?
 
nice rally last week, correction this week ? reversal formation ? - rally's topped ?

on the attached Daily chart I've drawn all the relevant retracement fibos plus
the Speed Resistance Lines fan from the Weekly, which together with the sec
intersect around the 1.3076 area of the yellow fibo 61.8 level, which coincides
with one of the longer grey fibo's 38.2 - not to say that's The HH, there's black
fibo's 38.2 level which is drawn on the whole Nov 2009 - June 2010 decline so
there's a could-be to 1.3128, especially if traders aren't bothered about the Fri
bank stress test release and don't intend closing Buys until Fri
(other coinciding fibos - black 50 and white 61.8 levels around 1.35+ . . .)
both the D and W have my hit time targets, but, an additional 'stronger' ? W
time target doesn't hit until mid August . . . like those Speed fans
91 European banks are being tested, last Friday saw the 96th US bank failure
(57 this time last year for a total 140) so the ECB banks involved in the test
are a bit of a drop in the bucket compared to what's going on in the US
 

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WSJ: 'Five Spanish Cajas Fail EU Stress Tests'
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100723-711658.html
Nov 06, 2009 'Spain in real trouble'
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Spain/Price-History
this emphasis on Spain is from watching some of a mini documentary by the BBC
about Spain where the commentator said there's one million new unsold and empty
condos in Spain now owned by banks/cajas - the buiders/developers are bankrupt


the 4H chart illustrates possibilities of an AB Reversal formation forming - meaning
a major top - end of rally - W 4 - and eventual break of 1.19, or
a bull Correction where the drop to 1.275- was A, B 1.29+ possibly completed and
C possibly underway, where C could drop to the 1.275- area - possible 1.265- area
If there's is an ABC, the H target price is 1.3650 - optimistic ?

I expect most of this week's US economic reports to be weak, and then the NFP
the week after to also be a no-gainer since it's the summer and a lot of people don't
work/look for work/quit work during for the summer, and given the price is still within
a sec on the D where that L is about 1.2775 , watch the Tue - Wed session - tt -
to see if the price takes off Up - soonest
 

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are we going to have a Down correction this week given the NFP release on Friday ?

I'm presuming the H to 1.31 was a w 3 and an ABC has started with my W 4 target a range of areas at 1.295 ? 1.290 ? 1.2975 ? 1.2775 ?
whether that'll take the rest of the week to complete I'm not sure, no reason why
traders can't ignore the release and trade the price Up to the 1.335 area after the
c W 4 is complete

both the BoE and ECB announce on Thurs - 7 & 7:45am EST, neither expected
to change current rates

4H chart with new secs and fibos
 

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my previous 3 weeks analysis have been Wrong, Wrong, and, Wrong
the saving grace has been the lines, the fibos and secs and the price target of
1.335, the price has traveled within the secs and interacted with the various fibo
levels and neared the 1.335 . has the price topped ?

in a Down trend a retracement-correction - Up will have 3 waves, and sometimes
the w 1 can be quite large. the subsequent waves formation may or may not have
the appearance of a single wave, causing one to think there's in total, a 5 wave
formation in progress, not 3
the period from June 30 to July 21 could be thought of as w 1-2 of a W 3 - w 3
hasn't completed yet ? and W 5 then could reasonably go to 1.39 in keeping with
a 5 wave scenario - target the 61.8 of the whole down trend fibo from 1.51+ —
but may anyway still only be 3 waves

using the fibo from the jan 13/10 HH , the Aug 3 close was right on the 50.0 level
and the Friday close was above it, so there's a reasonable expectation the price
will travel to the 61.8 level of around 1.3550 - this week ? a decline/correction to
1.32 till Tuesday first ? 1.3550 next week ?

this week, next and possibly the week after is a time target period; there's several
scenarios that could appear so this is a first advisement prior to knowing what the
next high - if one is to come will be

the $ has been in a narrow range downtrend, a work in progress how low the $ goes
but will be reflected in the euro's price - as other currencies, besides what may be
occurring with the PIIGS' economics, which at present seems stabilized
so the $ 'going to hell' chat may soon re-emerge particularly if it breaks 78
 
at present, I'll say the move from 1.18 to 1.33 has seen the completion of a 3 wave
Retracement rally of the Nov 09 1.51 to June 1.18 downtrend
this means it was W 4 - or in the process of completing W 4 and that the 1.18 low
will/should/may be broken
however
the 1.33 high could be A of an AB that may base at or above 1.18 , or
1.33 was w 3 of 5 , doing A of an ABC, a higher high to come — the other scenarios

I expect there to be another wave down with w 5 target around 1.265 - 1.255 which
could be hit Tuesday - the Wednesday session and possibly take straight off Up
but again, there's a lower low of 1.245 - 1.240 which is the 61.8 of the whole rally
and would negate the Tue/Wed as a rally start, but could be a w 3-4 correction of
5 waves down to 1.24

longer time targeting, I'm thinking that August will be a down month - 2 weeks left
then there'll either be a 'complex' w 2 correction during September the up month or
the B moves back up to the 1.33 - or higher level, then October sees the beginning
of either w 1 or the w 3 Down which might break the 1.18 low before W 5 completes
closer to par with the $ or
there's the completion of the B base around 1.18 or higher and start of a rally

main thing near term, watch the 1.265 - 1.255 level


the tit-for-tat $ - HH & HC retracement fibos from 6/23 & 6/22
Friday HH of 83.35 above the HC 50.0 , just below the HH 50.0
HC 61.8 is 83.98 , HH 61.8 is 84.15

what lends credence ??? to a new high to come for the euro is the state of the US
and thereby the value of the $
did the $ on June 6 complete the B of an AB reversal, complete w 1 Down and is
now in the process of doing w 2 ? or is it in the process of completing C - W 2 of
it's new Bull rally ?

during this next year, how low can the FFRate go ? how many ARMs will default ?
will NFP unemployment rise again ? how many states will declare bankruptcy ? etc
and all that and more vs the ECB, euro . . . . . who'll you put your money on ?

chart: 4H
 

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the price ended in fibo limbo land, not closing at or on any of the many fibo levels
on the 4H, but did interact with the Speed fans - black adjusted plus new secs
I think that L last Monday was the end of a 'truncated fifth' and the white fibo's 50
was certainly significant enough for it to be a bounce platform which it turned out
to be, with the price going on to interact with its 38.2 level, new secs and fans

I'm wondering if there's an ABC going on; low to 1.26 ? then rally to 1.29/.28 ?
then decline to 1.245 area ?
or is the correction over and it's straight down from here ?

down Mon ? rally thru Wed ? then decline into next week to a negative again NFP ?

chart: 4H
 

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