EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

Quote from Cambist:

I think the US has much bigger problems which will eventually surface. Greece is but one country in the EU... and while I understand the potential for Germany to get messy, we have to remember EU stands for European Union. There are many countries and while they are intertwind they aren't all dependent on each other. It's quite the opposite for the US where every state can and will be affected by nationwide problems. We're much bigger and vulnerable overall.

The people touting that things are all better in the US are either intentionally bullshitting you or completely oblivious to what's yet to come.
More...

Thank you very much for explaining your logic ... it's always good to hear why someone's taking the opposite side of your trade.

I completely agree with you about the problems in the US. I am concerned about states and municipalities as they are running huge deficits and don't have the luxury of printing presses.
My thesis over the last year or so is that that US screwed but the rest of the world is screwed first. I anticipate a deflationary period to end with very high inflation rates in the US.
As I stated in an earlier post, the USD is the leper with the most fingers right now.
 
Quote from iflyjetzzz:

Thank you very much for explaining your logic ... it's always good to hear why someone's taking the opposite side of your trade.

I completely agree with you about the problems in the US. I am concerned about states and municipalities as they are running huge deficits and don't have the luxury of printing presses.
My thesis over the last year or so is that that US screwed but the rest of the world is screwed first. I anticipate a deflationary period to end with very high inflation rates in the US.
As I stated in an earlier post, the USD is the leper with the most fingers right now.
More...

Thanksf or the reply. And I agree that perhaps the rest of the world is in more immediate or at least is allowing their problems to be known more immediately. But still, the rest of the world includes China, the UK, etc... many countries with issues that aren't a part of the EU and therefore wouldn't affect the Euro. Small land mines can go off all over the place but when the US' bomb blows it will hurt everyone.

PS... it's simply folklore that leprosy causes body parts to fall off. You may want to ammend your catchy phrase :)
 
I just found that there are some tremors at Hekla and Katla. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

That ain't good; it indicates magma movement. This could be far from over ... Iceland's volcanic history is one of long lasting activity prior to returning to dormancy.

I may have to consider shorting the GBP while I'm at it.



Quote from Cambist:

PS... it's simply folklore that leprosy causes body parts to fall off. You may want to ammend your catchy phrase :)
More...

I ripped that off from a European economist. While incorrect, most everyone understands the implications. Maybe I should go with, 'The USD is the frostbite victim with the most fingers?' Not as catchy tho.
 
Quote from iflyjetzzz:

I just found that there are some tremors at Hekla and Katla. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

That ain't good; it indicates magma movement. This could be far from over ... Iceland's volcanic history is one of long lasting activity prior to returning to dormancy.

I may have to consider shorting the GBP while I'm at it.





I ripped that off from a European economist. While incorrect, most everyone understands the implications. Maybe I should go with, 'The USD is the frostbite victim with the most fingers?' Not as catchy tho.
More...

Mind explaining the iceland stuff? Not sure I follow.

And yes, the lepor implication is understood... just messin with ya ;)
 
Depending on how violent Katla erupts (if it erupts), there could be loss of agricultural crops and livestock in Europe along with some loss of life.

I don't think that it could blow tomorrow, but it's possible for it to blow within the next couple of years.
 
Gotcha, that definitely makes sense. Again, I'm not a fundy guy so don't pay much attention to these things. You'd be surprised how technicals magically align with fundamental news. Most of the time the "big boys" are aware of things before they happen and are positioned correctly leaving a technical story. Of course, an abrupt natural disaster would be different.

A perfect example is GBP/JPY late last week. I was heavily short from 144.50 as technicals were screaming for it. It began to give Thursday night and then the Goldman news REALLY gave it legs to the downside. I don't think it was a coincidence.

Anyway, I covered late last night (or early this morning depending on your outlook) at 139.75... can't complain about that



Quote from iflyjetzzz:

Depending on how violent Katla erupts (if it erupts), there could be loss of agricultural crops and livestock in Europe along with some loss of life.

I don't think that it could blow tomorrow, but it's possible for it to blow within the next couple of years.
More...
:)
 
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD has gone sideways for several weeks which, yes, may mean the price has stabiliized and is ready to go higher. But, this can also be seen as a consolidation phase that is simply a pause in the downtrend before another leg down.

From a contrarian point of view, once the bad news is out, everyone who wanted to sell has already sold and therefore, prices could start heading higher once the uncertainty of whether they will get a bailout or not is finally out.

I was thinking today on another twist on this. Let's say if the Eurozone DOES go into recession. I read some people invest in the US dollar as a safe heaven. And naturally, you'd expect the euro to go down so you'd likely be seeing the EUR/USD going down. But, what if people start thinking that lower demand in the Eurozone could lead to lower oil prices hence a lower Canadian dollar? And people would be still investing in the US dollar as a safe heaven. So, would we be seeing a larger move in the USD/CAD than the EUR/USD?

From a contrarian point of view, it seems the USD/CAD might be a better pair to trade because it's gone down a lot and everybody seems to think the CAD is a strong currency.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top