EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

Yes, not long after posting a message saying the USD/CAD could be a good currency pair to go long, it dove the most in a long while.

I'm now tempted to say I want to go long the AUD/USD but of course, once I say I'm doing this, a nuclear bomb will strike down upon the financial markets and make this trade impossible for me. Why am I saying this? After 18 months of testing all kinds of trade set ups using technical analysis, I decided to try to blend in fundamentals in the trades. The result? The market starts to go up on good news, I go long, I lose. The market announces bad news, I go short, I lose. I'm actually making beginner mistakes for someone who actually has experience. Anyway, the odd thing is, had I chosen to simply respect the overal trend using technical analysis and FADING the contra-trend moves, I would have made money. This is a strategy I've been aware of for a while now but when I decided to try to add fundamentals in the mix, it just screwed me up.

(In the last few seconds while I was writing this, the AUD/USD started going down.) :eek:
 
Clambill, if you're looking for a currency-related currency play, I'd think that the NOK (Norwegian Kroner) would be a cleaner play than the CAD.

Update on Greek 13 week bond auction. All things considered, it wasn't bad. 3.65% (vice 1.67% in Jan) and a bid to cover ratio of 4.61 (vice 3.23 in Jan). Looks like more than a few investors are chasing yield.
However, the Greek-German 10 year bond spread continues to climb, reaching 478 basis points today (the widest it's been since Bloomberg started tracking it in 1998).
Portuguese bond prices continue to fall and now Irish bonds have started falling. So the PIIGS contagion is spreading; I don't know if it can be contained if this bleeds over into Spanish or Italian debt.
I think that this is why we saw the EUR drop against the USD today.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iXUJvBknZVGqsBenIusBgBvWj5WQD9F6OC001
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b0eba618-4ca9-11df-9977-00144feab49a.html
http://www.independent.ie/business/...l-talks-on-greek-economy-delayed-2143950.html

The Icelandic volcano fears seem to be disappating. However, here's a good article on what could happen: http://tamunews.tamu.edu/2010/04/20/another-iceland-volcano-to-erupt-katla-could-be-the-worse/
If Katla blows, short oil and short all of Europe. I wouldn't make that play right now, but if she blows, things get really nasty for the entire world economy.
 
Bond spreads continue to blow out, as Greek-German 10 year spreads reached 529 basis points today, a new post-EU record.
Portugal and Ireland continue to have their CDS rates rise and now Spain is starting to have the same rising rates.

It feels very close to a Crossing the Rubicon moment with respect to the debt of the PIIGS. If the spreads don't start narrowing soon, this is going to negatively impact the entire Eurozone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ce-as-bond-spreads-soar-to-fresh-records.html


Quote from snow_flakes:

Great analysis clambill. i found some helpful technical analysis from the net and found that EURUSD is now gaining more momentum, as price has now fallen below the 1.3433 immediate support.
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Gaining momentum? Are you now saying that the technicals indicate that the EUR is going to continue to drop? Are there any EUR bulls out there who could make a case for it rising?
 
Quote from iflyjetzzz:


Gaining momentum? Are you now saying that the technicals indicate that the EUR is going to continue to drop? Are there any EUR bulls out there who could make a case for it rising? [/B]
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Euro bull here... stated my reasons in previous posts if you bother to look back a bit.
 
Quote from Cambist:

Euro bull here... stated my reasons in previous posts if you bother to look back a bit.
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Cambist, I read it and was looking for posts from others. I didn't think about specifically mentioning you in my post - perhaps it should have read, "Any Euro bulls out there who want to state their reasons other than that previously stated by Cambist."
 
Quote from iflyjetzzz:

Cambist, I read it and was looking for posts from others. I didn't think about specifically mentioning you in my post - perhaps it should have read, "Any Euro bulls out there who want to state their reasons other than that previously stated by Cambist."
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Probably should have considering it was a general statement and if you didn't want to hear from me that'd be the only way I'd know it.
 
Quote from Cambist:

Probably should have considering it was a general statement and if you didn't want to hear from me that'd be the only way I'd know it.
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No worries; the written word is often misstated/misinterpreted. I do it all the time. :)
 
I sincerely hope none of you guys are thinking the Euro is "bottoming' out...

The only bottom I know of is the one you sit on...

The amputee (Greece) has already been taken back to the operating room...prognosis...not good:eek:

Next patient is?.....

NiN
 
NiN, I've caught falling knives before. Anyone remember 3DFx? Ticker TDFX; I rode that one into chap 7, adding to my position all the way down. It gave me cap loss writeoffs for several years.

I'd comment on the Greek bonds blowing out along with the Moody's rating cuts today of Greek and Portuguese debt, but you'd have to be in hibernation to miss it. Truly dramatic. We're approaching 12 month lows but I think that this movement is far from done. This reminds me of the final days of Lehman.
 
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