EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

Quote from Now is Now:

Pilot?

The 40 + billion is nothing more than a band aid on an amputation, basically to see when the blood leads as there is no way Greece has a handle on their worse case scenario...

As suggested before, it is only a matter of time before Greece put their hand out to the IMF. This will give Portugal license to open up and say "me too" and admit they are technically insolvent...they are aware that Merkel and co are not going to bail them out with temporary funding.

The fly in the ointment is going to be Italy...and that will be the last straw for "unity" as we know it. The sh*t has not hit the fan by a long stretch.

Have had a strong short bias in Euro since Dec 7 and see absolutely no reason to expect any change for some time to come..as to when..any body's guess...I don't make predictions, however have been very happy with price action on a daily basis.

The basic fundamentals of the socio-economic European scene is very disturbing, in my opinion.

NiN
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Yes, I'm a pilot. Haven't flown for quite a while tho. I left active duty Air Force to fly for United in 2000. Needless to say, that hasn't worked out so well and I got furloughed from United again in April 2009 (second time, first time was 5 years). Good thing I didn't quit my 'part time' Reserve job. I'm now doing staff duties in the black world.

Since we're on the pilot/flying topic, I gotta tell ya, I think that this volcanic ash is going to crush Europe's economy. Jets can't fly in this stuff because it does significant damage to engines. Just wait until it rains; the fallout of flouride and sulfur will damage agricultural crops and do tons of damage ... google 'acid rain.' That's what's in store for Europe.
This may end up being a bigger development than the PIIGS. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/properties.html
 
Clambill, more than air transport, this volcanic ash has the potential to destroy Europe's agricultural/farm industry for several years. Longer term, the nutrients are good for the soil. Short term, I think that they're screwed.

The volcanic ash will also cause global cooling. It'll be interesting to see the global warming crowd blame this volcanic eruption on global warming resulting in global cooling.
 
Quote from iflyjetzzz:

Clambill, more than air transport, this volcanic ash has the potential to destroy Europe's agricultural/farm industry for several years. Longer term, the nutrients are good for the soil. Short term, I think that they're screwed.

The volcanic ash will also cause global cooling. It'll be interesting to see the global warming crowd blame this volcanic eruption on global warming resulting in global cooling.
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Al Gore invented volcanic ash to confuse everyone with his global warming theory:D
 
I'm not sure guys... on a weekly basis I see the Euro attempting to form a base here. I'm actually considering building a hefty sized position for a new leg up.
 
Cambist, I understand that you're looking at the technicals but I'd keep the fundamentals in mind here.

Wait until it appears that the Icelandic eruptions have ended before you get bullish on the EUR. If Katla starts erupting, this will get much worse. Here's a good wiki page on Laki's (not an immediate concern to erupt) eruption in 1783: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

I don't see a 1783 (which lasted 8 months) repeat as a high probability but if the eruptions continue, the negative impact on Europe would be huge.

Watch Greece's 13 week auction that takes place this week. Yields above 4% and/or poor bid to cover would indicate significant problems.

And continuing today, Greek bond spreads are blowing out further: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ll-a-fifth-day-as-athens-meeting-delayed.html
Quote from the above link: "Credit-default swaps tied to Greece’s government bonds rose 17 basis points to a 455, the most on record based on closing prices, according to CMA DataVision."

I understand the desire to look at currencies on a strictly technical basis, but these are not plain vanilla times - there is a great deal of economic risk associated with the Eurozone at the moment.
 
Quote from Cambist:

I'm not sure guys... on a weekly basis I see the Euro attempting to form a base here. I'm actually considering building a hefty sized position for a new leg up.
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mind sharing your logic for that? is it based on technicals or is it related to fundamental news? There seems to be a lot of problems with the euro that could push it down a lot further from here. Greek spreads are expanding rapidly and beyond that other nations problems and German unhappiness seems to also point downward. I could see upward movement due to covering but wondering what your reason are. thanks
 
Hi guys, I appreciate your input. My reasons are almost purely technical. I do keep fundamentals in mind but honestly I believe that the problems in the EU are being overblown. EUR/USD volatility has cooled off quite a bit since the initial Greece stuff started. It's yesterday's news and reporters have "shiny ball syndrome"... the next story that surfaces will gain attention and Greece will be a memory that works its way to being forgotten.

I think the US has much bigger problems which will eventually surface. Greece is but one country in the EU... and while I understand the potential for Germany to get messy, we have to remember EU stands for European Union. There are many countries and while they are intertwind they aren't all dependent on each other. It's quite the opposite for the US where every state can and will be affected by nationwide problems. We're much bigger and vulnerable overall.

The people touting that things are all better in the US are either intentionally bullshitting you or completely oblivious to what's yet to come.

So in short I don't think the recent fundamentals for the EU will have much more affect on the currency and I feel it's been overdone. I'll scale into any position slowly, however, until I see some real confirmation.

Thanks!
 
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