Eur/USD

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Closed at 1.2530 - minus 50 pips. Will put a short in at around the 1.2580-90 level.

I think on days like today it tells you how good a trader you are. If you can cut your losses quickly on days like today then, you should see it as a massive success.

My success today was taking 100pip loss on cable, gapped saved myself 80pip of further losses. and 50pips on eur/usd. I banked a 41pip profit earlier on Aud/usd. Deleting limit orders to sell Eur/USD and GBP/USD seconds before they were hit.

I lost money overall, but happy at my performance under pressure, on one crazy day.
 
Quote from GlobalFinancier:

Ivanovich...
The market only looked at the first half of the sentence, that there might be a pause in the tightening cycle, though that doesn't mean an end to the tightening cycle itself.
You're right, but you're seriously underestimating how stupid the market can get, and you're missing out on the profits by being a realist and not a doer.
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1. I'm not underestimating the stupidity of the market, trust me. I'm entertained by it.

2. I'm not missing out on profits. My AUD/USD longs and USD/CHF shorts have been just fine. I didn't post them here because this is not the thread for those pairs. But I won't take a long Euro position because when this thing turns, it's going to seriously catch a ton of people on the wrong side of the coin, and it's going to hurt. Incidently, being long gold at 605 and long silver at 11.90 has me feeling rather well.
 
Because the higher the Euro rises, the harder it is for the EZ - exponentially. A 1.25 rate they can handle for a bit, but even that is going to make the ECB uncomfortable. A 1.30 rate and you'll see the ECB go on perma-hold again, as numbers begin to churn out at poor rates again.

Despite all the yapping about structural imbalances, the EZ is one of the most screwed up "countries" economically.
 
Quote from Valdis:

Well, look what happened between 1.21 and 1.25. No bad US economy news, expected fed reate rise, and so on. And the reason for 2.25? A couple of idiotic speaches about Iran, oil, dollar volatility as a reserve currency and then talks about fed rate. What's going to change in the next couple of weeks and what event is going to reverse the trend?
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I agree with you that the Euro has risen in defiance of what one might have expected from recent economic reports and seemingly on the basis of some intangible fears and a lot of loose talk. First, I would suggest that talk and fear cannot hold up the Euro forever.

As for what is going to change, maybe nothing -- and maybe the Euro will continue to rise for a while. However there are a few scenarios that could play out in the dollar's favor:
-- There's already talk that the media and the markets misconstrued the intent of the G7, which is now purported to have intended for the yuan to appreciate NOT for the dollar to depreciate.
-- Oil prices have been moving lower all week, and could continue to do so, especially if:
-- The question of Iran's uranium enrichment can be settled without raising the spectre of oil supply disruptions from that country.
-- The FOMC raises to 5.0%; the ECB does nothing.
-- (My pick) For various and sundry reasons, different market players believe that the Euro has overshot, and that the market is going to correct, so they switch to a short bias, leading to a greater supply of Euros than dollars in the market.
-- All of the above.
 
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