EUR/CHF wipeout/margin call ... negative balance ... what to do?

[hyperscalper]

EJ's claims about pre-positioning are valid only for Planned News Events. However, in this case, it can't be claimed to be a significant signal, I'm afraid, for a somewhat inconceivable and Unplanned event (except of course by the Perps or Insiders at SNB). Pre-positioning occurs in Micro Scalping with the generally planned events, where Market Maker (aka Liquidity Providers) generally position themselves Opposite of the "first move". Just the initial move, as Planned News Events hit. Again, I don't buy it in this case....

HyperScalper

I pulled up a 30 second Dukascopy JForex Bar chart at the EUR/CHF crash point. And drew two lines, precisely 1 PIP apart, one at 1.2009 and another at 1.2010. Price basically stayed inside that PIP range for at least 24 Hours, immediately prior to the crash at 09:29:00 GMT, so... And let's face facts. I *am* a Micro Scalper !! I know "small price ranges"...
Ridiculous to claim pre-positioning as any meaningful signal.

HyperScalper

 

[hyperscalper]

I pulled up a 30 second Dukascopy JForex Bar chart at the EUR/CHF crash point. And drew two lines, precisely 1 PIP apart, one at 1.2009 and another at 1.2010. Price basically stayed inside that PIP range for at least 24 Hours, immediately prior to the crash at 09:29:00 GMT, so... And let's face facts. I *am* a Micro Scalper !! I know "small price ranges"...
Ridiculous to claim pre-positioning as any meaningful signal.

HyperScalper

Attached a RAW TICK chart from Dukascopy proving NOBODY suspected anything.
HyperScalper

 

[lucysparabola]

he's an absolute clown. disregard any posts by him that state anything further than my first sentence.

 

[Johno1]

I pulled up a 30 second Dukascopy JForex Bar chart at the EUR/CHF crash point. And drew two lines, precisely 1 PIP apart, one at 1.2009 and another at 1.2010. Price basically stayed inside that PIP range for at least 24 Hours, immediately prior to the crash at 09:29:00 GMT, so... And let's face facts. I *am* a Micro Scalper !! I know "small price ranges"...
Ridiculous to claim pre-positioning as any meaningful signal.

HyperScalper

Seriously, the longer Mario Dragi postured about QE the more the smart money would be positioning for it's eventual implementation. So of course over the last few months the big players would be adjusting their risk profiles, I have no doubt the the consequences for the SCB of a collapse in the Euro and how the Franc in particular might respond would be factored in to some degree. No great conspiracy, just smart business people making smart business decisions. That's why they control the big money, could you imagine EJ making these decisions, everything would be a conspiracy so he couldn't even trust himself let alone anyone else leading to paralysis.lol
Cheers John

 

[benwm]

I'm not going to dismiss everything EJ says. That's because I also wondered about the peg failing about a week before the SNB dropped it. I'm not saying I knew, but I did ponder the question.

When the Swiss had the gold vote a few weeks back (a potentially very bullish event for CHF (that would have tied SNB hands) didn't materialize) and you saw that spiky, short lived rally in EUR/CHF, and then price came back quickly towards the floor within a couple of weeks, it looked bearish to me for EUR/CHF.

Fundamentally, I didn't think the peg was sustainable - it lasted for 3 years or so, and you never know, it could have lasted another couple of years. But you also had that massive mirror image move in the other direction in 2011 when they set up the peg. That told me that this was a pair to be avoided, because the day-to-day volatility was misleading. I have to admit I was caught out a little in 2011, but I was never going to make the same mistake again.

The move scares the sh*t out of me a little, because if you look at SMI (Swiss stock futures) there was a big plunge down after the peg dropped and I'm not sure how you could avoid getting caught with a long futures position - the trend looks up to me. When you see a move like this it does make you take stock and re-evaluate how much risk you're putting on the table.

Here is the hourly SMI futures chart from mid December to January 15:-

If anyone can suggest any technical indicators that would have kept you out of a long futures position at the time of the January 15 plunge in SMI futures, I'm all ears..

 

[SunTrader]

Those who engage in prepositioning are usually very well prepared. So here's one I prepared well in advance just for you. As you can see some of us play a different ball game to you.

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/eur-chf-floor.287827/

A screenshot of your actual open and closed trades would suffice. Naturally without any pertinent account info showing.

Otherwise any of us can make calls. Being right and being profitable are not always the same.

 

[ExperiencedJoe]

Otherwise any of us can make calls.

Not really. Very few dares to make calls. Even fewer succeed. You are welcome to try, and you will be one of the firsts to dare in my experience. As it's such a rare occurrence, I'd like to see. Even if you fail in it, you would have done better than 99% of the people on forums.

 

[ExperiencedJoe]

If anyone can suggest any technical indicators that would have kept you out of a long futures position at the time of the January 15 plunge in SMI futures, I'm all ears..

Being able to see prepositioning is the only solution there is. These plunges as well as the associated withholding of liquidity are designed to kill all. Risk management has no use. You can scale back exposure to 1/1000th or lower of account. But this would make trading not very practical.

 

[Turveyd]

I

Not really. Very few dares to make calls. Even fewer succeed. You are welcome to try, and you will be one of the firsts to dare in my experience. As it's such a rare occurrence, I'd like to see. Even if you fail in it, you would have done better than 99% of the people on forums.

Took you off ignore, briefly, still you still talking shit and being a troll for fun.

No most make calls, you just choose to ignore them as there all pointless if there not yours.

Everyone put this FOOL on ignore, trust me, ET is a much much much better place without him.

Back on Ignore for you, EJ, in a weeks time when I check again I really hope your gone!!

prepositioning, due to the peg it's impossible to say, as all short orders would of been swallowed by the peg, they could of been shorting for ages, but no way to know for sure, so no point claiming either side is right!

 

[Turveyd]

A screenshot of your actual open and closed trades would suffice. Naturally without any pertinent account info showing.

Otherwise any of us can make calls. Being right and being profitable are not always the same.

Been there asked for that, you've got ZERO chance, this guy is full off S...........

He'll make trade calls, if they work he'll big them up, if they fail he'll ignore them and when called upon he'll claim he flipped side yeah right!!

Don't feed the trolls and don't wind up mental people!