ET Posters As Contrarian Indicators

Quote from austinp:

<i>"Well, you always hear stories from successful floor traders about how they faded certain traders (see Swagger's trilogy)."</i>

I'd presume those stories are nothing more than pure crap. What's the strategy there? Fade one guy until he goes bust, sit idle until the next losing trader establishes a pattern, fade him until he goes bust, repeat the process?

Floor traders do have the ability to watch trades taken in real-time, whereas online traders obviously do not. On a similar note, I do know an off-floor trader who bragged about fading other guys in his trading room. Big surprise... he washed out of this industry real soon.

<i>"I did not ask if anyone has made a longterm, successful career out of it. But if 95% of traders lose money, then you fading the trades of others seems like a high probablity way to earn money."</i>

What you failed to mention is that all of them are not on the same side of every trade. 95% wash out while roughly half are long and half are short at the exact-same time. How can that be? Mismanagement of entries, stops and exits kill them, not errant market direction.

How do you propose to "fade" that?
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I think my OP got misconstrued. I simply meant to ask has anyone used an ET poster (or the ET posts in general) as a contrarian indicator. If the majority of the ET board is bullish on US equites, has anyone used that as a sign to go short? Also, if someone has a propensity to make losing trades, has anyone faded that person's reccomendation.
 
<i>"I think my OP got misconstrued. I simply meant to ask has anyone used an ET poster (or the ET posts in general) as a contrarian indicator. If the majority of the ET board is bullish on US equites, has anyone used that as a sign to go short? Also, if someone has a propensity to make losing trades, has anyone faded that person's reccomendation."</i>

Fair enough. In that case, where would the entry point be? Where would the profit exit - stop protection be? Do we monitor the fade trades based on our own management scale, or exit when the person = group we fade changes their mind?

The whole idea of being contrarian is natural, logical human assumption. Fading an extreme does have merit... using any one of numerous broad market measures such as VIX, COT report, RYDEX fund flows, put-call ratios and a host of others.

Fading one person who may/may not be on a temporary string of losses is ludicrous. Fading a vocal minority in any website is far too small a sample size to assume it is the marketplace majority rule.
 
Quote from austinp:

<i>"I think my OP got misconstrued. I simply meant to ask has anyone used an ET poster (or the ET posts in general) as a contrarian indicator. If the majority of the ET board is bullish on US equites, has anyone used that as a sign to go short? Also, if someone has a propensity to make losing trades, has anyone faded that person's reccomendation."</i>

Fair enough. In that case, where would the entry point be? Where would the profit exit - stop protection be? Do we monitor the fade trades based on our own management scale, or exit when the person = group we fade changes their mind?

The whole idea of being contrarian is natural, logical human assumption. Fading an extreme does have merit... using any one of numerous broad market measures such as VIX, COT report, RYDEX fund flows, put-call ratios and a host of others.

Fading one person who may/may not be on a temporary string of losses is ludicrous. Fading a vocal minority in any website is far too small a sample size to assume it is the marketplace majority rule.
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So your answer is no. Thank you. It was a question, not a suggestion.
 
i always crack a warm smile when i see certain ppl here asserting themselves in the opposite direction of a position i've got

some of these guys are just serial failures with absurd denial issues, sorta like an obnoxiousness to correctness ratio
 
<b>BDGBDG</b>, I apologize profusely if my posts seemed the least bit hostile to you. That was an assumption of mine which interpreted your question as being meant to incite.

After all, can you imagine a response post being, "I fade John Smith all the time... works great for me!"

If that were offered in all sincerity, how do you think it'd be received?

So, apologize for a seemingly curt tone. Without any emotion involved, the pure answer is purposely fading anyone other than a quantified majority group is pure folly.

Hope this helps :>)
Austin
 
Quote from austinp:

<b>BDGBDG</b>, I apologize profusely if my posts seemed the least bit hostile to you. That was an assumption of mine which interpreted your question as being meant to incite.

After all, can you imagine a response post being, "I fade John Smith all the time... works great for me!"

If that were offered in all sincerity, how do you think it'd be received?

So, apologize for a seemingly curt tone. Without any emotion involved, the pure answer is purposely fading anyone other than a quantified majority group is pure folly.

Hope this helps :>)
Austin
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No offense taken. My question was in response to a thread I was reading, and the idea of using the posters as a contrarian indicator arose. Everyone was bearish on a certain stock. I thought about buying some premarket, which I did not do. The stock is down significantly.
 
I would be glad to post my trades as a fade. I would expect to be compensated though if you make money. I think many people both fade and trade along with, don't make me say it, Cramer :mad:.The master of half truths. Does he still have a desk at Goldman or a little red phone like in Batman? I think if you can find the worst trader and start a newsletter you can definitely make money. ET has some candidates; you know who you are. Will he or she always be wrong though. I would need someone to be wrong at least 70% of the time to be interested. Buy the way short GOOG, cover at $85.00. :p
 
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