ET Posters As Contrarian Indicators
- Thread starter BDGBDG
- Start date
Sure , I'm using yours , made a fortune
If you have been fading me this month, you have probably done alright 
Well, you always hear stories from successful floor traders about how they faded certain traders (see Swagger's trilogy).
I did not ask if anyone has made a longterm, successful career out of it. But if 95% of traders lose money, then you fading the trades of others seems like a high probablity way to earn money.
We've gone over this before. It's not that simple. Most lose, of course, but a lot of that is inefficiencies like commish, and poor capitalization - stuff you can't fade.
And if you faded me, well, to quote
Drago: "You vill lose!"
And if you faded me, well, to quote
Drago: "You vill lose!"
<i>"Well, you always hear stories from successful floor traders about how they faded certain traders (see Swagger's trilogy)."</i>
I'd presume those stories are nothing more than pure crap. What's the strategy there? Fade one guy until he goes bust, sit idle until the next losing trader establishes a pattern, fade him until he goes bust, repeat the process?
Floor traders do have the ability to watch trades taken in real-time, whereas online traders obviously do not. On a similar note, I do know an off-floor trader who bragged about fading other guys in his trading room. Big surprise... he washed out of this industry real soon.
<i>"I did not ask if anyone has made a longterm, successful career out of it. But if 95% of traders lose money, then you fading the trades of others seems like a high probablity way to earn money."</i>
What you failed to mention is that all of them are not on the same side of every trade. 95% wash out while roughly half are long and half are short at the exact-same time. How can that be? Mismanagement of entries, stops and exits kill them, not errant market direction.
How do you propose to "fade" that?
I'd presume those stories are nothing more than pure crap. What's the strategy there? Fade one guy until he goes bust, sit idle until the next losing trader establishes a pattern, fade him until he goes bust, repeat the process?
Floor traders do have the ability to watch trades taken in real-time, whereas online traders obviously do not. On a similar note, I do know an off-floor trader who bragged about fading other guys in his trading room. Big surprise... he washed out of this industry real soon.
<i>"I did not ask if anyone has made a longterm, successful career out of it. But if 95% of traders lose money, then you fading the trades of others seems like a high probablity way to earn money."</i>
What you failed to mention is that all of them are not on the same side of every trade. 95% wash out while roughly half are long and half are short at the exact-same time. How can that be? Mismanagement of entries, stops and exits kill them, not errant market direction.
How do you propose to "fade" that?