out all..flat
ES Trend Following
- Thread starter Bombardier
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There have been no flat support or resistance areas I used to trade until now. And this shortly I started posting in this thread. Either people jumped on the bandwagon and this edge disappeared, or I'm illusioning. If you see any, let me know. Already working on new methods to follow trends.
Bought @ 1217.25, Stop @ 1202.00
I am long with one contract at 1217.25 upon break of the several day downtrend line, clearly visible in the 4H chart. Very encouraging price action.
I am long with one contract at 1217.25 upon break of the several day downtrend line, clearly visible in the 4H chart. Very encouraging price action.
Stop is now set to 1222.00, an area which I perceive as a lower high created today in the new uptrend since yesterday. Today's weakness and subsequent bounce is precisely what a trend follower welcomes, as it is an opportunity to adjust the risk in his favor.
Victor Sperandeo had some interesting words about how he defined a trend line and breakout in New Market Wizards. It was basically the same as Dow theory without the cross-market confirmation, but with a trend line added. First lower high marks the breakout, subsequent reaction up to the underside of the line is your entry point.
It appears to still work, and is much harder to program and algo to fade.
Quote from Wide Tailz:
Victor Sperandeo had some interesting words about how he defined a trend line and breakout in New Market Wizards. It was basically the same as Dow theory without the cross-market confirmation, but with a trend line added. First lower high marks the breakout, subsequent reaction up to the underside of the line is your entry point.
It appears to still work, and is much harder to program and algo to fade.
Can you post a chart? Not exactly sure how to picture what you said. Thanks
You, my friend, have joined the dumb money and are fading the minority-> this is not a position I want to be in. Yes the price action appears a certain way, but I don't think it will be that way for very long. There is well documented proof of manipulation in markets, and the majority are almost always wrong.
The poor trader might be right sometimes, but most of the time they are not.
The poor trader might be right sometimes, but most of the time they are not.
Quote from jrlvnv:
Can you post a chart? Not exactly sure how to picture what you said. Thanks
Even classic momentum analysis, taken from a tech analysis textbook, agrees with the signals herein:
Wide Tailz, thanks a lot for your comments and the chart posted. You are quite right, the large time frames (daily/weekly) offer amazing precision, even though it may not appear so. I've also noticed how very simple patterns such as a failed breakdown (July 2009), failed head & shoulder (January - July 2010), another failed breakdown (October 2011) were followed by huge movements in the opposite direction.
The small picture still gives me headache from time to time because the pullbacks look so vicious that you totally forget about the large time frames. Anyways, I guess I'm reading your analysis correctly, that a break above the October highs would confirm an uptrend according to the Dow Theory? 2011 was a big mess, but it has helped me with improving my charting setup to detect trends even better visually. Hopefully I continue to perform well in 2012! Wish you all a Merry Christmas.
The small picture still gives me headache from time to time because the pullbacks look so vicious that you totally forget about the large time frames. Anyways, I guess I'm reading your analysis correctly, that a break above the October highs would confirm an uptrend according to the Dow Theory? 2011 was a big mess, but it has helped me with improving my charting setup to detect trends even better visually. Hopefully I continue to perform well in 2012! Wish you all a Merry Christmas.
Yes, perhaps. One of the problems with Dow theory is its inability to know if you are seeing a real trend change or an in-trend correction. Your question exposes this problem.
I don't know the answer.
I eventually gave up on TA and just coded a very primitive trend following algo. It requires huge volatility to take a position. It went short the day after you got stopped out. It caught part of the down move and the subsequent up move.
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