ES Trend Following

gmst · Jan 5, 2012

Quote from Bombardier:

You point out a very valid issue, gmst. Position scaling is something I will have to deal with in the near future once my accumulated profits justify an upgrade. When I traded CFDs and ETFs back then (which allow very flexible scaling in small amounts), I haven't had much success with adding to a position. The market usually turned against me the moment I increased, so I was always better off if I hadn't done anything. I'm sure there are traders who do it successfully, and I would like to hear their thoughts. As far as I am concerned, I find scaling out a more relevant tactic to explore.

Let me repeat: you should read "Way of the Turtles" by Curtis Faith, at the earliest. If you haven't read that already. You may find answers to a lot of questions there and definitely interesting approaches.

masterm1ne · Jan 6, 2012

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I can't figure out how to code this in Tradestation but if I had a couple weeks off work I'd daytrade it and see how doable it is.

I won't say this is unable to be programmed, but I doubt even if it were I don't think (over long term) you'd have great success. Bombardier ran into the main issue himself: being too rigid... the strategy relies on a subjectivity that's impossible to predict.

You would need an adapting algo to make this work... without this (and I love how most people are stunned when their strats stop working) I don't think it's very logical to assume you can make money consistently over time using a rigid algo.

The core of programming is simple control structures. It'd be very difficult to reach the level of abstraction you'd need to win with this (or any other) model over significant time.

Avoid the issue of scaling by buying/selling all contracts at one time.

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I also believe all systems are curve fits and eventually stop working.

Yes, and you defined curve fitting eloquently.

Bombardier · Jan 10, 2012

Very pleased with the current stability in markets. I have adjusted my stop to 1260 and continue to sit on my position since December 20.

gmst · Jan 10, 2012

Quote from Bombardier:

Very pleased with the current stability in markets. I have adjusted my stop to 1260 and continue to sit on my position since December 20.

There are at least couple of things that you have in plenty that most others lack is patience and discipline. These 2 attributes are among the most important ones to become a successful trader. Great.

masterm1ne · Jan 10, 2012

I continue to be astounded at the way the stock market can behave.... very low total PCRs and we are still advancing.... If I were long, I'd tread this shit carefully...

Bombardier · Jan 13, 2012

Price is breaking a visible support basis at 1280 after ranging 25 points up and down (see 1H or 4H chart). I reversed just now at 1280.50, and taking the proceeds from my previous long position of $3,162.50. The stop is 1296.00

Total profit since beginning: $15,100

gibdi0n · Jan 15, 2012

damn this journal is good. I never even considered to broaden my views. I focused only on day trading and not hawing positions over night. Man U really prove how much I was wrong. Tell me when U enter position do U have a fixed stop, or U determine it by support / resistance lines or is it just a hunch?

Bombardier · Jan 16, 2012

Quote from gibdi0n:

damn this journal is good. I never even considered to broaden my views. I focused only on day trading and not hawing positions over night. Man U really prove how much I was wrong. Tell me when U enter position do U have a fixed stop, or U determine it by support / resistance lines or is it just a hunch?

I figured out the same many years ago. The rewards from day trading do not justify the challenges and emotional drainage. Not that traders cannot succeed in it, but chances are very slim in the long run. Many experienced traders therefore shift toward more longer term horizons and observe significant improvements in performance. My stops are always fixed and known upfront. If you go through the screenshots posted in my previous posts here, you can see where I put and gradually adjust them to. I generally place a stop at the nearest significant peak or trough. On average, I have 15pt stops per trade.

vinc · Jan 16, 2012

Talking about screen shots.. Could you show us your last entry? And one more thing if you don't mind - do you enter on breakout or you wait till 1h candle closes above /below the line? Thanks and congrats on great trading

Laissez Faire · Jan 16, 2012

Quote from Bombardier:

I figured out the same many years ago. The rewards from day trading do not justify the challenges and emotional drainage. Not that traders cannot succeed in it, but chances are very slim in the long run. Many experienced traders therefore shift toward more longer term horizons and observe significant improvements in performance. My stops are always fixed and known upfront. If you go through the screenshots posted in my previous posts here, you can see where I put and gradually adjust them to. I generally place a stop at the nearest significant peak or trough. On average, I have 15pt stops per trade.

I agree with the previous poster. Great journal and great performance.

Wishing you continued success.