es profit on 1/4 point can it be done?

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Quote from austinp:

1. <b>saxon22</b>, most if not all of us here meant you no disrespect. I applaud you for spending the time in research to at least come this far with a trading plan.

2. You began this thread by asking (in open fashion) where the holes might be in your research. Some of us with real trading experience have answered in hope of saving you lost time and money. There are a number of reasons why your data looks viable in research, but cannot possibly succeed in real time <i>over the course of time</i>.

3. In other words, it is 100% impossible for any retail trader to pay normal trade costs and still mathematically succeed over any six month or one year period of time. It may be possible to enjoy some win streaks for awhile, but anything with such a negative profit to loss ratio cannot be done by retail traders.

4. I would also venture to say that the same concept has been thought of by other traders before, probably thousands of times. If successful trader by such a simple approach were possible, those of us who came before you would be exploiting it right now.

5. Sure would be fine with me... I can afford 100-lot ES positions at any time. If scalping high-odds profit were this easy, I'd happily be doing it already.

6. <b>saxon22</b>, you are absolutely free to do as you wish. My one strong suggestion is trying this out on a one-lot position in real time for awhile. If it works as you surmise it could, the rest of us would love to hear alllllllllllllll about it! :>)

Best Trading Wishes
Austin
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Answers::::

1. I was not offended or felt disrespected by any of the comments posted on this thread. As a matter of fact I want people to be honest and brutally frank when answering my question. After all, this could and probably will allow me not to loose a bundle of $$$$. Furthermore, I appreciate all the comments, no matter the what the color or shape they have. I understand that all of them in the long run will help me become a better trader.


2. I have read the arguments against it, and there are some points that are valid I admit that.

3. Mathematically it looks like an impossible task in the long run , but than again (and please correct mer if I am wrong) most of the professional economists would argue that one can't beat the market, yet it has been done by some.

4. Sometimes the simple solution IS
the solution.

5. have you tried this particular approach????

6. I will try to chart my own path. Naturally, that does not mean I will not listen to those who are wiser and have more experience in this field than I do. However, I have not achieved my position in life by being a follower. There are thousands of followers trying to look busy wasting their lives working in MD and Wall Marts of our society. I am not one of them.

Thank you for the wishes!

Saxon
 
Quote from saxon22:

After examining the ES I have noticed that there is a lot of movement within 1/4 of a point. What I mean is that ES would jump with 1/2 point several times before moving on with the trend. SO, lets say ES is at 1333.50 uptick, I buy at 1333.50 100 lot, the ES wiggles going from 1333.50 to 1333.25 back to 133.50 and since I bought with the trend (uptick) it soon goes to 1334. Once it hits my target I get a fill and pocket 1250 less fees and taxes. I continue do that until ES hits resistance, then if it breaks through I wait for it to gather momentum and continue with the plan. If it does not penetrates and strat a downticks I short it until it hits support on its way back. Seems logical and doable from my angle. I can do it almost all day long as opposed to waiting for a set up to hit the market for a couple of points 3 maybe 4 times a day. Like I said before, I have not tried it yet with real $$$ so it is all one big ????? This is why in my original question I asked if it was doable.
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If your actually considering opening an account and putting some money up, take into consideration the very simple yet often overlooked fact that nothing is as easy as it seems. If it was really so simple to half tick the ES all day, we'd all be doing it.

Further, what you'll come to see is you don't really ever cash out at a half tick unless you have you. Most scalpers if they lift an offer, say 1330.0's, then see the market go 1330.25 bid pretty quickly are then just leaning on the 30.25's, but definitley not hitting the bid before you see if you have a shot to sell the 30.50's or better.

I'd say spend alot of time on a simulator before you open an account, get a good indicator and some setups to base your trades. Not necessarily than anything more technical than watching other indices if your good. I.E. if your trading the ER2 and you know the ES is leading, markets flat but its around 10.30 and suddenly ES goes bid, followed by NQ and YM....get onboard ER2 cause you know its next. Seeing stuff like that, other markets getting bought/sold is alot of scalpers indicator.

Watch out for that fake size in the ES, it'll drive ya nuts.
 
Quote from saxon22:

I am very far away from those contracts, but appreciate the info. Thank you:)
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You are talking about 100 lot size and couple of trades a day. With that trading style, you can easily do 1000 contracts a day. You are dream come true for retail broker. So, you should lease/buy the IOM seat so you can trade the ES and save on commission.
 
Quote from John47:

trading the ES this way without learning from someone that does it profitably is so difficult, I would go so far as to say impossible for just about anybody. If you had a great mentor you'd have a shot. But what I'm guessing you'd find if you found such a person is that there are other markets where scalping like that is a better trade.
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Well, at least you are not knocking it entirely out of the ballpark. As for having a mentor.... I think it would be easier for MJ to get laid in a senior citizen center (and enjoy it) than for me to get a mentor. Therefore .... could you drop me a clue as to what other markets I should be looking at?????:(
 
Quote from mwahal:

Based on your experience with the real market and your trading size to be 100-200 contracts, I think its safe to assume that the initial margin which you will be putting for the trading is not earned from any prior trading :-)

I'll be most welcome to lighten your load in your account by taking the other side. Why just me, I think most of the *elite* traders who have been giving you real advice to rethink your strategy, will also be happy to take your money.

I'm being very very honest here and you can flame me as much as you want :-)
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I am not here to flame anybody. I enjoy honesty in general and prefer to make love not war.
My trading size of 100 to 200 is my ultimate goal which hopefully will be achieved in couple of years. I am not one of those fools who jump into a lake without doing research first.
You are correct in stating that my stash of greenbacks had not been accumulated by playing the market. I had to work hard for it and consequently would not want to part with that easily.
As for taking my money, try it if you can.
 
Quote from John47:

1. If your actually considering opening an account and putting some money up, take into consideration the very simple yet often overlooked fact that nothing is as easy as it seems. If it was really so simple to half tick the ES all day, we'd all be doing it.

2. Further, what you'll come to see is you don't really ever cash out at a half tick unless you have you. Most scalpers if they lift an offer, say 1330.0's, then see the market go 1330.25 bid pretty quickly are then just leaning on the 30.25's, but definitely not hitting the bid before you see if you have a shot to sell the 30.50's or better.

3. I'd say spend alot of time on a simulator before you open an account, get a good indicator and some setups to base your trades. Not necessarily than anything more technical than watching other indices if your good. I.E. if your trading the ER2 and you know the ES is leading, markets flat but its around 10.30 and suddenly ES goes bid, followed by NQ and YM....get onboard ER2 cause you know its next. Seeing stuff like that, other markets getting bought/sold is alot of scalpers indicator.

Watch out for that fake size in the ES, it'll drive ya nuts.
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Answers:


1. Nothing is as easy as it looks, but sometimes simplicity is the key. Other times you have to follow Alexander the Great and his approach to problem solving.

2. Greed is not my disease and discipline is what will allow me to hit the sell button at the 1/4 point.

3. Thanx for this info. Of course aside from this system of mine I have looked at other traders techniques. As a matter of fact I follow couple of journals on this site and have tried trader28 approach with success on my sim.

Thank for all the info.
 
Quote from mwahal:

You are talking about 100 lot size and couple of trades a day. With that trading style, you can easily do 1000 contracts a day. You are dream come true for retail broker. So, you should lease/buy the IOM seat so you can trade the ES and save on commission.
More...


How much would such an endeavor cost me?????
 
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