es profit on 1/4 point can it be done?

[saxon22]

Quote from trader28:

I've seen a guy named Jame that scalped like that but he didn't limit himself to a 1/4, sometimes 1/2 sometimes 3/4... 20 to 50 contracts depending on how confident of the move he was, I couldn't tell you how he did it, he was uncanny at knowing when the slightest reversal was about to occur and he guarded his method like it was his sisters virginity. I saw him 30K up before lunch one day, last I heard he was buying a seat on the exchange. He had a unique mindset, his indicators were his weapons and the rest of the market were an invading army trying to steal his kingdom, he was that gung ho.
So yes it can be done, but can it be done by you and me? probably not

So I guess I am on the right track. The dilemma is can I do this? (probably not) However, I am glad to see that those who are in the game professionally are able to pull off something similar to my method. Being up 30k before the mid day meal is quiet an achievement. I also like his mindset.
Btw. I have read the entire thread where you present your system. I like it, it looks simple yet from what I hear it generates $$$$ day in and out. Thank you for your 2c and for that system. I think once I get the balls to trade live I will surely try to implement it.


What part of Australia do you call home. (Is it Brisbane?) I visited both NZ and OZ 3 years ago ( almost had a stroke climbing urulu)

 

[trader28]

No I'm from Melbourne

And make sure you read my other post and understand the math backwards, if it doesn't frighten the pants off you and have you targetting more profit then go back and read it again, the math is damning. Jame had around 95% strike rate... and he could sustain that day in day out without fail, we called him the machine because he was inhuman... i dont think there is 1 in a million that can do what he did

 

[saxon22]

Quote from GTS:

saxon22, the last post by illiquid is spot on about how what it is like to chase ticks.

1. Have you tried signing up for a simulator account and doing what you are suggesting? If not (why not?) and you are basing this only based on looking at historical charts then I think you are in for a bit of a surprise once you try it live.

Seriously, try it, either with one contract in a real account or in a demo account - no need to guess about what it is like to do what you propose. The only way you can really understand is to do it, not ask others what it is like.

1. So far I have a great gig between 9-5 and under no circumstances am I allowed to use internet or PC for other than work related stuff. I have read about 6 books on trading so far and have another 6 to go through before I deplete my stash and visit amazon again for more. I believe that first I need to get the foundations right, read and understand about trading as much as I can, try to come up with some trading hypothesis, have them discussed with other traders on forums like this one and then further test them using sims and then and only then, take a plunge into real trading.
Mu univ. tuition was miniscule and I am planing on not paying too much to get the handle on trading. That is precisely way I am taking it slow.
However, the devil part of me is tempted to just deposit a couple of grand with IB and give it a shoot (in sim mode of course). Maybe during the Christmas break when I am off work, I will try it.

 

[Bitstream]

u know what's the problem, u now have a vision based on insight actions that u think u would have taken based on the price and charts. prob is that u have no clue about which trades u would have taken and when u would have stayed on the sidelines, it looks easy when u are doin' nuttin' and are not pressurized into pushin' your red/blue buttons, but when your live it's another story altogether.

Quote from saxon22:

So I guess I am on the right track. The dilemma is can I do this? (probably not) However, I am glad to see that those who are in the game professionally are able to pull off something similar to my method. Being up 30k before the mid day meal is quiet an achievement. I also like his mindset.
Btw. I have read the entire thread where you present your system. I like it, it looks simple yet from what I hear it generates $$$$ day in and out. Thank you for your 2c and for that system. I think once I get the balls to trade live I will surely try to implement it.


What part of Australia do you call home. (Is it Brisbane?) I visited both NZ and OZ 3 years ago ( almost had a stroke climbing urulu)

 

[trader28]

Quote from saxon22:

So I guess I am on the right track. The dilemma is can I do this?

To summarize, you have a 75% chance of losing 81.25% and only a 25% chance of winning 18.75% shooting for 1 tick with a 1 tick stop... the only way to get those numbers closer to 50/50 is to target more profit... a lot more profit

 

[saxon22]

Quote from trader28:

No I'm from Melbourne

And make sure you read my other post and understand the math backwards, if it doesn't frighten the pants off you and have you targetting more profit then go back and read it again, the math is damning. Jame had around 95% strike rate... and he could sustain that day in day out without fail, we called him the machine because he was inhuman... i dont think there is 1 in a million that can do what he did

I have visited Melbourne as well. Went to see Kangaroo Island from there. Lovely place. The guy who was working in the hostel used to offer all the visitors vanilla ice cream with cheesecake. The stuff was delicious and my wife and I still reminiscing about that trip. I found Adelaide to be the most pleasant part of Australia and one day would love to go back and to do the camper thing from Sydney to Perth.

I reread your post. I wish I could get to know Jame because it is going to be hard doing it on my own .

 

[trader28]

Quote from saxon22:

I have visited Melbourne as well. Went to see Kangaroo Island from there. Lovely place. The guy who was working in the hostel used to offer all the visitor vanilla ice cream with cheesecake. The stuff was delicious and my wife and I still reminiscing about that trip. I found Adelaide to be the most pleasant part of Australia and one day would love to go back and to do the camper thing from Sydney to Perth.

I reread your post. I wish I could get to know Jame because it is going to be hard doing it on my own .

Damn... now I'm hungry and it's the middle of the night

Nobody knows Jame, I'm still not convinced he isn't a supercomputer

 

[saxon22]

Quote from Bitstream:

u know what's the problem, u now have a vision based on insight actions that u think u would have taken based on the price and charts. prob is that u have no clue about which trades u would have taken and when u would have stayed on the sidelines, it looks easy when u are doin' nuttin' and are not pressurized into pushin' your red/blue buttons, but when your live it's another story altogether.

I am ware that real live trading is a lot more involving than plying with a sim. Only time will tell if I could pull trading live. I am not on that step yet.

 

[saxon22]

Quote from trader28:

Damn... now I'm hungry and it's the middle of the night

Nobody knows Jame, I'm still not convinced he isn't a supercomputer

May I suggest a bag of potato chips. I never figure it out why but they are super expensive down under ($4 a bag).


Btw. My wife asks how All Blacks are doing (her favorite kiwi team)?

 

[John47]

Quote from saxon22:

Well, at least you are not knocking it entirely out of the ballpark. As for having a mentor.... I think it would be easier for MJ to get laid in a senior citizen center (and enjoy it) than for me to get a mentor. Therefore .... could you drop me a clue as to what other markets I should be looking at?????

I don't know, i barely even watch equities, but stuff like that changes alot. A year and a half ago and some times in between crude was a great indicator for ES, now something else is probably leading the way.

Something else you'll come to realize if you follow this far enough....prices matter less when your scalping in this way, you're looking at orders and trying to figure out whats real. If 1330.0 bid on 1000 comes in and for whatever reason you know its legit, you might be buying 30.25's just because you know its gonna take alot of selling to get through that order and before it does you'll probably be able to get off 30.50's. But you're damn sure not gonna miss the evens. Learning to lean on specific orders and stuff like that is what a mentor is vital for.

As well, to be successful your gonna have to forget the idea of a .25 stop. Forget stops they're not for scalping. You have to be good enough so that your losers are scratches, and taking a 1/4 tick loss is what happens when a trade goes absolutley dogshit. To do that you're gonna have to figure out how to price orders well...when is somebody offering something that you know is about to go bid hard? When is somebody on the bid and they need to buy bad enough that they're gonna have to start lifting the offer? Where have the resting orders been all day? Say we've been in a range all day suddenly ES gets sold a handle and everybody gets nervous, but your watching your indicators and know this selling is probably one guy/house getting out of something, cause nothing else moved...you gotta be the guy that takes the offer on the ES right as the rest of the locals are geeked out because you know w/ where the rest of the markets are, there's no way ES should be offered....and then if you lift the offer on 10 lots, it goes bid 20 times and thats it, you gotta be ready to hit the bid immediately for your scratch. Or if it goes bid a couple hundred times your leaning there waiting to sell higher.

There's ALOT involved in this style, thats why I say its incredibly difficult to learn on your own. Thats not even including the other overhead...fast enough execution, being able to call the floor/broker to get out of shit gone wrong fast....a great newsfeed....remember a few months ago it was a quiet afternoon and suddenly markets went crazy because maria bariromo said she had an exclusive with bernanke? How would you like to have 100 lots on and suddenly its in your face a few points and you don't even know why? Stuff like that is a scalpers nightmare. Just a week or two ago something came out about a fire in Philly and markets shook a bit cause we didn't know if it was terror related...I don't know how much es moved but even something that stupid, if it drops 1/2 and your long and don't know whats going on, your week is done.