ES/NQ Trading - looking for solutions

Bottom Ticked....omigosh can that rattle you. Happens to me all too frequently as well as does it's brother Top Ticked. I think the algos are responsible....as they "know" where the maximum move is going to be.

Has it ever occurred to you that you too could choose to place your buy orders where you currently place your sell stops, and your sell orders where you currently place your buy orders? Trade like an algo.
 
Has it ever occurred to you that you too could choose to place your buy orders where you currently place your sell stops, and your sell orders where you currently place your buy orders? Trade like an algo.
Basically this reverses my strategy....interesting.
 
Basically this reverses my strategy....interesting.

This is where back testing is your friend (even if a “visual” strategy as you asserted as a reason not to test).

Take note of where you typically enter, note how often price retraces to your entry, and how often to your stop and then reverses in your favor. Determine when you should be buying at those levels where others are getting stopped out of longs or entering short on sell stops, and vice versa.
 
OK Guys, I constructed this cool spreadsheet that tracks every trade according to the problems identified as follows:
Hesitating Getting In
Ignoring Signals In
Hesitating Getting Out
Ignoring Signals Out
Didn't Flatten bad trade
Stop Loss too tight
Stop Loss too Wide
Lost Concentration
Entered When No Trend
Sold Into Support
Bot Into Resistance
Entered into Choppy Conditions
Revenge Trade
Wrong Bet Size
Exit Winner Too Early
Perfect Trade

At the end of the day, it tallys each problem item and computes what percent of the trades this occurred at.
It allows for multiple problems per trade by entering a percentage instead of 1.0
For instance: 0.7 Bot Into Resistance 0.3 Entered into Choppy Conditions

Those percentages are then maintained by day in a separate sheet.
The dailies are then tallied by month and then year-to-date.
What say ye ?
 
Started about 3 months ago and what a learning experience.
Solving the hardware, software, data feed, broker problems were EASY.
First 2 months were a disaster with a 25-30% win rate.
Obviously my entries sucked. Every time I entered I trade, I was immediately down.....soon to be stopped out. I was always buying into resistance and selling into strength. The other big problem that I finally solved was revenge trading.....where after a loss, I would immediately go in the other direction only to be stopped out....again due to choppy conditions.
Well, I got much better and now I'm at 50-60% win rate. I maintain rigorous stops and never lose a lot.
However, there are still many issues I need to resolve: Any helpful comments greatly appreciated....

1) determining bet size...how many contracts to place in the trade
Right now I'm constantly trading 4 ES and 3 NQ....that's huge (for me)....and very risky.
Should I use a volatility indicator for this ? Which one ? I know for 1 thing, the first hour is brutal and I've got to trade with less size. Later in the day, I can increase size.

2) staying in profitable trades longer or until my indicators say to get out
This is a huge problem with many traders. I constantly get out too early...it's killing me.
However, I hate trailing stops....in the volatile futures markets, they take you out of the trade only to continue in your intended direction....which REALLY SUCKS.

3) Flatting trades when they don't go right.
THIS IS HUGE....I just let them take-out my stop most of the time for a big loss.
I need to focus while in the trade and if the action is poor....JUST GET THE F*CK OUT.
Sometimes this is not possible....today I lost $400 in one NQ trade in 5 Seconds....incredible.
are you talking manual trading or automated trading ?
What is the risk reward ratio?
Do you use support or resistance or just indicators?
How many trades do you take in the RTH?
Do your stops get hit more or do you reach your take profit target price more.
how many signals does your trading rules generate in the RTH?
What is the maximum points and minimum points for your trades?
is it a rules based strategy, if so how many rules do you have before your confirm the trade.
 
are you talking manual trading or automated trading ?
Manual. Automated would generate too many trades and be costly in commish.
What is the risk reward ratio?
Don't know...my stops keep me from losing my shirt.
Do you use support or resistance or just indicators?
[
Just indicators, but after a day like today, I need to consider using pullback logic to enter a trade.
Way too many poor entry with the indicators.
How many trades do you take in the RTH?
30-40 trades; 120-150 contracts
Do your stops get hit more or do you reach your take profit target price more.
the former
What is the maximum points and minimum points for your trades?
Usually 2-4 points.
is it a rules based strategy, if so how many rules do you have before your confirm the trade.
1) trade must be in the direction of the Trend
2) SMI (stochastic momentum index) must be negative or moving to negative for short trades and vise versa
3) PVO (proprietary price-volume indicator) must have crossed the zero line
Works great in swinging markets....not so much in markets like today....and yesterday.
 
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30-40 trades; 120-150 contracts

Overtrading, IMO.

Works great in wildly swinging markets....not so much in markets like today....and yesterday.

You see. That's the thing.

If you want success in day trading, you need consistency. This means your system needs to adapt. Today is a pretty common day for the ES so if your system doesn't work well on such days, you have a job to do.

In fact, the recent volatility is not typical for the US stock indices.

Yesterday you could have bought the Open and sold the Close. One single trade (see above).
 
Overtrading, IMO.
Agreed.
Overtrading, IMO.
If you want success in day trading, you need consistency. This means your system needs to adapt. Today is a pretty common day for the ES so if your system doesn't work well on such days, you have a job to do.
I broke my rules and kept trying to short the afternoon rally. BOY WAS THAT DUMB. See, one of my big problems is my short bias. At the end of the day, I went short, but cut my profits short instead of letting them run. For some reason, I am averse to a trailing stop (yet another problem !). Yet if I had used it in late day, I would have been up on the day instead of down.
I was short at 2870 (late, I know !) and if I had covered at 2866 that would have been $800 on a 4 lot.

Overtrading, IMO.
In fact, the recent volatility is not typical for the US stock indices.
I disagree.....there was no volatility today....at all....until near the close. I just love volatility.
I recently had a closing trade on that made nearly $500 in 11 seconds.....and the market was moving super fast.
It was quite a rush.
Note: those long from 1 pm today didn't do that well unless they closed their positions at 15:51. Otherwise, half their profits were gone "puff" in the late down move.
BTW: Thanks for the feedback.
 
I disagree.....there was no volatility today....at all....until near the close. I just love volatility.

You misread.

What I said is that today (Tuesday) is a more common day for ES historically than what we've seen recently. The volatility that picked up in the late part of 2018 and continued for a while into 2019 is not normal.

If you want a consistently volatile market, you might want to look into something else than ES.

Steve has consistently pointed towards HSI. I don't know that market at all. Some people like crude oil. I don't know much about that either.

I know ES and ES only. :)
 
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