ES/NQ Trading - looking for solutions

syswizard

syswizard

Started about 3 months ago and what a learning experience.
Solving the hardware, software, data feed, broker problems were EASY.
First 2 months were a disaster with a 25-30% win rate.
Obviously my entries sucked. Every time I entered I trade, I was immediately down.....soon to be stopped out. I was always buying into resistance and selling into strength. The other big problem that I finally solved was revenge trading.....where after a loss, I would immediately go in the other direction only to be stopped out....again due to choppy conditions.
Well, I got much better and now I'm at 50-60% win rate. I maintain rigorous stops and never lose a lot.
However, there are still many issues I need to resolve: Any helpful comments greatly appreciated....

1) determining bet size...how many contracts to place in the trade
Right now I'm constantly trading 4 ES and 3 NQ....that's huge (for me)....and very risky.
Should I use a volatility indicator for this ? Which one ? I know for 1 thing, the first hour is brutal and I've got to trade with less size. Later in the day, I can increase size.

2) staying in profitable trades longer or until my indicators say to get out
This is a huge problem with many traders. I constantly get out too early...it's killing me.
However, I hate trailing stops....in the volatile futures markets, they take you out of the trade only to continue in your intended direction....which REALLY SUCKS.

3) Flatting trades when they don't go right.
THIS IS HUGE....I just let them take-out my stop most of the time for a big loss.
I need to focus while in the trade and if the action is poor....JUST GET THE F*CK OUT.
Sometimes this is not possible....today I lost $400 in one NQ trade in 5 Seconds....incredible.
 
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One tenth size micro contracts are available to trade at CME in a couple of months. Can take risks without too much consequences.
 
you are trading far too much.
start with 2 lots till you are confident.

I had deleted all indicators decades ago.
all indicators are useless, worthless, and distracting.

if you see my journal, those who traded on 29 Mar will most likely lose money.
Sometimes market moves gently and nicely (and that's where trading is easy)
and sometimes market moves unwillingly,jerkily .... (and that's where trading is difficult).
avoid trading difficult market at all cost.
Do note that on 28 Mar, market was already a difficult market, and was giving us a warning sign.
 
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maxinger said:
I had deleted all indicators decades ago.
all indicators are useless, worthless, and distracting.
More...
No f*cking way...you would have pry my dead hands away from my 3 powerful indicators.
I've got a trend indicator, a momentum indicator, and a price volume indicator which is my crown jewel.
All of these are custom coded...by me. They're not the typical crap....RSI, MACD....those are all bullshit....and don't work.
You are right though....they are distracting and it requires a LOT of concentration to deal with them and the price action....especially at the speed of ES and NQ.
 
syswizard said:
No f*cking way...you would have pry my dead hands away from my 3 powerful indicators.
I've got a trend indicator, a momentum indicator, and a price volume indicator which is my crown jewel.
All of these are custom coded...by me. They're not the typical crap....RSI, MACD....those are all bullshit....and don't work.
You are right though....they are distracting and it requires a LOT of concentration to deal with them and the price action....especially at the speed of ES and NQ.
More...


well. It is up to you.

I know of some successful traders who use indicators.
 
maxinger said:
if you see my journal, those who traded on 29 Mar will most likely lose money.
Sometimes market moves gently and nicely (and that's where trading is easy)
and sometimes market moves unwillingly,jerkily .... (and that's where trading is difficult).
avoid trading difficult market at all cost.
More...
Here is my summary from today:
Metrics All Trades Long Trades Short Trades
Performance Summary
Net Profit $820.00 ($65.00) $885.00
Gross Profit $2,865.00 $940.00 $1,925.00
Gross Loss ($2,045.00) ($1,005.00) ($1,040.00)
Profit Factor 140.10% 93.53% 185.10%
Max # Contracts Held 4 4 4
Open Position P/L 0 0 0
Sharpe Ratio 0
Net Profit as % of Largest loss 202.47% -16.05% 218.52%

Time Analysis
Trading Period from 3/29/2019 07:24:15 to 3/29/2019 15:59:57 8 hrs. 35 min. 42 sec.
Time in the Market 1 hrs. 36 min. 6 sec.
Percent in the Market 18.63%
Longest flat period 2 hrs. 38 min. 58 sec.

Total Trade Analysis
Total # of Trades 26 11 15
Total # of Open Trades 0 0 0
Number Winning Trades 15 6 9
Number Losing Trades 9 4 5
Total # of Contracts 194 97 97
% Profitable 62.50% 60.00% 64.29%
Avg Trade (win & loss) $34.17 ($6.50) $63.21
Average Winning Trade $191.00 $156.67 $213.89
Average Losing Trade ($227.22) ($251.25) ($208.00)
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss 0.84 0.62 1.03
Largest Winning Trade $500.00 $400.00 $500.00
Largest Losing Trade ($405.00) ($405.00) ($405.00)

Trade Series Analysis
Max Consec. Winners 3 2 2
Max Consec. Losers 2 1 2
Largest Consecutive Profit $840.00 $450.00 $500.00
Largest Consecutive Loss $405.00 $405.00 $405.00

General information
Created on date/time 3/29/2019 15:59
Analysis Period from 3/29/2019 00:00:00 to 3/29/2019 15:59:57 15 hrs. 59 min. 56 sec.

That $405 is that damn NQ trade...that really hurt. I was up $485 in the morning, then lost most of it in the afternoon chop. Had a decent trade that put me up $400...and at the close I had a spectacular short ES trade....$480 in 11 seconds....that was a rush.
This is such a head game...I was so tempted to stop trading when I was up $485...but no, I wanted more....and I nearly got burnt. Just brute force determination kept me in the game.
Also note, that on a bullish day, I made most of my money on SHORT trades....and that's another problem I have: Short bias...I just feel I have to short for some reason....it's a psych thing. I gotta fix that.
 
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