ES mini futures ahead of NFP release
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
Ok. But I could test it just by pretending also.
I will hereby officially pretend to buy ES at 3am EST on Friday 2/7/20.
And when will I officially sell it? I have no idea, which brings me to the first problem with my strategy. No exit plan upon entry.
This was the problem.
I went ahead and jumped the gun. I went long at 3345.25.
I want to close it at about 1-1.5 hours after the jobs report at 8:30am EST. I cannot find an option on TradeStation that allows me to sell at this time regardless of market conditions. I cannot guarantee that I will be here to watch, and as discussed earlier, I don't really WANT to live that kind of life where I'm forced to look at charts for hours per day. (I realize smart phones make this a lot easier, though).
I picked 1-1.5 hours after release because this is what I estimate is the timeframe where the jobs report is the primary mover of the market. That estimate isn't based on much besides an educated guess at this point. Perhaps the jobs report will move the market all day.
NFP was a nothingburger today. I guess the virus stuff is still on top of everyone's mind.
Right, sorry about that. I confused yesterday's NFP from ADP with the actual NFP. Bloody data points! As you can tell, my mind is conflating times and dates, and getting too clouded with all these data points.
Is my math correct...
If ES goes up 1% from where I bought (3345.25), that's a gain of 334.525, which becomes 1338.1 when multiplied by 4 (to account for the 0.25 minimum movement). Each 0.25 movement is $12.50, so that all equals $16,726.25 if it goes up 1%.
If ES goes up 1% from where I bought (3345.25), that's a gain of 334.525, which becomes 1338.1 when multiplied by 4 (to account for the 0.25 minimum movement). Each 0.25 movement is $12.50, so that all equals $16,726.25 if it goes up 1%.
Did the same thing last week ... being off by a day.Made comment on Weds night, thinking it was Thurs, that many traders wouldn't want to go into weekend holding positions duh. As it happened they went long again on Thursday, then cashed in profits before Friday came with more shorts added.
Of course, as we all saw, more longs pounced on the those who went short. Round and round till the punch bowl finally runs dry.
My round and round, like a clock, only lasts 24 hours.
A 1% move in either direction in ES at 3345 would be 33.5 points. Rounded. At 50 bux per point, it is 1650 bux and change.
Yer calculating a 10% move.
If you make 334.50 points of price movement then yes you would make 334.50 * $12.50 or $16,725. But not 1% but 10%.
Nice if you get it but what is even more important is how much would you have to risk to possibly get it.
Concentrating on how much you make rather than how much you might lose if what amateurs do. Just sayin'.