ES mini futures ahead of NFP release

farmerjohn1324 · Feb 17, 2020

bootsyjam said:
The best way to trade news announcements is to only trade when the results are a surprise i.e. way outside of analysts high/low expectations. There will be the initial jump and then price will retrace a bit (and very quickly) which will be your entry. The mistake is trying to get in on that first impulse move, and to also trade on news which is broadly in line with expectations. Might as well toss a coin for those ones

Funny that I actually guessed correctly that it would beat expectations. Although I do know it was luck.

I did something like you said one time betting against the Norweigian Krone (NOK). It was after an attack by Yemen on Saudi oil facilities...

The price of NOK went up because it's correlated to price of oil. I bet that it was an overreaction. I would have made a very hefty return if it were real money.

bootsyjam · Feb 17, 2020

farmerjohn1324 said:
Funny that I actually guessed correctly that it would beat expectations. Although I do know it was luck.

I did something like you said one time betting against the Norweigian Krone (NOK). It was after an attack by Yemen on Saudi oil facilities...

The price of NOK went up because it's correlated to price of oil. I bet that it was an overreaction. I would have made a very hefty return if it were real money.

Congratulations, you know have a trading edge that if applied methodically and consistently will make you money. What are you waiting for?

This post might come across as sarcasm but I can assure you that it isn't. You've sussed out an edge and understand why it works and how to play it. Get in there!

farmerjohn1324 · Feb 17, 2020

bootsyjam said:
Congratulations, you know have a trading edge that if applied methodically and consistently will make you money. What are you waiting for? This post might come across as sarcasm but I can assure you that it isn't. You've sussed out an edge and understand why it works and how to play it. Get in there!

1. Because I have a business with practically 100% guaranteed profits that I still have room to expand.

2. Because these types of events (overreacting to news) don't happen regularly enough to do every day. And I'm definitely not 100% sure that I wouldn't lose lots of money if I tried.