ES Journal Archive (2011)

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float like a butterfly,sting like a bee,you dont have to marry every trade all or nothing ,fluctuate your position with the market ,strong s/r, weak s/r,til ya get the right pitch then ride it out of the park
 
Quote from ammo:

float like a butterfly,sting like a bee,you dont have to marry every trade all or nothing ,fluctuate your position with the market ,strong s/r, weak s/r,til ya get the right pitch then ride it out of the park
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Good advice.
 
Quote from ammo:

float like a butterfly,sting like a bee,you dont have to marry every trade all or nothing ,fluctuate your position with the market ,strong s/r, weak s/r,til ya get the right pitch then ride it out of the park
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Yes I'm just coming from a mathematical perspective -- it's kind of like adding to losing trades, and cutting winning trades, it's not really sound. So, why should I cut my position when I'm winning (scaling out)?

There is no right or wrong and as you have shown, it's possible to make money scaling into a losing position, so different strokes for different folks.

My point was just to point out that everyone seems to be into "scaling out" and from a mathematical perspective it's not really that sound. I've seen someone scale in with first a 1/2 position, then 1/3, and then 1/6. Or it could be 1/2, 3/10, then 1/5. Or whatever. That way you get a reasonable position on early, and then add as it goes your way. Then you could choose to scale out, or do an all out.
 
Quote from Visaria:

TBH, this scaling in/out, shake it all about is something i'm only considering now. There appear to be tradeoffs with everything we do. Nevertheless the FLEXIBILITY to exit partially a position, whether or not you choose to do so, has merit.
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Indeed V, lots of merit -- also though, having the flexibility to add to a position after scaling out part of it is attractive as well. I see lots of people (and myself too) only scale out. The problem is if you catch a great move you have so little left if you haven't added to it that you then have to make the same decision as if you only had one unit to begin with -- do I take it off here, or wait?

Now, I'm talking about adding to a winner only, such that the add will place the average price still below the stop loss for the entire position (on a long).
 
This observation about scale-in/out applies to any instrument not just ES. The best way in my experience is to scale-in as the position moves against you and then take out the whole position in one go once it reaches its target objective. Important thing to keep in mind with this approach is that : This approach is least risky to apply when trading with the fundamentals over trades that last multiple days. This approach is riskier to apply intraday since prices might keep moving in opposite direction of fundamentals for multiple days or even weeks at times. So, applying this approach to multiday/week trades is less risky and almost always highly profitable.

I will give an example. When Gold fell to 1550 eventually, if someone started to buy a contract for each 50$ down, starting from 1700 (trying to pick the bottom), by the time price reached 1550, he will have 4 contracts at an average price of 1625, he just needs to wait for few days and the fundamental move in Gold prices would have reversed back and reached their mean (remember that move down was caused mostly by forced liquidation). In such situations, applying above approach is the best way to trade, imo. my 2 cents.
 
Morning everyone!

DOM intermittently skewed to the upside

up xdown volume (not yet significant)

TICK positive

Good luck/skill everyone
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Just running stops and consolidating, I think.

R1 = 56.

Gap fill @ 57,25.

AH high @ 59,5 (Thursday high as well).
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Hi LF, what gap fill?
 
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