ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from JoshDance:

I will buy at support here, at 22.50, stop at 20.00, looking for a rebound up overnight
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Well, it stopped at 23.00, and looks like after a 4 point rebound up that it may want to retest. So, if it breaks 23 I have a sense that it will want to go further south than 22.50. And I'm unsure whether I want to buy around 24 or not. Will watch and see... either way pulling the 22.50 buy.
 
Just dipped one tick below the prior low to 22.75, one tick above my original buy order. I am not convinced this is the bottom yet, for while the selling looks a bit dried up, the buying is not really commencing as I think it should.
 
Quote from JoshDance:

Just dipped one tick below the prior low to 22.75, one tick above my original buy order. I am not convinced this is the bottom yet, for while the selling looks a bit dried up, the buying is not really commencing as I think it should.
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Well, this is quite a move down -- 17 handles in just over 3 hours. Quite impressive -- wish we had gotten this much movement in RTH!

As I was typing two posts ago, price was at 26-27, and I mentioned that another visit down looked probable. So why didn't I just take a short? I would have made a very easy 3 points, and could have locked in 6 at this point, had I just gone with the weakness. I think at the heart of this lies the secret to my personal trading success--doing the hard thing, when you know it's the right thing to do.

I think we all fear (though I can only speak for myself) missing out on a trend. When I do this, my tendency is to want to then fade, so I can catch the move back, which often never happens. Would I rather have one piece of pie even when I could have had four pieces, or would I rather have none and instead have to make a pie for someone else to eat? This is the difficulty for me.

Current low is 1220, with two nice volume spikes, and buying just hit the tape. It still does not look substantial enough for a real bottom and either way I am not going to get into this. At the very least I learned that had I stuck with my original trade, I would currently have stopped out to the low tick. Waiting for some real buying before joining proved to be a good idea yet again.
 
Looking to add to short on pullback up at 25-28. I hope it gets there, should be decent entry based on 60 min chart.

Market still looking bearish based on 60 min MA's I track.

Good luck all. Should be an interesting overnight.
 
Quote from JoshDance:

Well, this is quite a move down -- 17 handles in just over 3 hours. Quite impressive -- wish we had gotten this much movement in RTH!

As I was typing two posts ago, price was at 26-27, and I mentioned that another visit down looked probable. So why didn't I just take a short? I would have made a very easy 3 points, and could have locked in 6 at this point, had I just gone with the weakness. I think at the heart of this lies the secret to my personal trading success--doing the hard thing, when you know it's the right thing to do.

I think we all fear (though I can only speak for myself) missing out on a trend. When I do this, my tendency is to want to then fade, so I can catch the move back, which often never happens. Would I rather have one piece of pie even when I could have had four pieces, or would I rather have none and instead have to make a pie for someone else to eat? This is the difficulty for me.

Current low is 1220, with two nice volume spikes, and buying just hit the tape. It still does not look substantial enough for a real bottom and either way I am not going to get into this. At the very least I learned that had I stuck with my original trade, I would currently have stopped out to the low tick. Waiting for some real buying before joining proved to be a good idea yet again.
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JD, believe me, we all fall victim to this. It is our egos that cause this. Stick with your strengths and leave the rest for the amateurs.
 
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