ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Inability to break 1240 today on the bounce was key. Market necessarily needs to pull back and set up for a long. Trend remains up here. I will get long again on proper set up. :)
 
Quote from ammo:

trend changed here,today was an inside day,doesn't count as a bounce,sell the rallies..compare the selling on strength money leaving and the buying on weakness coming in...http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html
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I've been meaning to ask ammo--with these numbers, what we're seeing is:

stocks that are up that have the largest outflow
stocks that are down that have the largest inflow

However, what about stocks that are up that have inflow, and stocks that are down that have outflow?

So when I look at these charts, what do I measure what I'm seeing against?

Ok just did a little historical data searching. How about this:
http://screencast.com/t/KVhL9r4LoE

For the huge up day, 10/27, there was a nice negative net flow for the DJIA. Perhaps this can be used as kind of a proxy for open interest -- money leaving the stocks, yet they rise overall. It makes some sense to me, but I don't think I have a really good grasp on fundamentally what this means.
 
As I think about this more, here's what I come up with. Money flow is defined by WSJ as dollar value of uptick trades minus dollar value of downtick trades. So, a negative money flow on a rising stock simply means that there is more market selling going on, and the bids are holding well. Similar to a delta divergence which I often post about. This may in fact be bullish, and bearish for the opposite scenario. This calculation does not seem to take into account market positions as does open interest; thus I'm not sure how useful it is, versus something we have real time like a delta. I will do some comparison of delta to what I see on the WSJ page in the next day or two and see if I see correlations.
 
Quote from EminitraderDM:

Did that sound like criticism to you? I think its fantastic that you fly by the seat of your pants. Your like a floor trader in front of a screen.

Its intriguing...

I actually admire the fact that anyone can pull a profit out of todays market. I couldn't.

With my trading I have BIG profit days and a lot of ZERO days. Today was a ZERO.
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Well, I do the best I can. A few others here are pretty good consistently. Do look forward to seeing a few of your trades here over next few weeks. Best wishes.
 
Here is a good one. My wife wakes me up at 2:30am to kill a freakin bug in our bedroom. So of course I cannot fall back asleep and here I am at 3am looking at the market as I type this. My overnight order of 1225 did not get filled (missed by 2 handles). I added to my short at 1217.25 with more to add at 1222.25.

Gloom and doom is out there. Does not look to be ending soon.
 
The great thing about the market is the techical warning shoot it gave us late monday night with longer term MA crossovers (50 below 200), 60 min chart. So far it is holding and looks to be getting more bearish as news keeps coming out.

The longer term charts (daily and weekly) are also very interesting if you compare the patterns to what happened in May 2008. Not saying it will repeat but if it does, the downside in this market could be really ugly.
 
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