ES Journal Archive (2011)

[volente_00]

Quote from volente_00:

Shorting ES here at 1164-68 spx with ES stop at 1175 and open target

DEMTDAYBOYZ got me for -14.

 

[Builder17]

short 77.75
stop 80.75
target 72

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from volente_00:

DEMTDAYBOYZ got me for -14.

78-82 where the breakdown originated.

Toping from there means we get 1148 again.

 

[gkramer]

Quote from gkramer:

Here's our bounce today. Good for about Dow 11250. Doug Kass says the bottom is in. Maybe. I'm just trading what I see.

Target area reached.

 

[diablo11]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

78-82 where the breakdown originated.

Toping from there means we get 1148 again.

Which breakdown? I thought before the leg down last week we were above 1200?

 

[gkramer]

Quote from volente_00:

How can you ignore tha H&S pattern on that chart? It's only the highest probability topping pattern that exist.


A healthy bull S&P market does not shed nearly 100 points in 2 days without a valid reason. 1020 -1040 is where we are heading

Never said I was ignoring it. Just looking for the pullback to resistance. Mission accomplished.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from diablo11:

Which breakdown? I thought before the leg down last week we were above 1200?

double top from 1215, neckline 1178-82

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

78-82 where the breakdown originated.

Toping from there means we get 1148 again.

spy options get heavy at 118. Lower high on channel could trade this back to 1200 and still be bearish. I will look to reshort soon

 

[tortoise]

Quote from FreakofNature:

That would be above 1300s.

To get there we would need to break the right shoulder first.

Not before breaking the 2011 lows and testing the 2010 lows, at least that how i read it.

FoN

Thinking about this. Well, I can't argue with that on its own merits. But this does reinforce, for me, the limitations of TA as a predictive tool. What we have before us is a roadmap, of sorts, one that lays out a number of scenarios and assigns a rough probability to their realization based on historical precedent. The path actually taken, however, can (not necessarily will) depend on exogenous factors that cannot be predicted by TA -- or, as a rule, by anything else.

Sorry if I'm coming off didactic here -- I'm talking to myself as much as to anyone else -- but I think one of the great dangers in using TA is to mistake its analytical power for a predictive utility that it simply cannot have.

Bottom line: That right shoulder may hold. It may not. In either event, your analysis remains correct. Under no scenario is it predictive.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from volente_00:

spy options get heavy at 118. Lower high on channel could trade this back to 1200 and still be bearish. I will look to reshort soon

Reaction at 1180 area is expected.

How much pullback we get from there will tell if 1200 is next target to tag for this melt up.

I do have strong bias that the gap below will be filled within today or tomorrow. =)