ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from diablo11:

I'm thinking I am far enough in the money to give it a shot letting it ride, just needed someone to tell me I wasn't crazy for doing so, haa.
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With all the sociopolitical things going on right now.

I'm not sure how much of a buffer you really need to feel safe these days.

One bad move by Europe and you could see limit down.

A fed move and you could see a superb rally.

All very unpredictable and dangerous when the markets are closed.
 
diablo> if the close is weak, maybe
wouldn't use too much leverage over the weekend if i were you though.
if you must have a position you can also use etfs or options.
i'm going to hold some shorts over the weekend but only 30% of my account.
 
My slight bias at this stage is that we put in the low. There was sufficient ES end of trend flush volume and we have a 10/20 sma cross on the daily. ES 1175 is of course the gap close but also 50% longer term (983.25/1368.25). We'll see, but I have covered all shorts at least for today. Hogs get slaughtered.
 
As long as NQ 2176 holds, there is upside risk to ES 1199. Another NQ drop below 2176 would be very bearish and we should see that 2165.50 gap, possibly even lower to 2157. But with the VIX back below R2, I doubt it.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Obviously, gaps can be filled from both sides.

Printing 1189 would now fill the gap first mentioned. With this new large gap down from yesterday`s close, we would need to print 1202,25 to close this new gap.

The 50% level of a gap is often a good target in the case we can`t fill it in one go. Most often occurs with large gaps.

That gives us 1182 for the 1st gap. 1192,5 for the gap created today.

I would be cautious about swinging a long from here since NQ did not feel it`s gap just below @ 2261.

Short term there are many possible scenarios though, so let price action be the final judge and use a stop that you can afford to lose :)

My humble arm chair commentary since I`m only looking today :cool:
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The only gaps that matter are cash.



Lower filled perfectly which leaves 1204 cash open now


just coincidence that the 50% is sitting at 1203.6 if we move back up from here


also the 50% from 1121 to 1230 cash move is ~ 1175
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Technical analysis still works, but the market conditions are ever changing. You may have thrived in the recent market conditions with many big winners on the short side and lots of momentum, right?

Then you have a day like Monday, slowly drifting higher on low volume. And even with a 20 point range, that seems small. Completely different from what we`ve seen lately, right? If you tried to pick a top that day more than once, I`m sure you`re not the only one, hint hint ;)

And when you start thinking you need to start looking only for a long on the subsequent days, the market is suddenly back in crash mode? :)

I`ve been going over my charts after hours and believe me, technical analysis still works. It`s just so damn hard to pick up on it in real time if we decide to project our views onto the market instead of seeing what is actually happening, moment from moment.

And that`s why I am not trading today :)

You`ll come back stronger, but DO use a stop unless you want to blow up that is.
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r10 still working like a champ regardless of market conditions
 
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