ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Anyone can offer market commentary that says "We're in a long term uptrend, buy the retracements, don't fade it, don't call tops..." You're just stating basic trend-following rules for swing traders that have been stated for decades by authors and educators.
If you want to build credibility here, you can do one of three things:
1) Call your live trades for a while with your profit targets and risk management rules stated in advance
2) Post your trade blotters for a while so we can cross-reference the charts on our own and figure out how a professional trader extracts money from the market.
3) At the very least, call trades in advance with entry price triggers, profit targets and risk management rules, even if you personally don't take the trades.
Ammo calls his trades and trade management processes all day every day. He trades for a living, and it seems he's been doing so successfully for quite some time. Just because he uses market profile instead of specific technical indicators or price bar patterns, and just because he looks to capture profits from counter-trend retracement moves, and just because he trades to the short side (most likely because price tends to fall faster than it rises and in case of a major negative news event, markets tend to crash quickly, rather than rise meteorically), doesn't mean he's a lunatic.
Since you're attacking ammo here, but not any of the long-only average-down traders, I'm guessing that you believe adding to a losing position no matter how far price runs against you is smart as long as your position is in the direction of the long-term trend, but adding to a losing position with a maximum acceptable stop loss planned in advance is lunatic if your position is counter to the long-term trend. Or have I misinterpreted your commentary?
for a long position trader,it takes a lot of balls to ride any size on such a steep up move,knowing that a large down open could be any time, my hat is off to those....,for a short position trader,the risk is capped with fear and a 3- 7 point up opening is easily adjusted on the intraday pullbacks....,in any mass herd ,heading north or south...there are a lot of droppings,...droppings attract ....
What you say is true, it does take tremendous courage to hold considerable positions long after such extended move.
Nevertheless, some might argue that the strongest of trends have these characteristics.
However, what I find fascinating is how the new higher highs are created, it's almost like shorting new highs guarantees a profitable quick target if you are nimble but then again so is buying the pull backs.
Market is allowing bulls and bears to make money, it's just that in this case it's allowing dumb and clever bulls to make money but only clever bears like yourself.
I wonder, is your style any different when we have a bear market ? I ask because the bear market rallies are some sickening stuff.
NAD
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