ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from ammo:

how about projecting out to tommorrows close,if we are to get to that 1100-1110 area,how much of that push is planned for tommorrow and if they want to mark it there,where will they stall it today so they can accumulate,at what time of day will we hit our highs so they can unload for a profit while still preserving a good mark for the close, they ran it up in after hours while the paper was lite and the market easier to manipulate,what about tonite, where are the stops up above,we need to take those out too
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Here's the likely scenario. We'll be rangebound for the rest of the day until we break out just before the close. If not, certainly it'll get pierced in the AH for the obvious reason you already stated. Then we're off to the races again.
 
Quote from petty1978:

Does this analysis influence your intra-day trading at all?
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Why, yes. Buy those dips, baby! :D
On a serious note, your intraday and the daily/weekly should line up. However they're not unilateral. One sways another. Hence, it can go both ways (see below).

Alright, I've yacked enough. Back to trading. Good luck and have a good weekend, y'all!

Quote from saliva:
(from Unholy Grail thread)

TRAP: Top-Down or Bottom-Up?

Here's food for thought. Any trader wearing the badge of honor stamped with the seal of approval from the TA camp would subscribe to one method or the other. Most traders that I know use the top-down approach whereby they start out with the "BIG frigging picture" and from there narrow down to the microcosm of 1-minute chart (or the tick chart).

But, wait! Hold ure pants for a moment! If you think about it, the daily bars can't be formed before the hourly bars, and the hourly before the 15-minute chart, all the way down to the tick increment. So if you know where the price is heading on the 5-minute chart, you could predict how the 15-minute chart will play out and that, in turn, will allow you to see where the hourly chart will pan out. Dig it?

These two methods are not diametrically opposite as you might think. Actually, they work quite well together.
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Quote from petty1978:

As for me, I have larger swing trade guides that are always analyzed through EOD data to predict my swings.

I have Intra-day signals that fire all day long...so my intra-day trading has no bias up or down and any discretionary trading I do is swing oriented from EOD data.

But to those that accurately do what you spoke about I have much respect for, because I always found it too unpredictable to "nail" and produce trading models around.

Do you trade around understanding "likely" scenarios you spoke about? If so, I would love to hear more about your analysis if that is something you would like to share [in part] with me [if you already have shared with this forum in the past].

Thanks Ammo.
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a fewer days ago after a post on the euro,u asked if i traded currencies, i answered no, but the markets were watching the eur so i was trying to see how they might size it up in the short term,( since that time,i think 2 days ago, they had the media splash and report all about the Chinese saying they wouldn't dump the euro,to take the focus off of it and allow them to safely run it up for the end o momth) presently these firms have a running record of who's got the best stats or returns ,monthly,quarterly,yearly ,etc...year in year out. Since they have the most cash and/or are the biggest players and this data is tantamount when keeping or drawing customers,this is where their focus is presently,most of us trade by the minute ,hour, a day or two out,so the short term focus is always what is their short term focus?...Nothing complicated,just a little fundamental bias applied to the chart setups,if it goes up, where,if it goes down, where
 
Quote from ammo:

a fewer days ago after a post on the euro,u asked if i traded currencies, i answered no, but the markets were watching the eur so i was trying to see how they might size it up in the short term,( since that time,i think 2 days ago, they had the media splash and report all about the Chinese saying they wouldn't dump the euro,to take the focus off of it and allow them to safely run it up for the end o momth) presently these firms have a running record of who's got the best stats or returns ,monthly,quarterly,yearly ,etc...year in year out. Since they have the most cash and/or are the biggest players and this data is tantamount when keeping or drawing customers,this is where their focus is presently,most of us trade by the minute ,hour, a day or two out,so the short term focus is always what is their short term focus?...Nothing complicated,just a little fundamental bias applied to the chart setups,if it goes up, where,if it goes down, where
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cool man thanks-
 
Right out of high school i worked at Firestone,we had to go to the farms occassionally to change tractor tires, there was a farmer with a big pond near the road, and in the winter it would freeze over,there must have been 20 -30 geese on it and a dog,the dog would run at the geese and stop and slide on the ice, sort of a game for both, anyway the geese would fly up and reland on another part of the pond, seeing the market respond to these news reports reminded me of that dog and those geese
 
Quote from petty1978:

I am stating specific numbers and likely scenarios and have been consistent in my analysis...I have real reasons for my numbers and if they are wrong they are wrong and new numbers present themselves...

...furthermore,these are not predictions "for entertainment and shootin the Sh*t" they are actually guides for my larger swing trades...so IF I am wrong in my analysis, I loose real money.
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Hold on Petty, you don't owe me any explanation of your efforts.

This is a solitary game played out between the Trader and Price with no room for spectators.

FWIW, I imagine that you commit a great deal more time and effort into preparation than I do, since I let price do all the heavy lifting and I just tow along for the ride.
It wasn't always this way I grant you.
 
Quote from jjf:

Hold on Petty, you don't owe me any explanation of your efforts.

This is a solitary game played out between the Trader and Price with no room for spectators.

FWIW, I imagine that you commit a great deal more time and effort into preparation than I do, since I let price do all the heavy lifting and I just tow along for the ride.
It wasn't always this way I grant you.
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No its ok, so much gets lost in translation via these forums and we all trade differently...It's nice to know how people approach this [at times masochistic :) ] profession.
 
Quote from schizo:

Here's the likely scenario. We'll be rangebound for the rest of the day until we break out just before the close. If not, certainly it'll get pierced in the AH for the obvious reason you already stated. Then we're off to the races again.
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So far, so good. Roughly two hours left to go.
 
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