ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from petty1978:

Blows my mind how anybody can trade like this...its so abstract. I don's think trading and abstract is scalable by any means. I am not making a case against complex, but this isn't as complex as it is abstract. However, my company executes automated [intraday][swing] trading models for over 20 people so maybe I am internally jaded if it isn't easily transferable to ones and zero's.

If this is how everyone in here trades or in similar context I am flabbergasted.

NoDoji this isn't a critique of how you trade. You seem really sharp. There are SO many ways to trade successfully. I guess Its more of a dialogue about how disconnected I am from trading 1 account and the differences that exist.

I trade lower highs as reversal signals and in a down trend, higher lows as a reversal signal and in an uptrend. I often trade off hammers and inverted hammers (shooting stars) at the top or bottom of a strong move; it's a high probability trade. I sometimes trade breakouts, buying a new high or selling a new low. I use a 5-min chart and 20-bar EMA with Keltner bands to assist in targeting profit-taking zones and to gauge momentum moves, and finally I use previous S/R levels as initial profit target zones as well.

So how I trade is based on simple price action setups and I trade very little, usually 1-5 trades a day.

My post late yesterday provided a lot of backdrop leading in to what I suddenly perceived as the prelude to a late day surprise move. It suddenly clicked for me as to why these late day moves often take us by surprise. I've seen it happen a lot and yesterday I thought had an insight into why.

So, I'm not sure which part of my previous post constitutes do I "trade like this". Do I trade based on the complex and abstract set of conditions leading into my theory that price would make a violent move up into the close yesterday? Absolutely not. That's why I was afraid to trade it live. I didn't trust it the way I trust a simple lower high in a downtrend.

My post was to see if any long time traders see this kind of setup lead into strong surprise breakout moves late in the day.

There are quite a lot of different trading styles on this thread and it's interesting to see everyone making a profit in very different ways.
 
Quote from ammo:

what did the automated trading systems you mentioned,do on may 6? Did they have any automatic shutoff switch or breaker

Ammo,

As I continue to share with this forum how I trade [to a degree] I hope you will see how it all works from my end.

On 5-6-10 our time in the market that day was very limited. Yeah we do have the ability to shut it all down from various angles. Manually from the server, phone application etc. We also have various points of risk management incorporated into each system. One being, each account has a "total" daily/weekly/monthly/yearly loss matrix associated with it. The engines shut down appropriately...and fortunately, we have only had to shut down accounts here and there for maximum daily losses...

My models are very predictive and safe. The techniques [what actually provides executable signals with entry, exit and stop orders] I trade with utilize bar range H/L and O/C, 3 bar pivot, median point of total range of H/L, where bars open in relation to previous closes and expansion of bars in multiples of 50%/100%/200% and reversions back to these points etc etc...ok, so what happens is during times of melt UPS/DOWNS this style [with applied logic blocks] actually takes you out of the market and doesn't signal at all.

We had 1 trade that day for 6 point profit. No signals after 11am. I personally saw risk developing the higher the market rose and a lot of downside but didn't have a clue that drop would happen like that, that fast, but to make money you don't have to. I don't have a blog or offer market commentary to clients. So I don't worry about the "bigger' picture as I do smaller horizons.

I also utilize various guides from analysis of daily bars, globex and no-globex session correlation, consecutive opens higher or lower in multiples of 3's and so much more....at the core of how I trade it is simple but it also complicated.

Any trades I post in this forum are before hand and good or bad, I stand behind them. However, they are not all the trade signals that exist on my side and there is not logic to money managment, me moving stops to break even or trailing them at certain points.

I will be as transparent as I can be considering what I do for a living and my obligations there. If you or anyone is interested to learn more about how I trade, I like to do that in private messaging or private email. I love questions, because I am a question guy as well.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Do I trade based on the complex and abstract set of conditions leading into my theory that price would make a violent move up into the close yesterday? Absolutely not. That's why I was afraid to trade it live.

Thanks for your response; I will sleep better now knowing you are sticking to your trading philosophy! :)
 
Quote from petty1978:

Blows my mind how anybody can trade like this...its so abstract. I don's think trading and abstract is scalable by any means. I am not making a case against complex, but this isn't as complex as it is abstract. However, my company executes automated [intraday][swing] trading models for over 20 people so maybe I am internally jaded if it isn't easily transferable to ones and zero's.

If this is how everyone in here trades or in similar context I am flabbergasted.

NoDoji this isn't a critique of how you trade. You seem really sharp. There are SO many ways to trade successfully. I guess Its more of a dialogue about how disconnected I am from trading 1 account and the differences that exist.

NoDoji combines her intense PA research with what I suspect is a high level of intuition, born out of very focused and well-spent screen time sim trading. She is an extraordinary trader no doubt, but like you said petty, there are many ways to skin this cat.

To offer a comment on NoDoji's reference to a "strong move off the open", take a look at bar 2 which had a 9-pt body on >100k volume. I've found that 5-min bars in the 1st 30 min of RTH with a 5pt or greater candle body on 50k vol or more are often strongly predictive of a large run in the same direction. Granted, yesterday you would've felt late to the party entering long at 1064, but you had a 24-pt up move from there.

I would be curious to get others' perspectives on early WRB's.
 
Quote from tomahawk:

To offer a comment on NoDoji's reference to a "strong move off the open", take a look at bar 2 which had a 9-pt body on >100k volume. I've found that 5-min bars in the 1st 30 min of RTH with a 5pt or greater candle body on 50k vol or more are often strongly predictive of a large run in the same direction. Granted, yesterday you would've felt late to the party entering long at 1064, but you had a 24-pt up move from there.

I would be curious to get others' perspectives on early WRB's.

Early WRB's often keep me out of good with-trend trades. Al Brooks says to switch to a 1-min chart for entries after a very strong move because in a strong trend you'll miss the boat altogether if you wait for a pullback to the 20 EMA. I can see why so many traders just play the ORB off the opening 5-min bar because if you catch it early you feel "safely" positioned with the trend and have little to lose.

Looking at ES chart from the time I left yesterday around 10:00am, I wonder if I would've taken the long entry on the 10:30am bar break through 1071.75. I doubt it, even though it's a textbook with-trend long signal. Even if I took the trade, I would've likely ended up stopped out b/e on the pullback from the lower high and then might have reversed to short and been stopped out b/e on that trade. At that point I would've taken a break in frustration, missed the long entry @ 1073.00 off the close of the 10:50am signal bar, and missed a great leg up.

Schiz, on the other hand, is so damn persistent. He would've been long, flip short, flip long and then probably gotten the whole rest of the move on at least part of his position :cool:
 
Quote from petty1978:

Ammo,

As I continue to share with this forum how I trade [to a degree] I hope you will see how it all works from my end.

On 5-6-10 our time in the market that day was very limited. Yeah we do have the ability to shut it all down from various angles. Manually from the server, phone application etc. We also have various points of risk management incorporated into each system. One being, each account has a "total" daily/weekly/monthly/yearly loss matrix associated with it. The engines shut down appropriately...and fortunately, we have only had to shut down accounts here and there for maximum daily losses...

My models are very predictive and safe. The techniques [what actually provides executable signals with entry, exit and stop orders] I trade with utilize bar range H/L and O/C, 3 bar pivot, median point of total range of H/L, where bars open in relation to previous closes and expansion of bars in multiples of 50%/100%/200% and reversions back to these points etc etc...ok, so what happens is during times of melt UPS/DOWNS this style [with applied logic blocks] actually takes you out of the market and doesn't signal at all.

We had 1 trade that day for 6 point profit. No signals after 11am. I personally saw risk developing the higher the market rose and a lot of downside but didn't have a clue that drop would happen like that, that fast, but to make money you don't have to. I don't have a blog or offer market commentary to clients. So I don't worry about the "bigger' picture as I do smaller horizons.

I also utilize various guides from analysis of daily bars, globex and no-globex session correlation, consecutive opens higher or lower in multiples of 3's and so much more....at the core of how I trade it is simple but it also complicated.

Any trades I post in this forum are before hand and good or bad, I stand behind them. However, they are not all the trade signals that exist on my side and there is not logic to money managment, me moving stops to break even or trailing them at certain points.

I will be as transparent as I can be considering what I do for a living and my obligations there. If you or anyone is interested to learn more about how I trade, I like to do that in private messaging or private email. I love questions, because I am a question guy as well.
with the 50/100/200% reversions and extensions,i dont see any way to trade this w/o a system,thanks for sharing as u have thus far,good call on the market moves along with vol,king,wave, atticus,emg,startraitor,a few others ,this journal was very useful yesterday
 
Quote from ammo:

with the 50/100/200% reversions and extensions,i dont see any way to trade this w/o a system,thanks for sharing as u have thus far,good call on the market moves along with vol,king,wave, atticus,emg,startraitor,a few others ,this journal was very useful yesterday

Ammo of course there is logic involved. I don't expect you to understand how to use the expansion levels and reversions. There is so much more involved, like how the candle is built, time and its sequential order. It isn't "common" knowledge. As I show a trading model or two you will see the details and how reliable they are.

My signals are very potent and they cross into other markets without any adjustments [most of the time].

My hope is to demystify a few things [at least in the ES] and if I can help 1 struggling trader simplify his trading regimen and become profitable, then its been worthwhile.

The proof is in the pudding.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Early WRB's often keep me out of good with-trend trades. Al Brooks says to switch to a 1-min chart for entries after a very strong move because in a strong trend you'll miss the boat altogether if you wait for a pullback to the 20 EMA. I can see why so many traders just play the ORB off the opening 5-min bar because if you catch it early you feel "safely" positioned with the trend and have little to lose.

To me, the opening range alone does not tell the entire picture since there will be many "ranges" throughout the day. Hence, it makes more sense to break it down into price swings.

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Quote from NoDoji:


I never can bring myself to trade these kinds of setups live because they look wrong, they appear to be counter-trend. Yet the overall trend intraday was up and the setup had a lot fuel to push price higher rather than lower.


What do you consider to be the difference between 'reversal' and 'counter trend'. Just wondering because I see that you often trade 'reversals' with success.

Also, what made you think the 15:30 and 15:35 bars indicated support?

Thanks
 
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