ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from NoDoji:



ES was a much smoother ride off the open, shoulda just traded that.
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There is VALUE in following one instrument. I know i have tried to implant this into you before. :D

Think of all the men that get in trouble after taking a flyer off the reservation.

I let the RIGHT women get away in my life, but one thing a always did is not pretend i could handle more that one at a time. :D That was the gal i did NOT follow up on her solid and long time advances.........i messed up on that one chance at the right one.

i will try to answerr your "Q" later, probably in an e-mail because i do that more casually than banging away in a forum. My post count is to high, i would prefer magna to delete post posts, ha. later .
 
totally agree. one time one thing. in reality, whether NQ/ES/YM or whatever stocks, their charts are similar most time

Quote from bighog:

There is VALUE in following one instrument. I know i have tried to implant this into you before. :D

Think of all the men that get in trouble after taking a flyer off the reservation.

I let the RIGHT women get away in my life, but one thing a always did is not pretend i could handle more that one at a time. :D That was the gal i did NOT follow up on her solid and long time advances.........i messed up on that one chance at the right one.

i will try to answerr your "Q" later, probably in an e-mail because i do that more casually than banging away in a forum. My post count is to high, i would prefer magma tio delete post posts, ha. later .
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Quote from schizo:



Now can anyone tell me what fueled the buying frenzy straight out of the gate?
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I don't know if you're looking for fundamental reasons, but technically it was a perfect setup ... fairly steep TL on the hourly going back to the 5/14 low, and completion of the test of that "flash crash" low at 1056.00 which everyone's been talking about for the past 2 weeks (including myself, on this board). Of course it all sounds good after the fact.

Anyway, nice trading today schiz. Have a great weekend.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I find the morning trading to be the most reliable technically, and rarely trade the close because the price action is often surprising (to me). I've been analyzing the price action into the close each day and picked up on something recently that also played out again today (I traded it in my sim account, because I didn't trust it).

I'm looking for some further input from long-time ES traders as to how common this is:

On a 5-min chart, we have a strong move off the oversold open, a pullback to the 20 EMA and just shy of a measured move up from the 20 EMA pivot low (10:30am bar).

Price then drifts down through the midday doldrums, retracing just over 50% of the move from the open.

As we come into the last hour (which I've always heard is when the professionals trade), there's a typical short signal left behind by the 3:25pm bar - inverted red hammer at a lower high in a drifting micro-trend to the downside. The shorts riding the downtrend from the internal double top (1:15pm and 2:00pm bars), will be adding to their positions, or re-shorting off the 3:25pm bar. Seems like the short play is in the bag with shorts likely targeting a lower low around the 1066.00 zone.

The daily trend is up and there's a lot of short fuel loaded up throughout the afternoon. The 3:30pm and 3:35pm bars indicate support rather than the easy breakdown the shorts are looking for. This looks like a short squeeze setup.

It turned out to be just that with a very quick move up. I went long in the sim account @ 1073.00 (1 tick above the 3:35pm bar close, with a stop below the lower wick. I targeted the upper Keltner line (1080.00) and captured a 7-pt move.

I never can bring myself to trade these kinds of setups live because they look wrong, they appear to be counter-trend. Yet the overall trend intraday was up and the setup had a lot fuel to push price higher rather than lower.

Do any of you guys trade this kind of setup, and is it something reliable over time or is it just something that's happening frequently under the current volatility?
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I took that exact same setup, same entry (1073), same exit (1080, which was actually a trend line touch, I don't look at Keltners). The failure of the short setup you described created lots of trapped traders which was fuel for the upmove, which I think of lot of people were anticipating and waiting to jump on. The mistake I made was in exiting at 1080 and not adding on the pullback from it.

I'm not a lot long-time ES trader though, but I do take these types of reversal trades a lot in my market (Hong Kong). Just happened to be home during the day today and saw a great setup.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I find the morning trading to be the most reliable technically, and rarely trade the close because the price action is often surprising (to me). I've been analyzing the price action into the close each day and picked up on something recently that also played out again today (I traded it in my sim account, because I didn't trust it).

I'm looking for some further input from long-time ES traders as to how common this is:

On a 5-min chart, we have a strong move off the oversold open, a pullback to the 20 EMA and just shy of a measured move up from the 20 EMA pivot low (10:30am bar).

Price then drifts down through the midday doldrums, retracing just over 50% of the move from the open.

As we come into the last hour (which I've always heard is when the professionals trade), there's a typical short signal left behind by the 3:25pm bar - inverted red hammer at a lower high in a drifting micro-trend to the downside. The shorts riding the downtrend from the internal double top (1:15pm and 2:00pm bars), will be adding to their positions, or re-shorting off the 3:25pm bar. Seems like the short play is in the bag with shorts likely targeting a lower low around the 1066.00 zone.

The daily trend is up and there's a lot of short fuel loaded up throughout the afternoon. The 3:30pm and 3:35pm bars indicate support rather than the easy breakdown the shorts are looking for. This looks like a short squeeze setup.

It turned out to be just that with a very quick move up. I went long in the sim account @ 1073.00 (1 tick above the 3:35pm bar close, with a stop below the lower wick. I targeted the upper Keltner line (1080.00) and captured a 7-pt move.

I never can bring myself to trade these kinds of setups live because they look wrong, they appear to be counter-trend. Yet the overall trend intraday was up and the setup had a lot fuel to push price higher rather than lower.

Do any of you guys trade this kind of setup, and is it something reliable over time or is it just something that's happening frequently under the current volatility?
More...

Blows my mind how anybody can trade like this...its so abstract. I don's think trading and abstract is scalable by any means. I am not making a case against complex, but this isn't as complex as it is abstract. However, my company executes automated [intraday][swing] trading models for over 20 people so maybe I am internally jaded if it isn't easily transferable to ones and zero's.

If this is how everyone in here trades or in similar context I am flabbergasted.

NoDoji this isn't a critique of how you trade. You seem really sharp. There are SO many ways to trade successfully. I guess Its more of a dialogue about how disconnected I am from trading 1 account and the differences that exist.
 
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