ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
- Start date
- Status
fukity. expected the move up as is the norm. grabbed a couple quick points and backed off. Now off to HOD? laughable manipulation.
Nothing is real said John Lennon
Nothing is real said John Lennon
I find the morning trading to be the most reliable technically, and rarely trade the close because the price action is often surprising (to me). I've been analyzing the price action into the close each day and picked up on something recently that also played out again today (I traded it in my sim account, because I didn't trust it).
I'm looking for some further input from long-time ES traders as to how common this is:
On a 5-min chart, we have a strong move off the oversold open, a pullback to the 20 EMA and just shy of a measured move up from the 20 EMA pivot low (10:30am bar).
Price then drifts down through the midday doldrums, retracing just over 50% of the move from the open.
As we come into the last hour (which I've always heard is when the professionals trade), there's a typical short signal left behind by the 3:25pm bar - inverted red hammer at a lower high in a drifting micro-trend to the downside. The shorts riding the downtrend from the internal double top (1:15pm and 2:00pm bars), will be adding to their positions, or re-shorting off the 3:25pm bar. Seems like the short play is in the bag with shorts likely targeting a lower low around the 1066.00 zone.
The daily trend is up and there's a lot of short fuel loaded up throughout the afternoon. The 3:30pm and 3:35pm bars indicate support rather than the easy breakdown the shorts are looking for. This looks like a short squeeze setup.
It turned out to be just that with a very quick move up. I went long in the sim account @ 1073.00 (1 tick above the 3:35pm bar close, with a stop below the lower wick. I targeted the upper Keltner line (1080.00) and captured a 7-pt move.
I never can bring myself to trade these kinds of setups live because they look wrong, they appear to be counter-trend. Yet the overall trend intraday was up and the setup had a lot fuel to push price higher rather than lower.
Do any of you guys trade this kind of setup, and is it something reliable over time or is it just something that's happening frequently under the current volatility?
I'm looking for some further input from long-time ES traders as to how common this is:
On a 5-min chart, we have a strong move off the oversold open, a pullback to the 20 EMA and just shy of a measured move up from the 20 EMA pivot low (10:30am bar).
Price then drifts down through the midday doldrums, retracing just over 50% of the move from the open.
As we come into the last hour (which I've always heard is when the professionals trade), there's a typical short signal left behind by the 3:25pm bar - inverted red hammer at a lower high in a drifting micro-trend to the downside. The shorts riding the downtrend from the internal double top (1:15pm and 2:00pm bars), will be adding to their positions, or re-shorting off the 3:25pm bar. Seems like the short play is in the bag with shorts likely targeting a lower low around the 1066.00 zone.
The daily trend is up and there's a lot of short fuel loaded up throughout the afternoon. The 3:30pm and 3:35pm bars indicate support rather than the easy breakdown the shorts are looking for. This looks like a short squeeze setup.
It turned out to be just that with a very quick move up. I went long in the sim account @ 1073.00 (1 tick above the 3:35pm bar close, with a stop below the lower wick. I targeted the upper Keltner line (1080.00) and captured a 7-pt move.
I never can bring myself to trade these kinds of setups live because they look wrong, they appear to be counter-trend. Yet the overall trend intraday was up and the setup had a lot fuel to push price higher rather than lower.
Do any of you guys trade this kind of setup, and is it something reliable over time or is it just something that's happening frequently under the current volatility?
Hello!
This statement seems wide-open to interpretation and I would be careful utilizing a trade that has even 1 of those statements involved in it.
Also, keep it simple, the more pieces of logic you have to follow the less likely that trading model will work longterm, in different markets and with varying degrees of market volatility. The most reliable systems are black and white and work the same way all the time.
And a jovial rule of thumb: If I can not fully automate the trading model/theory to test it and then trade with it, and my developers look at me and scratch their heads and I have to call MIT to get the proper mathematical formulas I don't trust it and move on!
Have a great weekend
A measured move, although not a mirror image, works particualrly well in a trending day. However, the downside is that you won't be able to participate in the first leg of MM. BTW, there are various forms of MM, including Time MM.
This is quintessentially ES-esque. Ya won't find this 50% retracement in other markets. I've never found the reason for this although I suspect this market is overrun by the Fib boys from the land of dumb and dumber. :eek:
Although I wouldn't quantify 3:25 bar as a hammer, I believe the long-legged doji at 3:40 was more of a cue that the bears ain't going to get what they want.
As they say, when in doubt, stay out. Just remember that on a day of very strong up or down trend, the market usually closes near the high and the low, respectively. Hardly will you see the damn thing spike 40+ points and then give it all back by the close.
Now can anyone tell me what fueled the buying frenzy straight out of the gate?
Thanks for the input, Schiz.
I think the buying frenzy out of the gate was stocks on sale. Everything seemed bargain priced in pre-market. I had 30 minutes from the open to trade before I had to leave and I saw AMZN in the 118's in pre-market and I had to have some! (AMZN is a great short squeeze play). I was stopped out a couple times off the open (POS price action moving in .30 chunks) and then waited for the ORB and caught a nice move.
ES was a much smoother ride off the open, shoulda just traded that.
I was shorting NQ (1828), and followed the trend to 1800under, thought it will further drop, then it bounces to my EMA (1808), dipped again, I move my stop to the ema under at 1807, late it was token out at 1807.25. from the chart, that is a support zone (the rally toke off and formed another leg up, trapped morning short sellers will cover it there with B/E), I thought the session will crash into the morning low (recently most time the market does that), plan to add more short when it hits 1793under. just as schizo said, if this side wrong, then another side must be right. NQ did not shot much. YM shots 150points in half hours, very nice.
- Status