ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from tommymoose:

This tape is a beatiful thing :) Up huge in FAZ since getting short this market last Thursday.

I don't understand a couple of you here. You fight the tape by shorting the whole way up over the past couple weeks, and when you're finally right and the market is swan diving, you're scalping for a couple points here, a couple points there. This game is tough, I know, even when you're right on the direction, theres often enough chop to mentally shake you out. When you're right you HAVE to hold your winners with conviction in order to come out on top. If you suffer from being anxious when watching the market, decide what you're gonna do, do it, and walk away with orders in.
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amen, dude.

and i second the play on faz....
 
I did both long and short scalps today. No losers. Yes, you can go long in a downtrend.
However, you do need to spend many hours of screen time to work on your edge.
I tested some longer term trades, but I am starting to like scalping just because I don't need to be in the market that long which is nice. It would be nice to be able to turn some of these scalps into longer term trades especially considering how far the market went down today. If you scalp, you do need to have a higher win% than for longer term trades with better risk vs reward. However, the benefit of a high win% is that you may be able to win most days even if you take a larger loss on the days the trades don't work out. Just don't revenge trade on losing days.
 
Quote from startraitor:

adding 85-86, stop over 88, target 77-78 overnight.
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We have 2 consequtive unfilled downgaps. Although overnight we could go into the red, but the 3rd gap protection is on the long side....
 
Quote from princessa:

amen, dude.

and i second the play on faz....
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Nice to see you're still around, if only just lurking princessa...

I may have come across a little strong, but its just a case of the "I'm making alot of money this is so easy, you're all stupid" syndrome which I know we've all had. I've made the same mistakes before and I know where they come from. When you have a macro view on what you think the market will do, don't go and play little 1-min chart patterns. If you are only worrying about what will happen over the next hour, then thats fine... but then don't let what you think X Y or Z events will do to the market next week and let it effect your trading.

Trade the time frame you're analyzing.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

We have 2 consequtive unfilled downgaps. Although overnight we could go into the red, but the 3rd gap protection is on the long side....
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Don't We recently had 2 downside gaps before the market went down to 670. Ouch!!

There's not as much data for downside gaps in a bear market but it would appear that trading upside gaps is a less risky strategy.
 
Quote from Anna K.:

MandelbrotSet, in general I agree with you and would like to thank you for your comments, but I think they would be much more helpful to many new traders if you make them somewhere in the beginning/middle of the day, not at the end, when all the trading is done.
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I have in the past when time/schedule permitted. Today I traded early in the morning and then went out to take care of some business. I don't believe trading all day is necessary ...

Quote from Anna K.:

Another couple of points, if you don't mind helping us out, or point out to your previous comments:
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You've asked me honest questions so I'll try to give you honest answers.

Quote from Anna K.:

1. how do you define/identify a trend day?
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I'm not going to list in an internet forum exactly how I define trend or identify a trend day. But I will say:
1) to pay attention to the indicies (S&P, NASD and Dow), pay attention to the VIX and the Bankers (BKX). Everything pointed downwards today for most of the day from my perspective.

And:
2) I like multiple-timeframes, because they increase the probability that my trade will be a successful one. 15 and 60 minute are two popular ones that I like. For B1S2 he follows the Daily/Weekly/Monthly trends. The individual has to decide how they want to trade based on ... way too much criteria than we have time to go into here, but that basically is the time-frame I like to follow when intra-day trading.
Quote from Anna K.:

2. how do you define a regime/trend change in the middle of the day, like today at 3? would you trade with the new up trend or still with the down trend?
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I might have gotten in on the tail-end of the trade "if" I were still trading for the day. But from my perspective the majority of the day was down and there was no need to continue trading at the end of the day, or take a lower probability trade.

Quote from Anna K.:

3. What about v-shaped reversals?
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If they are supported by all of the market tools that I mentioned to you I would look to get in on a retracement once the trend reversal was confirmed. Otherwise the chances are pretty good that I would have taken my trades early in the day and quit while I was ahead.

Quote from Anna K.:

thank you again.
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You're welcome.

Futures trading ... has a lot of risk. IMHO, one of the best ways (though not the only way) to trade the markets successfully is to control that risk, take trades with a high probability of being successful, and scale-up your position size slowly as you take winning trade after winning trade. The amount of risk in a given trade should never exceed 5% of your total equity. there are some who would say it should never be more than 2%, but you can go up to 5%, provided you trade in a conservative fashion.

Hope that helps.
 
Quote from womblevader:

Don't We recently had 2 downside gaps before the market went down to 670. Ouch!!

There's not as much data for downside gaps in a bear market but it would appear that trading upside gaps is a less risky strategy.
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Thursday was a gap-up that never filled, did not touch daily pivot intraday. Friday was a gap-down, never touched pivot or filled prior gap. Monday was a gap-down, never touched pivot or filled any gaps.

I've been doing this since late 1999 and never recall a three-day sequence in all that time where three consecutive open gap = no pivot touch sessions resulted. For whatever reason(s), some artificial pressures on the market past three days kept them from filling gaps and/or hitting "fair value" pivot points at all.

Just when you thought you'd seen it all...
 
Quote from austinp:

Thursday was a gap-up that never filled, did not touch daily pivot intraday. Friday was a gap-down, never touched pivot or filled prior gap. Monday was a gap-down, never touched pivot or filled any gaps.

I've been doing this since late 1999 and never recall a three-day sequence in all that time where three consecutive open gap = no pivot touch sessions resulted. For whatever reason(s), some artificial pressures on the market past three days kept them from filling gaps and/or hitting "fair value" pivot points at all.
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It's called end of the quarter with too many money managers under-weighted in equities.
 
Quote from opt789:

For those of you who don’t know, Mandlebrotset is JJ or Jimmy Jam. He has over 5k posts with just this new name and he has had several others. If you repond to him he will respond no matter what. Many of the pages of this journal are taken up with him arguing with one person or another.

So I would suggest listen to him if you like his advice or ignore him.
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You mean that Jimmy Jam guy that had nearly 4900 posts before he was forced to give up that screen-name at the end of 2007? And now he has another 5242 since then with another screen-name?

Does he trade for a living or does he just spend all day long posting on ET?
 
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