ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from ammo:

i'm not pickin a bottom but ,spec, didn't you have a rule of thumb about so many down days in a row,statistically a bounce was at high odds?
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I like this trend of thought - there is a statistical element in trading and as you have pointed out there is the possibility of
an upday after a long string of down days. And, the longer we continue to have down days the higher the probability of an up day, or two, or three.
 
i thought it was spec ,on this thread ,maybe a year ago,some thing about 3 down ,one up,and we're way past 3,coulda been somone else.
 
Quote from ammo:

i thought it was spec ,on this thread ,maybe a year ago,some thing about 3 down ,one up,and we're way past 3,coulda been somone else.
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That was me.

Quote from volente_00:

on the first down day, the smart money is selling

on the second down day the semi smart money is selling more

on the third day of the move, the dumb money is puking their long positions and shorting late to the party as the smart money covers


On the fourth day, the dumb money will be forced to cover on the orchestrated spike to distribute more.
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Stat does not bode well in a bull or bear market though where fear and greed overun history.
 
Last time I said it, and now again, 990 is a buy.


startraitor


Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 309


01-21-08 11:44 PM

1260 is a buy.




Quote from startraitor:

Long 990, stop 940, target 1080 or eod Friday.
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I got tagged for a small loss on my bottom-pick attempt today on the Dow. The good news is that tomorrows potential setup on the S&P is looking even better... I'm actually very excited about it. From history, I know that when I get this feeling, the chance of good things happening is high.

If todays lows can break, things will fall into place beautifully. I'm expecting a massive bounce from the 935-955 level on ES. First target ~140 points, second ~200...

The gist is that the market would be making a massive 5-wave wedge right into an area with multiple significant support levels... and has some nice macd divergence on the 60-min. Everything I look for in a trade is present right here. Its time to sack up and aim for the fences.
 
Quote from volente_00:

That was me.




Stat does not bode well in a bull or bear market though where fear and greed overun history.
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thanks vol,i knew i saw it on this thread,it's worked well as a general rule
 
1028 break did not occur yesterday. All that thrust up and they put the brakes on right before 1028. Under 995 still long territory.
 
market wants to test the 970 zone..

the market participants that led to the recent liquidations are not around, you can see it in the tic action.
 
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