stopped out 1341 -2.5
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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stopped out 1341 -2.5
a trend can reverse from lack of either buyers or sellers. When you throw an apple in the air and it runs out of energy....it falls back.
To reverse a trend in the mkts you need a change in sentiment.
think of the bulls running up price to the highs and then fail and fall back to the bottom of the range. then price falls below the bottom of the range. the bulls will throw in the towel and new shorts will enter because the mkt has a change in sentiment about going higher. they give up the bullish ghost and they get short. BOOM
To reverse a trend in the mkts you need a change in sentiment.
think of the bulls running up price to the highs and then fail and fall back to the bottom of the range. then price falls below the bottom of the range. the bulls will throw in the towel and new shorts will enter because the mkt has a change in sentiment about going higher. they give up the bullish ghost and they get short. BOOM
Thanks, but this is not a matter of opinion, but of mathematical certainty.
In a negative expectancy game/system, no money management system exists that can make it a winner over the long haul.
There are winning bets in a negative expectancy game/system, but overall, a negative expectancy system, assuming that it does not become a positive expectancy system while it is being traded, will be a loser. Money management is irrelevant; betting/risking less will simply allow one to play longer. The end result is nevertheless the same--loss.
There is no debate here. B1S2 simply does not know what he is talking about here.
Order changed to GTC.
PS is obviously @ 1336.00 (current bottom, if hit holds).
Thanks for pointing that out.Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Money management helps to create positive expectancy. Proper entries sweeten the pot. A trader who buys 8 times in a row with a small loss each time and then allows the 9th trade, which is a winner to run fully, will most likely be profitable and have positive expectancy. This cannot be argued against. The problem comes in when you throw emotion in. Most traders want to be right more than 1 or 2 times out of 10. They would probably not take the 9th trade. However, that is generally the very time that they should be taking the trade. The only real edge in trading is risk management. Most traders do not focus on this, but rather look towards being correct. This is one of the reasons that so many fail with the number of failures in daytrading perhaps in the 98 to 99 percent range.
The vendor who puts together the system based on this concept is going to be one extraordinarily wealthy individual.
Agree, since we have been using casino games as an example, we can equate a random system to playing blackjack. If you use all the correct rules, the house still has an edge and the correct rules only help you play longer. It is only when you add card counting to the system (ie. better entries) that the system has positive expectancy.
As mentioned by several traders on this journal, don't marry a position, whatever you want to call it.
I have been bearish on ES all morning, however I think there is one more low sub-36-level here.
For any bullish case giving it an hour to see where we are - a case for heading back to 48 level today after a wash.
Bearish for now, open to flip in afternoon.
I have been bearish on ES all morning, however I think there is one more low sub-36-level here.
For any bullish case giving it an hour to see where we are - a case for heading back to 48 level today after a wash.
Bearish for now, open to flip in afternoon.
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