ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Allen3]

From a longer term perspective.

 

[blaster1]

Question for the ES gurus. Since it's Friday, I'm looking to go short for an intraday swing trade (5-10 pts profit target). To play it conservatively, should I wait for the gap on the cash (1397) to get filled first or not necessarily?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Staying long here. I wil exit long position MOC today and reevaluate stop out area if not stopped out prior to closing. Note: I was stopped out of the small trade that I took yesterday at 1394.75 (stopped out at 1383)

 

[kinggyppo]

"Following the market's close Thursday, AIG reported its record $7.8 billion loss, eclipsing the $5.3 billion loss it recorded in the fourth quarter. AIG said credit-market woes, weakness in housing and stock-market volatility "had a substantial adverse effect" on its results.

"The severity of the unrealized valuation losses and decline in value of our investments were beyond our expectations," said AIG Chief Executive Martin Sullivan"

Things that make me chuckle.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from tortoise:

sure, that works, too.

my point here is that the rule of 10 is predicated on the selection of an initial value (in this case 1392) that is random.

so why not pick a value of universally-accepted sigficance (say, yesterday's close) and assign a random reversal variable?

results will be the same.

Because there is a very poor correlation using a random variable that does not yield the same success.



last night the rule failed.


I was trading it with a .25 stop loss instead of a 3 point stop


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.M08.E&v=i









Those 3 am fade trades don't work either.

Quote from volente_00:

I trade ES almost every night. The movement is usually pretty slow so you have to put in more time for fewer points compared to normal hours. Action heats up right around 3 a.m. est when europe opens. Not sure what time zone you are in but you usually can make some decent low risk trades fading the move that happens right at 3 est.

 

[blaster1]

Long 84, stop 83.

Edit: out 86.5 +2.5

 

[volente_00]

Quote from blaster1:

Question for the ES gurus. Since it's Friday, I'm looking to go short for an intraday swing trade (5-10 pts profit target). To play it conservatively, should I wait for the gap on the cash (1397) to get filled first or not necessarily?

I'm still bullish off of 82 r10, I never short with an open gap, or go long with a gap under. but that is just me. If this can hold 80, then maybe a move back 90-92 min.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Staying long here. I wil exit long position MOC today and reevaluate stop out area if not stopped out prior to closing. Note: I was stopped out of the small trade that I took yesterday at 1394.75 (stopped out at 1383)

b1, can you list yopur last 5 day trades, entries, exits,

thanks

 

[volente_00]

87

50% test first hurdle

 

[blaster1]

Quote from volente_00:

I'm still bullish off of 82 r10, I never short with an open gap, or go long with a gap under. but that is just me. If this can hold 80, then maybe a move back 90-92 min.

Thanks volente.