ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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sure, that works, too.
my point here is that the rule of 10 is predicated on the selection of an initial value (in this case 1392) that is random.
so why not pick a value of universally-accepted sigficance (say, yesterday's close) and assign a random reversal variable?
results will be the same.
BigBubba,
does this AH price action mean that the WW depicted in the chart by tortoise has failed?
Do you include the AH in the chart or is just for RTH?
I have seen (several times) on this journal posts Identifying gartley's, and I don't remember one that worked (when the gartley was identified BEFORE the expected move) as opposed to seeing it "after" the move.
I have attached a chart to this post.
The first time I saw a bearish wolfe wave I said to myself, it's a bearish wedge. However, since I do not have the precise rules postulated by Wolfe, I do not know exactly the relationship between the time spent between p1 and p2, p3 p4 because, apparently, a symmetry of time is needed to add validity to the formation.
in the attached chart you can see bearish ww on the daily spx cash. these same points (1,3,5) and (2,4) would be the places that I would draw wedge (bearish wedge) lines.
price point of target of connecting p1 with p4 is 1382-1380 area for today on the cash (based on this count)
see attached chart for crude, uneducated WW count on daily SPX (cash). (WW meaning WolfeWave)
I have another post to make with a different WW count which I will put up in a minute.
One of the reasons I bring this up is because (as I understand it) you have to have an understanding of what the dominant wave is, although I must admit I do not know what the definition of a dominant wave is, but it seems to me that i9f there is a bearish dominant wave in the dailies, then the ony WW's worth looking for in the intraday might be bearish waves. (Believe me, I don't know). I am curious about the WW's because of the price target lines.
The reason I make these observations is because bearish wedge is a favorite pattern, and P3, P5 shows a divergence on the histo (subchart is histo). and a divergence in the histo during a bearish wedge is, well, "bearish" IMO.
there is an alternative WW count on the daily SPX that appears to show much more symmetry (and a more dramatically lower traget line). See post to follow.
Please notice, too, that recent swing high occurred right at/near 50% retracement of the bearish decline from Oct 07 to Jan 08.
does this AH price action mean that the WW depicted in the chart by tortoise has failed?
Do you include the AH in the chart or is just for RTH?
I have seen (several times) on this journal posts Identifying gartley's, and I don't remember one that worked (when the gartley was identified BEFORE the expected move) as opposed to seeing it "after" the move.
I have attached a chart to this post.
The first time I saw a bearish wolfe wave I said to myself, it's a bearish wedge. However, since I do not have the precise rules postulated by Wolfe, I do not know exactly the relationship between the time spent between p1 and p2, p3 p4 because, apparently, a symmetry of time is needed to add validity to the formation.
in the attached chart you can see bearish ww on the daily spx cash. these same points (1,3,5) and (2,4) would be the places that I would draw wedge (bearish wedge) lines.
price point of target of connecting p1 with p4 is 1382-1380 area for today on the cash (based on this count)
see attached chart for crude, uneducated WW count on daily SPX (cash). (WW meaning WolfeWave)
I have another post to make with a different WW count which I will put up in a minute.
One of the reasons I bring this up is because (as I understand it) you have to have an understanding of what the dominant wave is, although I must admit I do not know what the definition of a dominant wave is, but it seems to me that i9f there is a bearish dominant wave in the dailies, then the ony WW's worth looking for in the intraday might be bearish waves. (Believe me, I don't know). I am curious about the WW's because of the price target lines.
The reason I make these observations is because bearish wedge is a favorite pattern, and P3, P5 shows a divergence on the histo (subchart is histo). and a divergence in the histo during a bearish wedge is, well, "bearish" IMO.
there is an alternative WW count on the daily SPX that appears to show much more symmetry (and a more dramatically lower traget line). See post to follow.
Please notice, too, that recent swing high occurred right at/near 50% retracement of the bearish decline from Oct 07 to Jan 08.
OK,
here is the more symmetrical WW count based on the daily SPX (cash).
In case you might not realize it, I don't know whether to have confidence in WW's or not. Technically, I don't really know the rules for symmetry of time and dominant waves either, but since bearish and bullish wedges have treated me well and since the WW appears to be quantifying targets based on a wedge formation, I have some interest.
According the my simplistic understanding of wolfewave, the line generated by connecting pts 1,3 will intersect the line generated by pts 2,4.
that interesection (circled on the chart) is what is called ETA line, Estimated Time of Arrival
the ETA for this chart is roughly the 4th to the 7th trade day in June, and using the pt 1,4 line, the projected price (EPA, Estimated Price at Arrival) at the ETA is near 1346
the 4th to 7th trade day of June would mean June 5th through June 10th.
this info and a billion dollars would make me a millionaire.
here is the more symmetrical WW count based on the daily SPX (cash).
In case you might not realize it, I don't know whether to have confidence in WW's or not. Technically, I don't really know the rules for symmetry of time and dominant waves either, but since bearish and bullish wedges have treated me well and since the WW appears to be quantifying targets based on a wedge formation, I have some interest.
According the my simplistic understanding of wolfewave, the line generated by connecting pts 1,3 will intersect the line generated by pts 2,4.
that interesection (circled on the chart) is what is called ETA line, Estimated Time of Arrival
the ETA for this chart is roughly the 4th to the 7th trade day in June, and using the pt 1,4 line, the projected price (EPA, Estimated Price at Arrival) at the ETA is near 1346
the 4th to 7th trade day of June would mean June 5th through June 10th.
this info and a billion dollars would make me a millionaire.
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