ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Because every day there is the opportunity to capture between 10 and 100 points short term trading and be flat eod without a worry in the world about your position.
I takes me about 1 to 2 minutes daily per market at the end of the day. I spend less than an hour daily not counting my opining here. Then , I spend less than an hour on Sat or Sun reviewing the weekly and monthly charts. I can do that because I spent a lot of time long ago developing the system that I want to use and getting it down to where I know it by heart. I write nothing down.
It's not about the number of trades. It is about the risk to reward ratio. If you are risking 100 points to make 200, then you are going to miss a lot of trading opportunities. Sure you won't stop out as much, but you will miss all of the opportunities to trade the "noise" as b1s2 calls it. Now if you are intraday trading and risking 2 points to make 10 on 10 times as much leverage but still using the same exact risk to tlnw then you don't have to have a very high win rate to make good money.
b1s2, you are a trend follower, the markets long term trend is up, so why do you even take short positions? ith such little leverage, you could just stay long and dollar cost average and spend even less time.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Actually , the more passes he throws, the more chances to throw a bad one. If he throws just a few and they are well placed and big gainers, they win also. By the way, I don't need ahigh percentage to be profitable. I just need the winners to be bigger than the losers.
Check the completion statistics of hail mary passes versus 10 yard passes. Also check the statistics on interceptions of long thrown passes versus short thrown. By only throwing a few, the qb would be betting the outcome of the game on luck instead of statistical skill.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Actually , the more passes he throws, the more chances to throw a bad one. If he throws just a few and they are well placed and big gainers, they win also. By the way, I don't need ahigh percentage to be profitable. I just need the winners to be bigger than the losers.
That's true whether you run the ball or throw the ball. The more you do either one the chances of something bad happening increases. The point is mute. The issue is whether one has an edge. Even with an edge you won't always win.
Homeruns Buy1Sell2--what is it and when did you hit it?
I was curious about the bigger moves so here are the last 4 years:
2004: 1 -- 150
2005: 2 -- 110
2006: 1 --100 and 1 -- 200
2007: 1 -- 160 and 3 -- 200
So statistics is not on your side, if you are trying to take 250+ points moves. The last such a big move was between 2001 summer and 2001 mid-September, but that included 9/11 and was 360 points but bounced back very quickly in 2 weeks.
I am not against your style, I just don't like the exits. Even if you just want to look at the charts once a day, why not take a decent gain and reload a few days later when the market bounced? As others noted here, the market seldom goes down or up in a straight fashion.
And worrying about commission is ridiculous. Making 5-10 trades a month won't kill your profits. Also you trade like 6-8 different other markets, so you obviously spend more screentime than the few minutes evaluating the ES chart....
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