supposedly the third week of January is critical since, financials start reporting, I would anticipate a pseudo rally before the floor is taken out next year.
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supposedly the third week of January is critical since, financials start reporting, I would anticipate a pseudo rally before the floor is taken out next year.
Downside 1465
Upside 1500-1510
All cash of course
Upside 1500-1510
All cash of course
in the prior 30min chart I posted, the tall vertical rectangles in the right side of the chart were move measures based on bodies of candlesticks.
In the prior chart, the standard neckline break was used as the starting point for a projection of downside risk.
In this chart I treated the first leg down from the highs as the first leg of a measured move, and placed the top of the box of the second vertical rectangle at the high of the counter trend move (which is the high of the right shoulder at 1501.50).
the measured move and the gap intersect at 1452.50-1449.00.
In the prior chart, the standard neckline break was used as the starting point for a projection of downside risk.
In this chart I treated the first leg down from the highs as the first leg of a measured move, and placed the top of the box of the second vertical rectangle at the high of the counter trend move (which is the high of the right shoulder at 1501.50).
the measured move and the gap intersect at 1452.50-1449.00.
Very nice work, vertigo!
Long SDS (double-short S&P 500 ETF) and QID (double-short NASDAQ ETF) just before the close Friday to hold through the weekend and beyond for a swing trade. Did not go long TWM (double-short Russell 2000 ETF) because of unreasonable bid/ask spreads, but might do so next week.
Long SDS (double-short S&P 500 ETF) and QID (double-short NASDAQ ETF) just before the close Friday to hold through the weekend and beyond for a swing trade. Did not go long TWM (double-short Russell 2000 ETF) because of unreasonable bid/ask spreads, but might do so next week.
thats pretty much what I saw in the daily spx as well...I really like your "GAPOLA"..it took a few minutes to figure it out
FWIW my understanding when EVERYONE sees the same pattern it often negates it..food for thought
From Bloomberg:
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he favors spending U.S. government money to bail out mortgage borrowers who risk losing their homes because they can't make payments.... cash bailouts, while creating a larger budget deficit, have the advantage of helping homeowners without distorting property prices or interest-rates on mortgages."
For those of you predicting 1200 on the S&P (at some point in the future), are you sure you are taking into account the intentional propping up of the market by the Administration, the Treasury, and the Fed which will surely continue in the future?
Bernanke specifically chose to lower rates between the last day of trading index options and the settlement on Friday morning in Aug. to make the market gap up even more than would be expected, and he further chose to have someone call CNBC after the markets closed Tuesday to say they were going to do more to add liquidity so the after hours futures markets would be easier to send higher.
I didn't say it, but I am using every lift as a gift to look for good shorts. At the same time I am preparing for more and more government intervention. As someone with a degree in economics this intervention does not in any way sit well with me, but it must be taken into account when trading. My real fear is that the intervention does succeed in artificially sending the market higher. What happens if the government Put option on the market (which everyone will start to count on) doesn't work at some point in the future?
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he favors spending U.S. government money to bail out mortgage borrowers who risk losing their homes because they can't make payments.... cash bailouts, while creating a larger budget deficit, have the advantage of helping homeowners without distorting property prices or interest-rates on mortgages."
For those of you predicting 1200 on the S&P (at some point in the future), are you sure you are taking into account the intentional propping up of the market by the Administration, the Treasury, and the Fed which will surely continue in the future?
Bernanke specifically chose to lower rates between the last day of trading index options and the settlement on Friday morning in Aug. to make the market gap up even more than would be expected, and he further chose to have someone call CNBC after the markets closed Tuesday to say they were going to do more to add liquidity so the after hours futures markets would be easier to send higher.
I didn't say it, but I am using every lift as a gift to look for good shorts. At the same time I am preparing for more and more government intervention. As someone with a degree in economics this intervention does not in any way sit well with me, but it must be taken into account when trading. My real fear is that the intervention does succeed in artificially sending the market higher. What happens if the government Put option on the market (which everyone will start to count on) doesn't work at some point in the future?
Hi Opt789, thanks for your insights. You make a very good point and probably very correct.
Intervention can me make any technical and fundamental analysis obsolete.
(I hope those new traders reading understand that regardless of how good a trade or idea seems to a trader, one has to be able to flip the trade/idea around in a moments notice if necessary. Nothing is ever set on stone in this business.)
Technically speaking we should see 1200 in the S&P before the end of the first quarter, but and that is a big butt, the Fed can change that.
The truth is that 'middle class' home financing is out of business, and simply adding money to the system is not going to bring them back to live. So I see it more like throwing good money after bad. What they are doing is just not good long term, anyway you want to see it. If a certain market is screaming correction, artificially keeping from correcting, can only produce a crash at a later point imo...
Can the market still rally from here and go nuts like it did at the end of the last decade, of course, anything is possible. With so much money being pumped into the system and no other place to go (real estate/and treasuries for now) the only other place it can go is the stock and commodities markets...
I was stopped out from the long GBL and after looking at charts this weekend noticed that the correct long-term position was going short US with a 110 target...(unfortunately the gap seen on TYX Dec 6 is very discomforting to me and what keep me looking long, so I will sit this one out for now). Would feel much better if this gap fills sometime this month though but with the Fed helping out..
Someone should invent the FED money pimp indicator.....
For now I am keeping my short ES position, but given the change of direction on treasuries I am not so sure we will be able to take out 1400 as soon as I thought....in that case I'll be going back to the drawing board....
Pretty much all index markets across the world show we are at the beginning of a minimum 3-6 month correction. When will this correction start, if it's not already on it's way?
We should probably ask Bernanke and his colleagues, when they think they will run out of paper...
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