ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from opt789:

From Bloomberg:
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he favors spending U.S. government money to bail out mortgage borrowers who risk losing their homes because they can't make payments.... cash bailouts, while creating a larger budget deficit, have the advantage of helping homeowners without distorting property prices or interest-rates on mortgages."

For those of you predicting 1200 on the S&P (at some point in the future), are you sure you are taking into account the intentional propping up of the market by the Administration, the Treasury, and the Fed which will surely continue in the future?

Bernanke specifically chose to lower rates between the last day of trading index options and the settlement on Friday morning in Aug. to make the market gap up even more than would be expected, and he further chose to have someone call CNBC after the markets closed Tuesday to say they were going to do more to add liquidity so the after hours futures markets would be easier to send higher.

I didn't say it, but I am using every lift as a gift to look for good shorts. At the same time I am preparing for more and more government intervention. As someone with a degree in economics this intervention does not in any way sit well with me, but it must be taken into account when trading. My real fear is that the intervention does succeed in artificially sending the market higher. What happens if the government Put option on the market (which everyone will start to count on) doesn't work at some point in the future?

with the amount of stimulus, and political landscape changeout, the market may avert a downturn, since significant bets against the market wont be made till the political landscape can be projected out.

the ultimate basis for the bet will be whether profit potential is still intact. Projecting out, technology companies still will be in demand secondary to world buildout.

I'm still seeing a lot of sales in housing, the houses are still being sold, in the very high end market they might be building up secondary to 'flippers bailing'...
 
This mrkt has run the last decade maybe 15 yrs on the housing boom,and that was a saviour then,take that away and stick a couple 100 million unsold new and unsold foreclosed out there and its like katrina in N.O.,ITS GONNA TAKE A LONG TIME TO CLEAN UP,the gov knows that and is throwing sandbags at it,but its unknown how big this thing is,even if we don't go under,we're definitely not going up from here.. we may go sideways to up til thurs for expiration,but in this last weeks volatility,those option positions should have been shaken down in size
 
Quote from volente_00:

you will eventually come out on top when we retrace to 1458.

Size of the contract means very little when you understand the correlation and arbitrage.


Are we there yet ?



After crunching the numbers 1458 is still very probable. Is the r:r worth it for a short ? Maybe for a gambler.
 
Quote from mbusch:

Very nice work, vertigo!

Long SDS (double-short S&P 500 ETF) and QID (double-short NASDAQ ETF) just before the close Friday to hold through the weekend and beyond for a swing trade. Did not go long TWM (double-short Russell 2000 ETF) because of unreasonable bid/ask spreads, but might do so next week.

i also bot sds on wednesday, added to position on thursday, took some off the table friday ( banking profits) and letting the rest roll....
 
Quote from princessa:

i also bot sds on wednesday, added to position on thursday, took some off the table friday ( banking profits) and letting the rest roll....
Nice work. Hope I'm not too late to the party.
 
Quote from RichardRimes:



FWIW my understanding when EVERYONE sees the same pattern it often negates it..food for thought

ImE that is not entirely so. Shakeouts/squeezes yes.

What happens to me very frequently is that I might trade a bullish pattern off 3 minute chart and if I don't adjust position size taking into account wider stop, then I keep stop same as if it were a stop on 1 minute chart's pattern. Pre-determined range expansion analyses allow me to determine potential reward. So, to cut long story short, I get shaken out 1-3 times and IF entry signal is still there I would get a better entry 3rd time round. (At this point T28 decides to post some &^%$)

Hence I am of an opinion that a more obvious pattern is often headfaked rather than negated altogether.
 
Quote from apex82:

woudlnt be surprised to see a down 5% day next week. Im holding equities short over the weekend.. use me as a contrarian indicator.. .but this seriously looks nasty... I would be careful going long here.. If we get a reversal on the 60min chart I will know I am wrong.

When looking for a major move its important to look at the other indices to see if they confirm your outlook. You can see the er2 is in a perfect position to compliment the ES bearish outlook. All it takes is a reversal and on the hourly chart or the 81 minute and I know that the odds are severely reduced.
 

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