ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Great chart on wave count, elovemer.
for ES, retrace, tag 1498-1492 area, then like santa sez up up and away, uh, well, at least a test of 1525, more likely an extension to test 1536-1547.
I'll let market show me what it wants to do, but this is possible scenario can unfold.
there is no shame in being wrong, just don't be wrong for long.
 
Quote from elovemer:

.... this goes out to all my dead homies....
.... who were killed by trend change....
.... spx possible wave count.....
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This is weekly histogram patterns on 3 majors. On short term charts I would trade that from long side without any second thought. Will that lead to monthly charts being negated? Crystal ball anyone? LOL

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1707818>
 

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Quote from elovemer:

.... spx possible wave count.....
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Your wedge analysis is brilliant. I do have a question about your wave analysis, however. Starting with the August swing low, your chart seems to show two consecutive five-wave-up sequences without an intervening three-wave-down sequence. What's with that?
 
I will be doing a dispersion trade on ES. :)

Almost every FED meeting the market has rallied significantly.. capturing 30-40 ES points.

You would think the MM's would wise up now..and take advantage of the prepositioning by some large fundies, to break it in the opposing direction.
 
notice bonds have some upside after the significant retracement... bond boys...might look to rally bonds on FED announcement, will correlate with down equities.
 
Quote from brotherben:

"would" says tentative on the trade. if we believe in trade enter don't freeze up.
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not tentative. that sentence meant - IF it was on 1-10 minute chart, THEN I would... Grammatically that is correct I believe :)
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

not tentative. that sentence meant - IF it was on 1-10 minute chart, THEN I would... Grammatically that is correct I believe :)
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You are grammatically correct, and even syntactically correct, but I disagree with you semantically. :)

For one thing, the higher lows in the weekly MACDs are not confirmed by RSI divergence. Indeed, the corresponding RSIs are not oversold. Nor are the stochastics at an extreme value, but closer to mid-range.

In fact, if you back up a little further than what your graphic displays, you'll see that not only do the MACDs show higher lows, but they also show lower highs. In other words, their range is contracting. My analysis suggests that they are simply showing reduced price volatility, rather than indicating any bullish (or bearish) bias.

The MACD histogram is a useful tool, but I do not believe it can be used in isolation. I use MACD histogram divergence as an entry signal only when it is confirmed by some combination of RSI divergence, extreme stochastics, proximity to established support or resistance levels, trendlines, fibs, MAs, etc. IMHO it takes a preponderance of the evidence (or confluence, if you prefer) to signal a low-risk entry. The weekly charts are not presently offering such a confluence.
 
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