ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I've been scratching my head trying to figure out exactly WHAT could propel the ES/SPX to higher highs to the end of the year. Financials? which I believe used to make up 20%....nah... on life support. OIH and the oils? another big % of the SPX...nah...they've had their run. Retail? uhmmm don't think so. Leaving us with Tech...possibly.

When 3 out of 4 major contributors of the SPX isn't looking so hot I believe the headwinds will be too strong for a big run to the EOY. Smart money I "think" has or is looking to take it off the table to preserve some gains for 2007.
 
Quote from opt789:

Apex,
Thanks for the additional info.

Spectre (or anyone else),
Don't you think it will be very hard for the market to continue to new highs with most people in the country unable to sell their houses? I am seeing more and more houses in relatively upscale neighborhoods for sale than ever before, and nothing is selling. I know a lot of people who are the opposite of sub-prime who are starting to get pretty worried. Here is an interesting perspective for anyone interested:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/2007/12/straight-talk-on-the-mortgage-mess-from-an-insider/
More...

everything has limited timespan... the market looks forward 6months..

but from now and till 2nd quarter of next year..market will consolidate around large bar ATR's..

probably..1520-1420..

the economy is a slow motion car wreck, thats why the market is swinging in such large bars. Since its happening in slow motion, market forces can shift the sentiment.
 
dow,russell,and spus all touching resistance line,9/10 and 10/22 lows are line for dow,,i think we turn down sunday nite.,first dow stop 13520 area,spu 1494 and 83,russell 775 and 761,naz 2100 then 2088,buy the rumor sell the news
 
Quote from opt789:

Apex,
Thanks for the additional info.

Spectre (or anyone else),
Don't you think it will be very hard for the market to continue to new highs with most people in the country unable to sell their houses? I am seeing more and more houses in relatively upscale neighborhoods for sale than ever before, and nothing is selling. I know a lot of people who are the opposite of sub-prime who are starting to get pretty worried. Here is an interesting perspective for anyone interested:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/2007/12/straight-talk-on-the-mortgage-mess-from-an-insider/
More...

I do not think someone not being able to sell their upscale house is going to stop them from buying stocks for their IRA or personal accounts and do not forget a lot of upward buying can be from mutual funds and institutions whose buying is not directly affected by personal home sales since they are moving institutional money or in an open or closed end fund. Upscale people are not suffering in significant numbers on sub-prime mortgages although maybe those with houses on the markets are having to wait longer to sell or lower prices a bit.

I am sure those people are worried since a lot of wealth is tied up in your home but there is a lot of cash still available to go long (or short). I think it is housing effect on the economy that affects buying and selling like this more so than someone whose house is not moving not going out to buy. Even those people have IRAs and 401(K) which are out there buying into the year end.
 
there is a theory that if we enter a shaky economic period ,and the dollar begins to bounce ,which has started,that other less stable countries moneys would be parked,or invested here, the worlds safest banking system, by investing in us companies.....im no economist ,but it makes sense
 
Quote from optioncoach:

I do not think someone not being able to sell their upscale house is going to stop them from buying stocks for their IRA or personal accounts and do not forget a lot of upward buying can be from mutual funds and institutions whose buying is not directly affected by personal home sales since they are moving institutional money or in an open or closed end fund. Upscale people are not suffering in significant numbers on sub-prime mortgages although maybe those with houses on the markets are having to wait longer to sell or lower prices a bit.

I am sure those people are worried since a lot of wealth is tied up in your home but there is a lot of cash still available to go long (or short). I think it is housing effect on the economy that affects buying and selling like this more so than someone whose house is not moving not going out to buy. Even those people have IRAs and 401(K) which are out there buying into the year end.
More...

I'm not sure. Look at it this way. A very large number of people including those with expensive homes have been using them as ATM's and refinanced for any number of things. No longer can they do this as the value of their asset is now going down...at least for the next year or so. Will they now reduce their contribution to their 401K (IRA)or savings to send the kids to college, buy the car etc that home equity may have been used for...OR will they just buy less, thereby putting a dampener on the growth in the economy. Either way not really sure it looks good in the near future. You are right that there is money looking for a home in savings & mutual funds and that is certainly what will keep the market from tanking...I hope...I think :D
 
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