ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from fka:



also long DEC AAPL Calls

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DEC07 Calls Strike 195

AAPL chart looks like the mother off all uptrends. Retraced, quick consolidation+bullflag.

It´s more like a position trade for the next 2 weeks, expecting 50-100% return.

Expecting AAPL to rise to 200
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Previous NQ trade closed with -1 pt.

Finally we made the breakout.

Selling 1/2 of the AAPL Calls with 70% profit on a new ATH for Apple. Quicker than expected...
 
Quote from atticus:

You're deficient, but lucky for you, nobody of intellect can make a case for PINNING, which is what you're attempting. "MAX PAIN" concepts are completely out of touch with reality in a 2007 market. The cash markets are simply too liquid. Interest rates and microstructure play a significant role as well, but talking to you is akin to teaching Ito's lemma to a Capuchin monkey.

The market broke below prior spot support at 150, not 152 or 153. It's clear that you can't read a chart any better.

My [absolute] last on the subject. You're killfiled.
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Then why do you keep responding ?


If you don't like my edge then put me on ignore but quit making up lies about pinning when I have never said anything about it. If you are too freaking close minded to understand a basic concept such as correlation between markets then you will never get it. Have a good weekend.
 
market had all the ingredients..to rally significantly today..

:) engineered...the MM's that bought at the low end of the ATR low 1400's, selling up top..

I posted that selling would come in above 1510..

a possible goal is to coil the market..
 

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Quote from apex82:

market has a high probability of rallying into the job report and then falling the week after.. do the stats. Its pretty amazing how accurate this is.
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Apex,
Could you expand on this a little? Maybe I am missing the point but I don't see what you are seeing.
NFP : next week's SPX
1/5/07 +21.02
2/2/07 -10.33
3/9/07 -15.89
4/6/07 + 9.09
5/4/07 + 0.23
6/1/07 -28.67
7/6/07 +22.06
8/3/07 +20.58
9/7/07 +30.70
10/5/07 + 4.21
11/2/07 -55.95
Looks like 7 up and 4 down, which has an upward bias but not really statistically significant.
 
Quote from opt789:

Apex,
Could you expand on this a little? Maybe I am missing the point but I don't see what you are seeing.
NFP : next week's SPX
1/5/07 +21.02
2/2/07 -10.33
3/9/07 -15.89
4/6/07 + 9.09
5/4/07 + 0.23
6/1/07 -28.67
7/6/07 +22.06
8/3/07 +20.58
9/7/07 +30.70
10/5/07 + 4.21
11/2/07 -55.95
Looks like 7 up and 4 down, which has an upward bias but not really statistically significant.
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nice stats.. but this pattern is a lot more prevalent if you take the past 3-4 years. There is also the rise starting the week of or before the nonfarm which is a very high probability. The following week may have closed up but check out the following couple days after the report was released. Its one of the best edges I have seen with any reports.
 
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