ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Rotten day. Plagued with distractions at strategic moments. Did great with my IRA position trade (short taken at EOD yesterday), but took a modest hit on my daytrading account. Damn phone kept ringing off the hook and I took my eye off the ball.

Lesson learned. Tomorrow, phone is off the hook. :)
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Well, ImO MACD histogram points to direction, not pennant itself as continuation.

on 10 min chart there are 3 declining histogram peaks (failure swings)

Daily pivot an obvious target objective if price breakdown of pennant.
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Never actually reached apex, but still enough momentum to finally break support and off to intraday pivotal. Actually price did try to breakdown earlier, but was only good for 4-5 points, then pennant was adjusted with slightly new levels, but 10 minute histogram remained declining, which was even better seen on attached 5 minute chart.

ImO pennants are at best when actual apex's been reached, then it's a lot easier to gain control based on 1 minute histogram behaviour.

<img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1679520>
 

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Quote from apex82:

im still short but am willing to take a loss on this if it continues higher... I was looking for at least a small retrace to lighten up but havent got one.... what a fucking move into the close... I hate playing AH.. made up most of the drawdown from yesterday but this trade could sting a bit.
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All my charts from Monthly to hourly look bearish as hell. (15min and down look indeterminate.) Next significant move should be at least down to the low 50s, maybe low 40s, and my hourly chart shows a plausible measured move target at 1412.50. Time is surely on the side of the shorts.

Of course, that doesn't preclude an AH pop that hits your stop to the tick before retreating. :(
 
Quote from candles:

well..Im hoping we get a good drop into the close. I haven't got any money on it though.

I developed a system and have been testing it without money for 2 months. I took it live 12 days ago and have made nearly 400 pips. I dont wanna push my luckand am taking all my money out of my account tonight.

For it to be an amazing week we need to get down to 1476.0! not looking good i must say, lol. (currently 1485.5)
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Wow!! Dropped the 10 handles you were looking for within 40 odd minutes of your post. That was an amazing call.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Never actually reached apex, but still enough momentum to finally break support and off to intraday pivotal. Actually price did try to breakdown earlier, but was only good for 4-5 points, then pennant was adjusted with slightly new levels, but 10 minute histogram remained declining, which was even better seen on attached 5 minute chart.

ImO pennants are at best when actual apex's been reached, then it's a lot easier to gain control based on 1 minute histogram behaviour.

<img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1679520>
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Amazing, dropped right to that pivot like a stone.
 
Today was a BULL HOOK day. 9:30 open higher than previous close, narrower range than previous day, and lower close.

On average, bull hook days are resolved to the upside. In addition, I can't see the powers that be ending the week on a negative note--next week will be a light trading week anyway, because of Turkey day.

Going long overnight, looking for 1520's in about a week. A position trade, and will be willing to take 20 points of heat.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

On average, bull hook days are resolved to the upside.
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What about on average during a multi-year secular bear market? Does that staistic still hold? :confused:

On average, markets go up more often than they go down. But there are periods when that's not true. and this (I believe) is one of them. The last one was seven years ago.
 
Quote from mbusch:

What about on average during a multi-year secular bear market? Does that staistic still hold? :confused:

On average, markets go up more often than they go down. But there are periods when that's not true. and this (I believe) is one of them. The last one was seven years ago.
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No one knows if we are in a "multi-year secular bear market." Remember, the indices made new highs a matter of WEEKS ago. We may simply be in congestion, with nice wide ranges.

Position trades lasting a couple of days can work in ANY market, bear or bull. With my systems, they often work better in bear markets, which are filled with spectacular rallies, which are then ultimately sold.

Besides, if I am wrong, I'll simply exit the position and wait for another opportunity. :-)
 
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