I couldn't agree with you more about that. No one knows what the market will do in the next 30 minutes, either. But traders have to develop a belief system about such unknowables, based on patterns and measures and probabilities. Our belief systems are not the same as reality -- indeed they are a gross oversimplification of reality -- but they're all we have, and without them we could not trade.
I don't know whether or not we're in a multi-year secular bear market, but my belief system suggests that we are and I must trade on that assumption. Your belief system is undoubtedly different. In fact, without a diversity of belief systems, we could not trade. It is the diversity that creates the market.
