ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spooz Top]

Quote from JimmyJam:

If you look at the other indices, NQ has made new highs while ES and YM look like they're in the bottoming process.

Good trading,

JJ

agreed......if we close in the current range...i`d be looking to gap one way or the other tomorrow....most likely up.....if down,i expect buyers to step right up & get bid.

 

[mbusch]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I will make a call here just for fun. I see 1572 at the close.

Tell 'em to hurry, will you? They're running out of time.

 

[tortoise]

Quote from mbusch:

Tell 'em to hurry, will you? They're running out of time.

i see dead people

 

[Spooz Top]

Quote from JimmyJam:

If you look at the other indices, NQ has made new highs while ES and YM look like they're in the bottoming process.

Good trading,

JJ

fwiw.....by the 3 amigos ,i`m referring to dow (cash) YM & ES

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from mbusch:

Tell 'em to hurry, will you? They're running out of time.

You should be able to see now one of the reaons why I hold positions overnight. I am right more than half the time I would say on direction, but fairly poor on the exact timing of such.

Plenty of time yet today though to rally.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

You should be able to see now one of the reaons why I hold positions overnight. I am right more than half the time I would say on direction, but fairly poor on the exact timing of such.

Plenty of time yet today though to rally.

It makes perfect sense for position traders to hold overnight. That's where the gains are to be found!

The long-term upward bias of the market turns to dust if one does not hold overnight.

I did a study of Google stock a few months back, and determined that more than 100% of the gains in the stock (from IPO to present) come from overnight holding.

By buying at the close and selling at the open (i.e "holding overnight"), a trader would average a dollar a day per share since the IPO.

But if one bought the open and sold at the close, the returns would be negative.

The same applies to the S&P, btw.

 

[Allen3]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I say--Never risk more than 2 percent of liquid net worth on any trade/idea.

[/B]

Respectfully. Could you explain that with a numerical example? What do you consider liquid net worth? Lets say you have $100,000. How do you play that with ES contracts? Do you consider the worth of the contract at the time or the breaking point of your mental (this trade just isn't going to work I'm wrong!) stop the risk for the trade? What is the least amount of liquid net worth you would see as viable to trade ES with?

Sorry that's a lot of questions, but I would like to understand what you are advising better.

I would be grateful if you could share your experience.

JIM

 

[Allen3]

Quote from smilingsynic:

It makes perfect sense for position traders to hold overnight. That's where the gains are to be found!

The long-term upward bias of the market turns to dust if one does not hold overnight.

The same applies to the S&P, btw.

I read that in a book recently. He said it made a world of difference once he ran the stats, implemented the overnight hold and got used to the idea of sleeping while the market worked. Although some people I've talked to can't sleep with a trade on. So I guess it all comes down to the personality. One man on a mountain will look at the sky and know thier still on solid ground, some will just see how far down the valley is. Valley guys seem to always like to short and scalp.

 

[tommymoose]

Quote from Allen3:

Respectfully. Could you explain that with a numerical example? What do you consider liquid net worth? Lets say you have $100,000. How do you play that with ES contracts? Do you consider the worth of the contract at the time or the breaking point of your mental (this trade just isn't going to work I'm wrong!) stop the risk for the trade? What is the least amount of liquid net worth you would see as viable to trade ES with?

Sorry that's a lot of questions, but I would like to understand what you are advising better.

I would be grateful if you could share your experience.

JIM

I'm pretty sure what he means is this -

If you have 100k and you only risk 2% per trade setup, your stop-out point must not take more than $2k from you. So if you have a trade setup where an appropriate stop is only 2 points away, you can leverage up and trade 20 contracts. However, if your trade setup calls for a stop that is 20 points away, you should only trade 2 contracts.

So the size you trade should depend on the distance your stop is from entry. Hope that helped

 

[JSSPMK]

Buy1Sell2, considering your expertise in pattern recognition on longer term charts, could you voice your opinion on this weekly ES if possible. There is an IF factor attached to it, so if this was to take place and histogram would form as annotated, would you scratch your head and think about it or would you not pay attention to it as a cause of further retracement? ImO, IF this was to happen, then pattern would be classed as a divergence, BUT there was a solid retracement back in August, so I would not consider this to be a divergence as such, even though it does appear to look like one. Thanks.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1634695>