ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from JSSPMK:

Buy1Sell2, considering your expertise in pattern recognition on longer term charts, could you voice your opinion on this weekly ES if possible. There is an IF factor attached to it, so if this was to take place and histogram would form as annotated, would you scratch your head and think about it or would you not pay attention to it as a cause of further retracement? ImO, IF this was to happen, then pattern would be classed as a divergence, BUT there was a solid retracement back in August, so I would not consider this to be a divergence as such, even though it does appear to look like one. Thanks.

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Negative divergence was there and already ran it's course (correction/retracement).

I did get out , but did not go short. Going short would have made me money, but my better option would be to go to the sidelines and get long again elsewhere.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

It makes perfect sense for position traders to hold overnight. That's where the gains are to be found!
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Very good observations! I had not done a mathematical study except for the fact that my account does much better when holding than trying to pick the tops and bottoms of the intraday. That could of course be my lack of ability, but I think the real reason is less activity and a hold overnight (perhaps many nights)strategy. It puts you in the big winners that you need.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

I'm pretty sure what he means is this -

If you have 100k and you only risk 2% per trade setup, your stop-out point must not take more than $2k from you. So if you have a trade setup where an appropriate stop is only 2 points away, you can leverage up and trade 20 contracts. However, if your trade setup calls for a stop that is 20 points away, you should only trade 2 contracts.

So the size you trade should depend on the distance your stop is from entry. Hope that helped :)
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This is basically it Allen. I believe stop, whether mental or hard, should be chart based and not an abitrary 2 points. I believe it should then be related to your total liquid net worth and adjusted so that you are not risking more than 2 percent of TLNW. ---These are my beliefs, I am advising no one---
 
I see no obvious reason to get out of my long NQ and ES positions here. The possibility exists of a short term reversal in the mid to upper 1570's , but that's too far ahead. I will stay with my upward trend bias here and hold these positions for perceived (by me) much higher prices. Quick reminder: I entered the initial ES position at 1537.75 as a demonstration to show why trading with the trend makes it difficult to lose large sums of money . The only criteria used was that the trend was up, so I bought. Position moved against me by 19 points or so, but is now 30 points in the black. It is my firm belief that trading with bias is more easily profitable than trading without bias. :)

By the way, I have no problem giving the gains back in favor of being less active and going for the bigger winner. If I see a valid sell signal, I will get out at that time. The idea is that I will see the sell signal while prices are still up.--Doesn't always happen--
 
I am short here from 1568.00 with a very close stop. Countertend scalp trade, not expecting any homeruns here, just trying to pick up some pocket money while waiting for a good place to enter long.
 
Quote from mbusch:

I am short here from 1568.00 with a very close stop. Countertend scalp trade, not expecting any homeruns here, just trying to pick up some pocket money while waiting for a good place to enter long.
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This is where we differ of course. While the short intraday charts suggest downside, I view them as pullback and just stay long or stay on the sidelines. Most traders go ahead and try to grab a short here and there to bolster the account. Sometimes that bolstering can lead to a huge downmove. --Could be this time, you never know--. Most traders who attempt to raise their account by grabbing a few points on countertrend do not end up participating in the huge downmove since they were just trying to grab a bit of cash. My preference though is to be patient and only trade from one side. I am willing to forego the potential profits from the other side in favor of being able to trade from the side that I believe affords me the best opportunity at an extended gain. I am not always right, but when I am , I reap benefits that more than make up for the short term bolstering.
 
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