ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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If I was adding to my position or entering a new trade, I would be long here at 1565.25
I say--Never risk more than 2 percent of liquid net worth on any trade/idea.
I still believe that 1580 will be upon us. I have no idea what day, that is why I don't make a specific date call. It would not surpise me however to see it today or tomorrow.
I say--Never risk more than 2 percent of liquid net worth on any trade/idea.
I still believe that 1580 will be upon us. I have no idea what day, that is why I don't make a specific date call. It would not surpise me however to see it today or tomorrow.
It is a natural human characteristic to learn from our mistakes. In trading, the natural response to taking a loss in a trade is to get busy and fix the problem that caused the loss so it does not occur next time. Each of these "fixes" introduces an artificial constraint or variable. As these fixes accumulate, the system or method becomes more and more complex and at the same time becomes curve fit to the recent past.
The correct response to a loss is to understand and accept losses are an inherent part of trading. No system is 100% correct 100% of the time, therefore losses will occur.
The trader that tries to follow B1S2's simple trend following method will encounter this dilemma. Thus it is the response of the trader to the losses B1S2's method will produce in the future that will determine how quickly they lose faith in the method and abandon it in search of a better method (ie. one that does not have losses). This is the basic reason why the customer turnover rate in proven successful fee-based trading services is so high.
Thank you Sir... your point on the use (or abuse) of the breakeven stop loss is certainly well taken.
It is not uncommon to find traders lifting a stop loss order up to breakeven prematurely, and thus right into the zone of market noise where the probability of that stop being hit is much higher.
A natural (and time proven) solution to this "bad habit" is the use of a trailing stop ...after all, as the trend develops a properly placed trailing stop (ie. outside the noise) will naturally move through the breakeven price level at the appropriate time.
Which brings up the issue: What's the best way to determine the "distance" for a trailing stop to keep it out of the noise but still afford maximum protection? Is there some rule of thumb -- say involving multiples of average true range or standard deviations from a MA or Keltner channels or somesuch -- that provides a good place for a trailing stop? Or alternatively, do you simply watch the sawtooth-like price action and rachet the trailing stop up some small distance from the apex of each retracement as the trend unfolds?
I tend to do it this way. The downside of this of course is that any noise outside of the main trend will stop you out. Sometimes it seems deliberately done to shake out these stops before taking it higher/lower.
BTW looking for ~59.50 on ES for a long here
:edit: nevermind, that zone got ruined... edit again - i still like it just on a dif timeframe... very close here
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