ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Lucrum]

Quote from wareco:

What is the ES all-time high? I show it as 1574.25 on 3/30/00. Is that correct?

I'm showing the same, although for the longer term charts I wonder if it wouldn't be better to look at the cash index because of potential differences in futures premiums.

$SPX intraday high was 1552.87 which was exceeded Friday.

 

[storm121]

dramatic chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=0

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

There is a reason why the S&P can pop back up that fast since mid-2005.

As I recall, S&P changed its calculation method of the S&P index in mid-2005 to a modified version of the true capitalization weighting method. That means, it is going to weight each stock based on flow, not the true # of outstanding shares.

The old high in S&P 500 has to be recaculated using the new method to give a proper comparison.

What I implied is that if volatility is going to increase like the 98-00 blow off phrase, and that we are at the starting point only (200 points S&P higher), the new calculation method can have an interesting effect that magnify/dampen the volatility.

 

[dmartin]

I am now fading this move in the SPX. Why, the resistance in this area has been so great over the past few years it’s likely to continue.
The SPX topped out in March of 2000 at 1552.87. From there, it took about 2½ years for the SPX to lose about half of its value. And from there, it took almost twice as long -- almost five years -- for the SPX to scratch and claw its way back up to the highs, topping out about 3 points above the prior high in July of this year. That was the first retracement.

Now we have a second retracement from the August 16 low back to a few points above. This is a significant level in the SPX and with the McClellan Oscillator being so overbought this is the time to take profits and go short.

DMartin

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from elovemer:

...optioncoach...... are you still strategizing a down move with options play ?
...... is this chart the ascending wedge you were speaking of ?

.... B1S2 ... do you see an ascending wedge pattern at play here on the daily chart ?

thanks

Not certain what an ascending wedge is. I have never paid attention to those kinds of patterns, although I do know what bull and bear flags are and they are useable.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from mbusch:



However, on a Friday before a three-day weekend, I'm skeptical.

Globex open. CME floor closed.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from saxon22:

II am more in the positive territory with my trades and no longer get stopped out .... as much.

I didn't think that you got stopped out ever before--you just continued adding positions as it went against you--

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from dmartin:

That's exactly what I mean Buy1Sell2. There is no basis for what you call a non-call (1580?). The market could just have easily tanked 10 points on the employment news as going up. I know your bias is long and it would be helpful if you produced a chart to show what you mean. There have been a few request for you to produce charts and you always seem to busy.

All The Best, DMartin

What I have tried to do is present charts earlier in the journal that show my trade techniques. Probably 98 percent or more of my technique has been revealed here at ET.

 

[storm121]

buy1sell2,both of our trading syles are almost identical

my question is why do you reveal your strategy here?As you probably know, once a strategy becomes well known it becomes useless.

my style has always been to post live trades and have other posters figure out why I made a trade.

anyway,for today I see nothing but upside.Good time to buy right now.

blackguard

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from storm121:

buy1sell2,both of our trading syles are almost identical

my question is why do you reveal your strategy here?As you probably know, once a strategy becomes well known it becomes useless.

my style has always been to post live trades and have other posters figure out why I made a trade.

anyway,for today I see nothing but upside.Good time to buy right now.

blackguard

No one will follow my system no matter how much success it would have. It's too simplistic for most and people won't believe that trading requires that little of an effort. Even if they did follow the system, most will not have the bollocks to hold positions through retracements etc. and will see divergences and grails where there are none.