ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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was able to kick 6 of 10 cars near the hi on the overnight.....stopped on the remaining 4 @ 89.75....how you wackos stay up that late anymore is beyond me.i have`nt traded AH in years but i did`nt trust these longs as i believe i`ve been giving the bulls to much credit & am starting to revert back to bear mode heavily.
there is a massive 1200 point dow move looming given the triangle we are coiling up in.....as we get closer to the fomc.
there is a massive 1200 point dow move looming given the triangle we are coiling up in.....as we get closer to the fomc.
I've been meaning to quantify my impression with hard data, and just haven't gotten around to it. This may be the goad I need...
FWIW, though, my impression is that there are an awful lot of gaps these days....gaps that remain unfilled...gaps that, when they are filled, are filled, it seems, as part of a much bigger move. Yesterday's spike up to fill that gap seemed a bit of an outlier -- the kind of behavior we used to see more often, see less often these days.
I agree with you about RTH volume, trader effect, etc. But I wonder if more price discovery is taking place now in the Globex session. Low volume price discovery is still price discovery, and if it sticks, it sticks. Consider, too, that Globex session price discovery is mirroring prime-time price discovery in Asian and European markets. I just wonder if a change-in-character is underway....
When trading ES, I use cash for gap fills, not the contract itself due to eroding premium.
It's a good question. My guess -- and this is begging for some hard data -- is that an AH fill would NOT be legitimate only if my theory about the emerging importance of Globex price discovery is WRONG. Or, to express this in less tangled syntax, an RTH gap would need to be filled in RTH if mt theory about the emerging importance of Globex price discovery (henceforth to be known as the "E.I.O.G.P.D. theory") is wrong. But, again, this is just speculative hoo-hah (sp?
) on my part...
Only picked up 2.5 points here, but what is shown by this is my contention that it very hard to lose big sums of money when trading with the trend. Yes, I only picked up 2.5. but I was with the trend and using a mental stop and went to sleep at normal human hours and still didn't have a big loss. Position sizing is also a big part of the plan. If you feel that you have to watch the screen all day, then the position size is too large. If you feel you can walk away, then your position sizing is either spot on or it is too small. Trade with the trend and live your life with more quality.
Make no mistake. I will only be looking for good long entries right now. If I miss a good extended shorting opportunity ( not just 10 points) , then so be it.
If that should occur, then yes. It is quite likely that I have been shaken out here, but that's ok--it happens sometimes. I would prefer to get shaken out from time to time with a mental stop, than to have an abitrary 2 point stop that means nothing with relation to the charts. I am searching for big winners. Big winners are where the success lies. It does not lie in a constant search for 2 point winners. I don't always get the big winner, but in searching for them, I try and avoid the big loss. Right now, I am simply out as a protective measure while I reevaluate.
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